After 134 games, the Reds stand a season high 30 games over
.500 (87-57) and posses a 11.5 game lead in the NL Central. While they have not
“technically” clinched the division, with just 18 games left, the Reds could go
7-11 and the Cardinals would have to go 19-0 just to tie. I like those chances.
So, with the division all but wrapped up, let’s take a look at the confidence
we have in each player/coach going into October baseball (10 = Total Confidence, 1 = No Confidence).
Starting Rotation
The rotation has been the strength of the Reds this year,
and in the playoffs, pitching wins. There was a stretch in July/August where
this rotation was the best in baseball, however, it has been anything but
consistent of late:
Cueto
He has been an absolute stud this year. A legitimate Cy Young candidate and arguably the most underrated pitcher in baseball (see being left off the All-Star team for proof). However, he has not been himself in September. In two September starts, Cueto has a 6.55 ERA. At 192.2 innings, he is 7 innings above his career high. Could he be wearing down? Possibly. With a 11.5 game lead, skipping a start and giving him extra rest may not be a bad idea. The next 18 games mean very little and if the Reds want to make noise in October, they need the Cy Young candidate Cueto, not the 6.55 ERA Cueto.
Confidence = 8 - He
is still Cueto
Latos
Since his brutal start (5.97 ERA in April), he has very quietly become the player the Reds thought they were getting when they traded for him in the offseason – notice how we have not heard the trade detractors for months now? At 12-4 with an ERA of 3.72 and a 1.20 WHIP, I give Jocketty credit for pulling the trigger on this trade. He has been the best pitcher on this staff over the past month.
Confidence = 8 – Pitching in his first pennant race
Arroyo
Or, as I refer to him, “Frisbee!” This guy is the model of consistent and possibly the most underappreciated pitcher in the majors. Is he a #1? No. Never was and never will be. But he is a great #3 or #4 starter. Pencil him in every year for 10-15 wins, 200+ innings, a lot of HRs served up, and an ERA of about 4.00 (which is partially inflated by his inevitable 1-2 terrible starts per year). This year, 12-7, 3.66 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Not bad for a 3rd starter. At this point, he is your #3 starter in the playoff rotation.
Confidence = 7 – Just
hope he doesn’t have one of his “Bronson Head Scratch Games” in the playoffs
Bailey
The most frustrating Reds pitcher I can recall. At times looks like a #1. Then can look like a AA pitcher the next game. The guy has good stuff, his problem lies between his ears. When things are going well, he is great, when something goes wrong (error, bad call, etc.) he can lose focus fast. At this point, as scary as it sounds, he will be the 4th starter in the playoffs.
Confidence = 4.5 – Good Bailey is a 7. Bad Bailey is a 2
Leake
Another tough guy to get your head around. His stuff is not overpowering. He lives and dies on location. When he is hitting his spots, he is a legit #3. When he is not hitting his spots, he is not worthy to be in the rotation. It is a fine line when he takes the mound. You would love to have him on your playoff roster because the guy can also hit (career .270 hitter), but he may be the odd man out
Confidence = 4.5 – Again, simply because of his lack of
consistency
Infield
1B Votto
Quite possibly the best hitter in baseball. However, he has not looked the same since coming off his knee injury and is visibly favoring his left knee. Since rejoining the team, he has played 7 games: 6-21 (.286), 9 bb and only 1 extra base hit. Prior to his knee injury, he was an MVP candidate. If the Reds have any hope of making a run, they need more than .286 and 1 extra base hit from this guy.
Confidence = 8 – Prior to the injury 10. Post injury 7
2B Phillips
The team MVP this year. Best defensive 2B in the league and the only guy in the lineup that can hit, and succeed, at any spot in the order. When Votto went down, Phillips stepped up.
Confidence = 8 – Can be prone to long slumps and base
running blunders.
SS Cozart
Has had a great rookie season at the plate and in the field. Interested to see where Baker bats him now that Votto is back. I like his bat, I just don’t think he is a leadoff hitter at this point in his career.
