Bengals v Jaguars Week 4 Preview

While this may not seem like an important game, this is one the Bengals have to win if they expect to make the playoffs. The way the schedule shakes out, the front end of the schedule is friendly, while the backend of the schedule looks to be very tough. Plus, if Ed Hochuli and his pipes are working the game, it must be a big game.

What to Look For:

When the Jaguars Run the Ball

With Bob Bratkowski calling the plays in Jacksonville, I can assure you he will look to establish the run. And, with MJD as his RB, he should be able to do so. MJD is one of the best backs in the league. After winning the rushing title in 2011, MJD is 2^nd in the league this year despite a lengthy holdout. For the Bengals defense, which is ranked 31^st against the run, MJD has to be a concern and their main focus. I believe the game turns on who wins this battle. If the Jags get MJD going against the Bengals porous run defense, they can control the clock and win this game. 

 

Advantage: Jaguars

When the Jaguars Throw the Ball

Don’t look for much here, especially not in the form of creativity and trickery…unless of course you count the shuffle pass! I’m sure ‘Ol Bob will appease Bengals fans by running at least one shuffle pass. Ok, Bratkowski bashing aside, I look for the Bengals to try and force Gabbert to beat him. While the Bengals pass defense is poor (22^nd), so is Gabbert. Gabbert had a brutal 2011, and though he has looked better in 2012, he still looks limited. While Gabbert’s 0 INTs are impressive and his 4 TDs are respectable, his 50.6% completion percentage and 468 yards are not. Gabbert was 23-39 (59%) in Week 1 for 260 yds and 2 TDs in an overtime game. In the 2 games since, Gabbert is 17-40 (42.5%) for 208 yds, including a 7-19 for 53 yds performance against Houston in Week 2. Is that bad? Well, it ain’t good, I’ll tell you that. To make matters worse, 80 of Gabberts 468 yds came on 1 play; take that play away, and on his other 78 attempts, he is averaging less than 5 yds per pass. As for WRs to watch, not much there either. Gabbert’s top guy has 154 yds (80 yds on 1 play), his 2^nd guy (Robinson – 115yds – is out), and Blackmon has 4 catches for 31 yds. There is not a WR on the Jags with more than 8 catches….AJ Green had 9 catches last week alone. If the Bengals defense can stop MJD and force Gabbert to beat them, I don’t think he can.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball

The Bengals are 15^th in rushing and the Jaguars are 30^th in run defense. While the Bengals have leaned more on the pass thus far, look for the Bengals to run it enough to keep the Jaguars honest. With Green and Hawkins, I expect to see a deep secondary and help on Green. That should leave things open for BJGE. If he can take advantage of that space, he forces the Jaguars to make a tough decision: Move someone up in the box to stop the run and chance the Bengals deep ball, or let the Bengals run it down their throat like the Texans did in Week 2 (216 yds).

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball

The Bengals are 4^th in pass offense and the Jaguars are 21^st in pass defense. After last weeks’ aerial show, I expect to see a deep secondary (maybe zone) and help all day on Green. Against similar WRs and TEs (Houston), the Jaguars defense kept everything in front of them (nothing over 18 yds and only 21 yds for Johnson). Look for a similar tactic against the Bengals, forcing the Bengals passing attack to beat the Jaguars with short stuff. I expect more passes to Hawkins in the slot, as well as Gresham and BJGE over the middle. Even though Green is 2^nd in the NFL in receiving yards, I expect a quiet day from him, but big days for other WRs. However, I do expect the Bengals to attempt to suck the Jaguars defense in with the run game and underneath passes in order to take that one deep shot to AJ. With Green, one may be enough.

Advantage: Bengals

Conclusion

Both teams can run and neither can stop the run. Therefore, I believe this one comes down to who can slow the run game the most and create the most in the passing game. I believe that to be the Bengals. I don’t believe the Bengals defense is as bad as it has played, and I don’t believe Gabbert can play as mistake-free as he has so far. Also, the Jaguars have Bob Bratkowski calling plays, the Bengals have Jay Gruden. Advantage: Bengals!

