8 Divisions in 8 Days: NFC North Preview

In 2012, the NFC North had 3 teams with 10+ wins. The 4^th team (Detroit), made the playoffs the year before. This is possibly the deepest division in the NFL in 2013 and the hardest to predict. Is Minnesota for real? Can GB continue to win while getting Rodgers sacked 50+ times? Can Cutler finally live up to his hype? And can Detroit stop being Detroit? We look at that and more.

 

1)    Green Bay

2012 Record: 11-5

2013 Prediction: 12-4

Confidence in Pick: 75%

Losses: Greg Jennings, Charles Woodson, Cedric Benson, Bryan Bulaga (torn ACL), Donald Driver (retirement)

Pickups: Datone Jones, Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin,

 

Reasons for Optimism:

 

Aaron Rodgers - This is a QB league and Rodgers is the best QB in this division (maybe in all of the NFL). In 2012, Rodgers had 4,295 yards and not a single 1,000 yard receiver. Yes they lost Greg Jennings, but they really didn’t have him 2012 either (8 games, 36 receptions, 366 yards and 4 TDs). Rodgers still has a dangerous core of receiving options (Nelson, Cobb, Jones and Finley) and now, with the drafting of Lacy and Franklin, he should have the best running backs of his career.

 

Rookie RBs – When has Rodgers ever had a competent running game? They thought they might have solved the problem last year when they signed Benson. An early injury derailed that, so GB looked to the draft. While Lacy is the higher pick and bigger name, I actually like Franklin better because of his speed and receiving ability. Either way, teams will have to respect Lacy and Franklin which will make the passing attack that much more effective.

 

Big Play Defense - While the defense causes me some concern, they were a top 15 defense in 2012 and with this offense, they just need to make some plays and keep the opposing team within striking distance. This defense has the play makers to do just that (Matthews, Raji, Jones).

 

 

Reasons to be Cautious:

 

The Offensive Line - In 2012, no QB was sacked more than Aaron Rodgers (51), and if there is one thing that could quickly derail this team, it would be an injury to Rodgers. Some teams are built well enough to withstand an injury to their QB (at least for a short period) - GB is not one of them. Normally a season ending injury to the starting LT (Bulaga) would be of concern, but when a line gives up 51 sacks, could his replacement do much worse?

 

Safety - The Packers decided to go with youth and not resign Charles Woodson. While I understand this move, I did not like it. Woodson is a great and savvy leader and given the pass happy offenses of Detroit and Chicago, along with the WR’s they will face in this division (most notably Calvin Johnson and Marshall), this could be a move the comes back to haunt them.

 

 

Overall:

This may be the best division in football and the team I am picking has huge question marks at O-Line and safety, so to say I have concerns with this pick would be an understatement. However, to me, Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL and heads and heels above Cutler, Ponder and Stafford (especially the former 2). In a league built around QBs, I default to the best QB – Rodgers. However, if Rodgers were to go down, this could quickly turn into a 4 or 5 win team because they rely on him that much.

 

 

2)    Chicago

2012 Record: 10-6; 3^rd Place

2013 Prediction: 10-6

Confidence in Pick: 30%

Losses: Brian Urlacher, Lovie Smith

Pickups: Marc Trestman, Martellus Bennett, Jermon Bushrod, Kyle Long, Jon Bostic, Khaseem Greene

 

Reasons for Optimism:

 

The “Good” Jay Cutler – This is the Jay Cutler that has football “experts” oozing each year because of his strong arm, gun slinger mentality, ability to “make all the throws,” etc. It is the Jay Cutler who shows up a few times a year and looks to be a top 5 QB in the NFL. Cutler can make all the throws, he does have the physical tools to be a great QB, and he has the weapons to be dangerous. If he can ever be this guy from week to week, the Bears could dust off the Super Bowl shuffle under Cutler’s leadership.

 

The “Good” Brandon Marshall – Like Cutler, Marshall has the physical tools to be one of the best at his position. Like Cutler, there is a lack of consistency in his game, some maturity issues, and a big question mark between his ears.

Improved O-Line – The Bears O-Line was dreadful in 2012; so bad Cutler began assaulting his own lineman mid-game. While I am not designating this revamped O-Line to be a top 10 line, they should be better than their 2012 counterpart, and despite the lines’ struggles in 2012, the Bears did still finish 10-6. If the 2013 line can keep Cutler alive and upright, this team could be tough.

 

Matt Forte – One of the best RBs in the league and a RB I feel was greatly underutilized in 2012. With an improved O-Line, an offensive-minded coach, and an improved passing attack, Forte may be poised for a big year in 2013.

