Chapman v Swisher: Intentional or Not?

No way….and here is why.

First things first, no matter what side you fall on, take a step back and look at it strictly from a baseball perspective. The Reds are in a heated race in the NL Central, currently 1.5 games back of the Cardinals. They hold a 2 run lead with 1 out in the 9^th. Chapman has had problems recently when closing games. With all that in mind, why would he (or the Reds) try and hit Swisher and risk bringing the tying run to the plate? Especially when the tying run is batting .285 (.300 against lefties) and has 8 HRs. It does not make baseball sense.

Second, Chapman has had control issues in the past. In fact, that is not the first ball he has had sail to the backstop. I have no question the first pitch was nothing but a pitch that slipped. The second pitch however, may have had a purpose. Watch it again. After the first pitch, Swisher stares at Chapman; it looks like Chapman took exception to the stare. I believe the second pitch was in response to the stare - Chapman essentially telling Swisher the first one was a mistake, but if you think I was throwing at you, I will show you what a brush back would look like. Was it smart? No. Was Chapman trying to hit Swisher? No. Even Swisher’s teammate Jason Giambi (yes he is still alive and playing baseball) doesn’t believe it was intentional. Despite a history of control problems, if Chapman wanted to hit Swisher, he would have hit him.

Lastly, there is no history of bad blood between Chapman and Swisher (in fact I think that was the first time they faced each other) nor the teams themselves. It was simply a case of poor control at 100mph and some over reacting (especially from the Indians announcer Tom Hamilton – who sounds like a jackass on the broadcast – one would think a 24 year old veteran of the booth would know the game and situation a bit better).

 

The Correlation of Joey Votto’s Power Numbers and Reds Wins

 

As I suspected, I touched Superman’s cape and Reds fans lost their collective minds. Days after posting my ‘somewhat’ scathing article of the Mashing Mountie, I spent a few days in the Music City with some of the most avid 12oz Pro-Spective readers and I received endless tongue lashings for my opinion on Votto. However, like most who read the article, they missed my point:

I do not dislike Joey Votto (as has been reported) – Quite the opposite. I love Joey Votto. I think he is the best player in baseball and would not want anyone else on my team.

I also do not think Votto was sucking, nor was I underestimating his record setting OBP pace – My point was simply this: the success of this Reds team parallels the power numbers and RBIs of Joey Votto, and, in order to have the success Reds fans want – to win in the playoffs, not just get there – the Reds need Votto to do more than simply “get on base.” Don’t get me wrong, I love sabermetrics and few like walks and singles as much as me, however, Votto needs to produce doubles, HRs, and RBIs in volume for this team to win.

 In May, Votto has proven my point for me. Take a look at the numbers:

Prior to May
	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
	103	17	30	3	4	11	26	29	0.439	0.456	0.896	0.291
April Record: 15-13
May
	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
	73	21	33	7	3	22	15	10	0.551	0.671	1.222	0.452
May Record: 14-5
Since the 12oz article (5/14 - 8 games)
	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
	30	11	16	2	3	6	8	3	0.632	0.900	1.532	0.533
Record since article: 6-2

 

This proves 3 things:

First, and most importantly, I was correct. Coincidence that in May Votto has twice as many doubles (7-3), about the same HRs (3-4), as many RBIs (11), 1/3 of the strikeouts (10-29), and less walks (15-26) in 30 less ABs than he did in April, and the Reds win percentage went from .530 in April to .730 in May? I think not. (Let’s also not forget, the record in May and since the article ran would be 15-4 and 7-1 respectively if Chapman could lay off the pastries!) Votto’s OBP was only up 8 percentage points in May, so why have the Reds gone 14-5 in May and just 15-13 in April? Votto started driving the ball, driving in runs, walking and striking out less.

Second, Joey Votto is a reader of the 12oz Pro-Spective and was inspired/infuriated by my piece last week.

And third, I am responsible for Votto’s increase in production and therefore, the Reds increase in win totals. You are welcome Reds fans.

Oh yeah, by the way, the Reds went 7-2 on the road trip…that is pretty good.

 

Next up, I will insult Aroldis Chapman and he will never blow a save again!

What is wrong with Joey Votto?

I can hear the backlash already at the mere suggestion that Superman Joey Votto is underperforming. Take note, I am not saying Joey Votto is playing bad, I am saying that he is underperforming and not playing up to the standards that Joey Votto has built for himself (numbers as of Tuesday 5/14):

 

The Performing:

1^st in MLB in walks (34)

2^nd in MLB in OBP (.457) – 2^nd only to Shin-Soo Choo

Top 15 in Batting Average (.327 – 13^th)

 

The Underperforming:

Tied for 94^th in RBI (17)

63^rd in Slugging (.465)

Lowest Slugging % of his career and 83 points below his career average.

Tied for 88^th in HR (tied with 33 others – including Yonder Alonso)

Tied for 81^st in Doubles (8 – tied with Drew Stubbs)

Tied for 36^th in strikeouts (37 – only 4 less than Drew Stubbs)

1.8 WAR for those of you Sabermetrics people

.263 average with runners on base

 

Let’s address these one-by-one:

Walks

Leading the league in walks is great. However, if no one is able to drive him in (or the players on base in front of him), the walk is not very useful. Not necessarily Votto’s fault, but the truth.