Prediction

I think MJD will get his yards, but not enough to win the game. I believe the Bengals force Gabbert to beat them, and force Gabbert into mistakes.

Bengals 24, Jaguars 14

No No for Homer!

Certain things in sports are burned into your memory and you always remember exactly where you were when they occurred. The Reds winning the 1990 World Series, Tim Krumrie breaking his leg and Lewis Billups dropping the interception in the 1988 Super Bowl, Carson Palmer blowing out his knee in the 2005 Wild Card game, etc. Homer Bailey’s no-hitter will now be added to that list for any Reds fan. While I was alive the last time a Red threw a no-hitter (Tom Browning in 1988), I don’t recall it…probably wasn’t on TV like the 1988 Super Bowl. No-hitter’s are cool to watch no matter who throws it. I have never had the opportunity to see one in person. Before tonight, I had never seen my favorite team throw one either. I never thought the first Reds no-hitter I would see would be thrown by Homer Bailey. In fact, I am having trouble typing ‘Homer Bailey throws a no-hitter.’

Homer has always been one of the more frustrating sports figures in Cincinnati sports history. A first round pick (7^th overall) in 2004, he has always been highly touted with tons of potential (the dreaded ‘P’ word). At times, he has been brilliant. At times he has looked lost. When he first came up, he seemed immature with a poor attitude and he was thrower, not a pitcher. Over the last year, he has begun to learn to pitch rather than just throw. If Homer can find some consistency, he has the ability to be a top of the rotation guy. He has 4 pitches and throws 97+ and has a 3.75 ERA. 3.75 ERA is good, but, he currently has a 2.63 ERA on the road and a 5.16 ERA at home. Like I said, consistency. But, tonight is not a night to talk about his weaknesses. Tonight is a night to tip your cap to a guy that pitched one hell of a game against a respectable team and recorded the first Reds no-hitter I have ever seen. Well done Mr. Bailey. 

Bengals Takedown RG3 and the Redskins in Week 3

After a long weekend in Las Vegas, the fog is beginning to lift and therefore the insight on Sundays exciting game can begin.

What I Liked

 

The Offense/Play Calling

I love the stones it took to come out and run a gimmick play on the first play of the game….I love it even more that it resulted in 73 yard TD pass. Mohamed Sanu through a perfect pass on that deep ball. So good that from our distant Las Vegas sports book seat, we didn’t know Sanu had thrown the pass until halftime. It seems like Gruden is opening up the playbook this year and we are seeing just how dynamic this offense can be. After just 3 TDs of 40+ yards last year, the Bengals already have 5 this year. We also saw a direct snap TD to BJGE and some effective misdirection plays. But, what I like most, was the fact that Gruden’s creative play calling does not consist of a shuffle pass.

38 Points

You will win more than you lose when you score 38 points.

AJ Green

AJ Green has the making of a special NFL WR. After a Pro Bowl rookie season, Green leads the AFC in receiving yards and is 2^nd in the NFL, behind only Calvin Johnson. On Sunday, Green caught 9 of his 11 targets for 183 yards and a TD. And, just for good measure, he took an 11 yard reverse down to the 1 yard line to set up BJGE TD. I am not sure there is a CB in the league that can cover him one-on-one (definitely not anyone on Washington), and this opens things up for the other WRs and TEs.

Andy Dalton

Dalton looked sharp on Sunday (with the exception of the INT, which we will discuss later). 19-27 for 328 yds, 3 TDs and a staggering 12.1 avg and 132.9 QBR. Coming out of college, Dalton was known for his accuracy, but was knocked for his arm strength. After 3 weeks, Dalton and his weak arm have 4 TDs of 40+ yards, is 2^nd in yards per attempt and 4^th in QBR. Better yet, he is seeing the field and spreading the ball. Sunday was a perfect example: the Bengals had 5 players with 25+ yards receiving and Dalton threw 3 TDs to 3 different receivers.