 

 

Reasons to be Cautious:

 

The “Bad” Jay Cutler – This is the Jay Cutler that has caused his career record to hover around .500 (51-42 -- .500 entering 2011) and his TD/Int ratio to hover around 1 (1.36/1) – both very poor for a guy that has had a talent like Marshall almost his entire career. Cutler’s teams in Denver were bad, prompting him to take chances he may not otherwise have taken. However, since joining the Bears in 2009, he has had a Super Bowl caliber defense which did not require taking chances and simply needed a competent QB who could protect the ball (this is a defense that made the Super Bowl just 3 years prior with Rex Grossman at the helm). Cutler has done very little protecting the football in his 4 years with the Bears, Cutler has just 19 more TDs than Ints (82-63 – 1.3/1 TD/Int ratio – actually worse than his TD/Int ratio in Denver 1.46/1). Factor in rushing TDs (3) and his fumbles (33 in 4 years!), Cutler actually turns the ball over 1.13 times for every 1 TD he scores (85 TDs to 96 turnovers).

 

The “Bad” Brandon Marshall – Despite his physical gifts, Marshall continues to fight consistency issues, maturity issues, and seems to display a big question mark between his ears.

Firing Lovie – Usually 10-6 does not get a coach fired. Not so in Chicago. While this team had some underperforming years under Smith, he seemed to be loved in the locker room. Players liked Smith, respected him, and played hard for him. If things start going bad, this locker room could turn on Trestman.

 

Not Re-signing Urlacher – Sure he wasn’t the same player he once was, but he is an all-time great and an even better all-time leader.  Urlacher’s on-field contributions paled in comparison to his on and off-field leadership. With the firing of Smith and the way the team parted with Urlacher, I believe this locker room is a ticking time bomb which will explode if they do not get off to a quick start.

 

Hiring Trestman – It is bad enough when you fire a well-liked players coach after going 10-6, but when you replace him with a guy from the CFL who has not been in the NFL for 10 years? I like the track record Trestman has with QBs, and he did win 2 Grey Cups, but the CFL and NFL are two different critters (as Rocket Ismail). While I think Trestman has the potential to develop a potent offense, I don’t like this fit in a veteran locker room that is bitter that their coach and leader (Urlacher) were let go. If things start going bad before he has won over this locker room (like Smith had), this team could turn on him quick. 

 

Overall:

This team has the potential to be a very potent offense. Potential. Most of that potential rests on the ability of the O-Line to keep Cutler upright and the ability of Cutler to distinguish players wearing Bears jerseys from those wearing non-Bear jerseys. Maybe Trestman can change this, but with Cutler’s attitude I don’t think this tiger can change his stripes.

 

 

3)    Detroit

2012 Record: 4-12; 4^th Place

2013 Prediction: 7-9

Confidence in Pick: 25%

Losses: Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Jeff B ackus, Steven Petermen, Gosder Cherilus, Sammie Hill, Jason Hanson, Titus Young,

Pickups: Reggie Bush, Glover Quin, C.J. Mosley, David Akers (or Havard Rugland), Nate Burleson (back from injury), Ryan Broyles (back from injury)

 

 

Reasons for Optimism:

 

Offensive Talent - Talent alone, this is the most talented offense in the league (O-Line excluded). In 2012, the Lions featured a QB (Stafford) who was 2^nd in the NFL with nearly 5,000 yards (4,967), a WR (Calvin Johnson) who led the NFL with 1,964 yards, a big 1^st round TE with 567 yards (Pettigrew) and now they add one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league (Bush) and get Ryan Broyles and Nate Burleson back. This passing attack will not be able to be covered, and now with a dual threat like Bush in the backfield, the Lions can take advantage of teams playing strictly the pass.

 

Defensive Talent – With Suh, Fairley and Ansah, this defense could be dominant. Could. Under Schwartz, this defense has been best known for lack of discipline and selfishness. No defense with Suh and Fairley up the middle should be ranked 16^th in the rush, but that is exactly what the Lions were in 2012. If Suh, Fairley and Ansah continue to focus on sacks, this trend may continue.

 

Reasons to be Cautious:

 

Offensive Lines - When taking into consideration only the skill positions (WR, TE, RB) and QB, I believe this to be the most talented offense in the league …however, skill positions are only as good as the line that creates their holes or protects their QB, and therein lies the problem with the Lions. The Lions O-Line (a below average squad at best in 2012) is tasked with protecting an injury-prone QB on a pass happy offense and they lost both starting tackles. Oh, and they play in a division that is home to Julius Peppers, Jared Allen and Clay Matthews. That is concerning to me and should be concerning to Lions fans, coaches and front office personnel alike.

 

Jim Schwartz - Nothing is worse than a highly talented yet undisciplined team, and that is exactly what the Lions have been the last few years. Discipline starts from the top and it is clear that the Lions lack it at all levels of the organization: Management – see the 1990’s and most of the 2000’s for a great example (record, employing Matt Millen, continuing to employ Matt Millen, drafting Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Titus Young, etc); coaches: see Jim Schwartz vs Jim Harbaugh for a great example of lacking discipline; and players: Suh stepping on players, Pettigrew shoving officials, etc. Schwartz should be credited for taking over a 0-16 team and getting them to the playoffs in his tenure, but I don’t see him as a long term answer.

 

Finesse – Finesse teams don’t usually win in this league. The Lions are filled with finesse players and seem to lack the hardnosed and disciplined players needed. Even Fairley and Suh, despite their power, play more like finesse players.