Confidence = 5 – Still a rookie and oblique injuries are
dicey
3B Rolen/Frazier
Frazier has had a hell of a rookie year and should be the ROY (though he seems to go under the national media radar because his name is not Bryce Harper). He hits for average, has power, and is an above average fielder at 3B, 1B and LF. He, Ludwick and Phillips carried this team in Votto’s absence. Rolen was brutal in the first half of the season - even having some (possibly me) calling for his retirement. However, he looks like he has turned back the clock in the second half of the season. If he can stay healthy, he can help this team in the playoffs.
Rolen Confidence = 6 – Due to health issues
Frazier Confidence = 6 – Still a rookie.
C Hanigan
A very underappreciated catcher and the best situational hitter on the team. A .290 hitter, .377 OBP, a good defensive catcher and excellent at calling a game from behind the plate. Should hit higher than 8th in order to take advantage of his hitting.
Confidence = 7
Outfield
RF Bruce
The most frustrating Reds hitter of recent memory. Will have 1 to 2 months a year when he is the best player in baseball, and then completely disappear the other months. His defense and arm are above average, and, lucky for the Reds, he seems to be catching fire at the right time. Let’s hope it continues into the playoffs.
Confidence = 5 – Too streaky of a hitter to go any higher
than a 5.
CF Heisey/Stubbs
If I were coaching the team, only Heisey would be here. But, since I am not, I know Stubbs will play. While I don’t think Heisey is the answer at CF, I think he offers more than Stubbs. Yes, Stubbs may get to a few more balls per year than Heisey, but Heisey’s .284 average will make up for it. I don’t care how fast a guy is, no player batting .217 with 144 strikeouts should play 120 games per year (nonetheless bat in the 1 or 2 spot most of the time). Speed is great….if you get on base. You can’t steal first.
Heisey Confidence = 4
Stubbs Confidence = -2 - You are reading that correct, that is a
minus 2
RF Ludwick
Terrible start to the season, but has managed to become one of the best free agent signings around the league in 2012. Hitting .275 with 25 HR and 75 RBI is much more than was expected of him. Looks a bit tired of late and could benefit from some rest going into the post season.
Confidence = 6
Bullpen Confidence = 9
The best bullpen in the majors this year. Proof? The worst
ERA in the bullpen is 3.33 ….and that guy (Ondrusek) got sent down to the
minors at the end of the season. Find another team that sends a guy with a 3.33
ERA to the minors! The key to this bullpen is Chapman’s health. With Chapman
healthy, the game really becomes a 6 inning game. If the starter can give you
the lead after 6, you can hand it to Marshall/Simon in the 7th,
Broxton in the 8th, and Chapman in the 9th.
Bench Confidence = 2 – This may be a bit high
When the second best hitter off your bench is your #5
pitcher, that is not good. On days when Heisey and Frazier start, your bench
averages are: .305, .270, .240, .217, .201, and .176. Not scaring many pitchers
with those stats.
Coaching Confidence = 4
This may seem low, but I do not trust Baker, especially in
crucial situations. Look, the team is 30 over .500, so to say Baker has nothing
to do with that would be naïve. However, for most of the season, his 1 and 2 hitters have been hitting .243
and .217 respectively. That is worst in the majors. Then, when he does sit
Stubbs, if Valdez is playing, he insists on batting Valdez second (btw, Valdez
is hitting .207 this year – but hey, he has speed). Imagine what their record
would be without his crazy lineups? Worse yet, he has better options. Phillips
should have been leading off all year, regardless of injuries. The second
hitter could come from Frazier, Hanigan, Heisey or Cozart. Stubbs, when he
plays, should bat 8th(9th if Leake, Latos or Arroyo are
pitching). If they bat .243 and .217 against all MLB teams (bad pitchers included), imagine what those averages
translate to against playoff caliber pitchers? .150? A crazy “Baker Lineup”
could get this team knocked out early. Baker does a good job of managing
players and egos (he has taken 3 teams to the playoffs, has 1,500+ wins), but
his in game decisions are head scratching at best. He manages “By the Book”
when you wish he wouldn’t, then, tosses “The Book” out the window when you wish
he would manage by said book! I would love to eat crow about Baker and see this
team win the World Series, but, there is a reason he has not won a
Championship.
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