 

WRs Not Named Green

Look, we all know about AJ Green. What we didn’t know about was who would the Bengals have to make teams pay for double covering Green? Well, the answer is multiple players. Andrew Hawkins has been electric this year. Coming into 2012, Hawkins had 23 catches for 263 yds and 0 TDs. After 3 games, Hawkins has 12 catches for 208 yds and 2 TDs (both 50+yds) and is quickly becoming the most dangerous slot receiver in the NFL. And how about Armon Binns? Coaches praised him last year for his work on the practice squad, and there was even some talk that some coaches believed he should have been the #2 at the end of last season. Entering 2012, Binns had 0 catches in the NFL. After 3 games, he has 12 catches for 157 yds and 1 TD, and at 6’3” and 210 lbs, he has shown great hands and good speed. So far, he looks like a much more reliable #2 than Jerome Simpson ever did.

The Defensive Line

Michael Johnson stood out the most. Johnson had 3 sacks on Sunday and 7 hits on RG3. After 6 sacks in 2011, Johnson is showing the potential Bengals fans believed he had. And how nice was it to have Carlos Dunlap back? Dunlap’s presence helps everyone on the D-Line, especially Johnson. With Dunlap in there, Dunlap will get more double teams and Johnson has to take advantage of it (which he did on Sunday). Even with the double teams, Dunlap still wreaked havoc on RG3 with a sack, 3 QB hits, and a critical forced fumble. The D-Line as a whole, played very well on Sunday with 6 sacks and 13 QB hits. They made RG3 pay for running the option ….which, on a side note, RG3 is good, but the Redskins are going to get him killed if they keep using him as they did Sunday.

A Jermaine Gresham Sighting

Was it a huge game? No. But the Bengals don’t need Graham/Gronkowski numbers out of him. What they need is exactly what they got. 5 catches for 64 yds and a TD. Now, if he can just start blocking and not getting penalties, he will be on a roll.

Leon Hall Not Playing

Am I picking on him? Sure, but, the secondary did have their best game of the year so far without Hall playing. Some of that may have been due to the pressure applied by the D-Line, but some of it also had to do with the opposing team not having a WR running around open all day (Hall’s guy).

What I Did Not Like

Not a lot to dislike when you score 38pts and win on the road, but there were a few things.

The Run Defense

 213 yards on 6.3 ypc is not good. The worst part is, the Bengals seemed to know the run was coming, yet still couldn’t stop it. Part of the reason why they couldn’t stop it was because they again showed an aversion to proper tackling. The offense looks good, but the defense can’t keep giving up 30+ points. At some point and time, they are going to need to get it together and stop someone. Hopefully the games against Jacksonville and Miami can cure them.

Rey Maualuga

Picking on Rey would get old if he didn’t keep making it so easy. None of the Bengals LBs played well on Sunday, but Rey stood out. Our friends at Pro Football Focus rated each LB and broke it down well (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/09/24/refo-bengals-redskins-week-3/). According to Pro Football Focus, Rey allowed 7 catches on all 7 passes into his area for 89 yards…and 3 more missed tackles. I don’t know if the Bengals have a better option in the middle, but they can’t have anyone worse right? The stat sheet is again deceiving. Maualuga led the team in tackles with 13 (7 solo), but he again had crucial missed tackles, terrible coverage and no pressure on the QB. And, to stop the run, you have to have a good middle LB. 213 rushing yards tells me the Bengals middle LB is lacking. Kevin Hardy thinks Rey Maualuga is playing bad.

The Refs

Look, all refs (even the real ones) make mistakes, so I am not going to harp on every little thing, but, any fan worth their weight in salt knows that an injury with 0 timeouts left results in a 10 second runoff. They make that call, the last hailmary attempt doesn’t even get attempted (which, by the way, was marked back 5 yards further than it should have been – just sayin).

Conclusion

Overall a good game. The offense was creative, effective, and fun to watch. Anytime you score 38 points on any NFL team, let alone on the road, that is encouraging. However, it is equally discouraging to give up 31 points. The Bengals defense has now given up 102 points in 3 games. Ouch!