OBP

See Walks. I like OBP as much as anyone, but I need run production coming from my 3 hitter and my franchise position player.

Average

See walks and OBP.

 RBI

Votto is tied for 94^th in RBI (17) – 2 less than the .207 hitting RBI Machine Zack Cozart, tied with Dustin Pedroia (he of a .207 avg) and 2 less than his leadoff hitter, Shin-Soo Choo. He is on pace for 69 RBI, his lowest total since his first full season (2008 - 59). Last season, Votto had 56 in just 111 games.

 Slugging Percentage

Votto is 58^th in Slugging (.473, which is less than his leadoff hitter Shin-Soo Choo), his lowest Slugging % of his career, and 75 points below his career average. This is a result of his HRs and 2Bs being down.

 HR

Votto has only 4 HRs in 2013 and 121 players have more, or the same amount of HRs as Joey Votto (tied for 88^th with 33 others – including Yonder Alonso). Including last year and the playoffs, Votto has 4 HRs over his last 85 games! He has less than half the HRs of his own leadoff hitter (Choo – 9….maybe Votto should leadoff and Choo bat third?). For those of you that want to say Votto is not a “HR Hitter,” you are correct in some regard…Votto is not a pure HR hitter – he is a power hitter – he has a compact swing that produces a lot of 2Bs and in turn, a lot of HRs as well. This is a guy that, when healthy, has never hit less than 24 HRs in a season; and in his last 2 healthy seasons (2010 and 2011) had 37 and 29 HRs respectively. Say what you want, but that is a HR hitter my friends – a HR hitter that is on pace for 16 HRs after 25% of the season. For more than half a year now, he has stuggled mightily to hit HRs. That is a concern.

 

2B

Tied for 81^st in Doubles (8 – 1 less than Drew Stubbs and Votto has 19 more ABs). This is the most concerning to me. Votto is a doubles machine. Prior to his injury last year, Votto was on pace to set the Major League record for most 2Bs in a season. Fast forward one year and 100 players have as many or more 2Bs than Joey Votto…including Drew Stubbs (Basic rule of thumb, if Stubbs is beating you in anything but a foot race or strikeouts, that ain’t good).

 

Strikeouts

Tied for 36^th in strikeouts (37 – only 4 less than Drew Stubbs) and on pace for 150 strikeouts. This is actually more disturbing than the doubles numbers. Votto has never been a high strikeout guy. In the years when he hit 37 and 29 HRs respectively, he struck out 129 and 125 times. He is on pace for 20% more strikeouts and about half the HRs. That is concerning. Most concerning is how he looks on some of the strikeouts. At times he looks lost and looks as if he is just flipping the bat at the ball. One thing Votto always gave you was good ABs and was never an easy out. He has had more poor ABs this year already than I can remember in his last 2 years combined.

WAR

If you are into Sabermetrics, his WAR is 1.8. That means Votto is giving this team 1.8 more wins over a 162 game season than the average first baseman would. Like Sabermetrics or not, Votto is better than that. For comparison, his WAR in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were 6.7, 6.2, and 5.6 respectively. Meaning his WAR is 3-4 times lower than it has been the last 3 years.

Average with Runners On Base

The last 3 years, Votto has seemed almost automatic with runners on. An RBI machine. This production is what earned him the highest contract in MLB, not his OBP or walk totals. This year Votto is hitting .263 with runners on base – from 2010-2012 he hit .357 with runners on…down 94 points!

 

 

Here’s the point. If I were to give you the numbers alone, and not give you the name, you would say “that is a very good player!” Great OBP, probably a good leadoff guy. The problem is, Votto is not just a very good player. This is a guy that has chased a Triple Crown. This is a league MVP. This is a guy with a $250M+ contract from a small market. He is paid to be great not good. Like it or not, his contract demands that of him. Don’t get me wrong, Votto earned his contract, but he did so by driving in runs, hitting HRs, producing with runners on, not  by simply walking and hitting singles. Walks, singles, and OBP are great…but they don’t get you the largest contract in the majors. “To whom much is given, much is expected.” Votto is paid $25M+ per year. That contract is what it is because of his ability to produce runs, not to just get on base. The good news is that it is only May, Votto seems to be zoning in the last few games, and despite his low power numbers, the Reds have the 2^nd best record in the NL. The bad news is that this power outage is no small sample size. This has been the case now for the last 85 games and 25% of the 2013 season is in the books. This team can make the playoffs with these number from Votto. The goal however, is not to make the playoffs, it is to make a deep run in the playoffs. Lest we not forget what happened in the 2012 playoffs with the power zapped Votto. This team cannot go deep in the playoffs with Votto simply getting on base. To make noise in the playoffs, this team needs Joey Votto to be hitting with the power of Joey Votto.

 

 Yes, I just pulled on Superman's cape.