Look for the Bengals Jags preview in the next 2 days.

Bengals vs Redskins Preview

This could be an interesting and extremely entertaining game. Both teams have shown the ability to put points on the board in bunches and neither team has shown the ability to stop an opposing offense.

When the Redskins Throw the Ball

The Redskins are starting rookies at QB and RB, but, so far, they have performed like anything but. RG3 has picked up in the NFL right where he left off in college. After throwing for 300+ yds and 2 TDs in a surprising week 1 win in New Orleans, he came back with another strong performance in week 2 (200+ yds passing 1 TD, 1INT 80+ yds rushing) at St. Louis. This is the home opener for Washington and RG3 and look for the Redskins to attack what has been a weak Bengals secondary so far. While the Redskins do not have elite talent at the WR position, neither did Cleveland and yet the Bengals secondary has given up 600+ yards passing in 2 weeks and made a much lesser rookie, Brandon Weeden, look like Tom Brady last week. The Bengals secondary should be aided by the return of top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap and pressure on RG3 will be key. I expect RG3 to have a big day, both running and throwing against the Bengals defense, however, if Dunlap and the Bengals line can get some pressure on the rookie, the Bengals secondary has the talent to take advantage of poorly thrown passes.

When the Redkins Run the Ball

With Mike Shanahan, you never know who will get the bulk of the work in the backfield from game to game, but so far, it looks like it will be the rookie Morris. Morris has played well in the first 2 weeks (185 yds 2 TDs and 4.2 ypc) and the Bengals have had trouble stopping the run against Baltimore and Cleveland. Look for the Redskins to establish the run early to take some pressure off RG3. If the Bengals defense continues to tackle the way they have in the first two weeks, Morris may be able to get going and open up the deep ball for RG3.

When the Bengals Throw

The Bengals passing game looked a little off in week 1 in Baltimore and for much of the first half against Cleveland. However, in the second half of the Cleveland game, it really started to click. Andy Dalton is an accurate passer and has the weapons that can cause trouble for an underwhelming secondary like that of the Redskins. The Bengals have one of the elite young WRs in AJ Green and an explosive slot guy in Andrew Hawkins. Green will likely see double coverage, leaving Hawkins one-on-one with a S, LB, or nickel CB, all match ups that favor Hawkins. On the opposite side, the Bengals have an underappreciated #2 in Armon Binns. Binns is a good route runner with good hands and takes advantage of the double teams Green commands. Lastly, the Bengals feature one of the top TE talents in Jermaine Gresham. Though he has had a slow start to 2012, look for Gresham to take advantage of a defense likely to be focused on Green and Hawkins. With star DEs Orakpo and Carriker out, Washington may have trouble stopping this passing attack.

When the Bengals Run the Ball

The Bengals O-line, though inexperienced and still adapting to a new C, has performed admirably in the first two weeks, especially in their run blocking. BJGE has had 2 strong weeks (166 yds and 4.3 ypc) and rarely gets stopped for no gain. He has also been an effective outlet to Andy Dalton in the passing game. Also, the Bengals look to get Bernard Scott back this week. While the amount of which Scott will be used has yet to be determined, he should provide a good change of pace to BJGE and his shiftiness could provide a welcomed compliment to BJGE’s power running. With Steven Jackson getting hurt early last week, the Redskins defense has yet to face a power runner, yet, they still were unable to stop the Rams running attack last week (151 yds). I expect the Bengals to be able to run the ball early and often on this defense, further opening up the passing attack.

Prediction

This is a tough game to predict. Both teams can score and neither team has shown the ability to stop their opponent from scoring. I predict more of the same, and expect a shootout. Until RG3 looks like a rookie, I refuse to treat him as such, and therefore, I believe this game turns on home field advantage and the added element of RG3’s ability to run and extend plays. That combined with the Bengals poor secondary play makes me reluctantly lean towards the Redskins in a highly entertaining game.

 

Redskins 34, Bengals 31