 

 

Overall:

This team will put up a lot of points and will be great for fantasy owners, but I don’t see them putting up a lot of wins. I do not trust the coaches of this team, I do not trust the O-Line of this team, I do not trust the D-Line of this team and I believe this team lacks leadership. That is a recipe for more losses than wins. The talent on offense will be enough to get this team close to .500, but not enough to mask their weaknesses and make it to the playoffs. Chew on this for a minute. The Lions made the playoffs in 2011 at 10-6. Since their 5-0 start in 2011, the Lions are 9-19 (includes their playoff loss), and those 9 wins came against teams with a combined .396 winning percentage (2011 – 33-47; 2012 – 24-39-1) and included 1 victory over a team that finished with a record above .500 (Seattle).

 

 

4)    Minnesota

2012 Record: 10-6; 2^nd Place

2013 Prediction: 6-10

Confidence in Pick: 35%

Losses: Percy Harvin

Pickups: Greg Jennings, Cordarelle Patterson

 

Reasons for Optimism:

 

Adrian Peterson – Hard not to like a guy that runs for the second most yards in NFL history just 8 months removed from tearing his ACL. Peterson is a physical specimen and one of the few throwback workhorse RBs left in the NFL. Nothing is more impressive than when a defense knows a RB is getting the ball yet cannot stop him.

 

Jared Allen – Possibly the most under-rated player in the NFL. For a guy that has averaged an impressive 13.0 sacks per year over the course of his 9 year career, you don’t here a lot about him. For reference, Reggie White averaged 13.2 sacks per year. Allen is 16^th on the all-time sack list with 117.0. Another season of 13 sacks would move him up to 6^th; 1.5 behind Michael Strahan. And the best part about Allen is not his sacks; for most of his career Allen has shamelessly rocked a mullet and cutoff jorts!

 

 

Reasons to be Cautious:

 

The Vikings Offense – I believe the Vikings 2012 playoff run was a perfect storm of good luck. Rarely do you see such an imbalanced offense (2^nd rushing; 31^st passing) make the playoffs – at least not without a dominant defense – which the Vikings did not have (16^th overall). Now the Vikings lost their leading receiver Percy Harvin. Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson do not make up for the loss of Harvin. Jennings was a product of Aaron Rodgers and Cordarelle Patterson is a rookie with some maturity issues (sounds like Jennings may have maturity issues as well).

 

Christian Ponder – I have not seen anything thus far that makes me believe Ponder is an everyday starting QB. He has been serviceable, but in 2012, he was the QB of the league’s 31^st ranked passing attack and has a career completion percentage which is less than 60%. If he had any RB not named Adrian Peterson, this team would not have sniffed the playoffs in 2013. In 27 games, Ponder has 4,788 yards and 31 TDs, that is less than a whole season for the upper echelon QBs in the league. Eventually Ponder needs to carry his weight and not rely so much on AP. At 28, who knows how much longer he will have an AP which can be leaned on. 2013 is likely a big season for Ponder. A step backwards may result in Minnesota exploring new QBs for 2014.

 

Vikings Receiving Weapons – Greg Jennings was very good in GB. So was every other receiver. Jennings will find out very quickly how much his numbers were a product of Aaron Rodgers and not his own abilities. At a generous 6’0”, 195 lbs, and less than blazing speed, Jennings is not your typical #1 WR. This was not a problem when he had Rodgers. It is likely to be a problem when he has Ponder throwing the ball and Jerome Simpson on the other side. Speaking of Simpson, as Bengals fans know, the guy has freakish talent but is as reliable as a Kim Kardashian marriage. Cordarelle Patterson has great talent, but maturity has been a knock on him and with a suddenly mouthy Jennings and an unproven QB, will Patterson be kept in check? I like Kyle Rudolph, but, with less than 500 yards in 2012, I don’t think he is going to take much coverage away from the WRs.

 

 

Overall:

I believe this team made the 2012 playoffs based on AP and a whole lot of Smoke and Mirrors. Rarely does a team with the 31^st ranked passing attack and 16^th ranked defense make the playoffs. AP was just that good in 2012. I don’t see AP repeating that season in 2013 and I don’t see marked improvement in the passing game and defense.

 

 

 

Final 53: Bengals Roster Predictions

I don’t remember a year where the talent has been so deep. In the past, it was always the Bengals scouring the waiver wire on cut-down day looking to fill holes. Now it is the other way around. There are a lot of good players that will be cut by the Bengals on Saturday and will be playing somewhere else on Sunday. The Bengals have a great problem, they have too many good players. The talent on this team will make cut-down day 2013 a very interesting day. Here are my predictions for the Final 53 (in parenthesis is how many I believe they will keep at each position).

 

Quarterback (2)

Andy Dalton, Josh Johnson

Cut: John Skelton

Practice Squad: Zac Robinson (currently on PUP)

I think this one is easy. The Bengals aren’t going to keep a 3^rd QB and Johnson has outplayed Skelton and offers more with his ability to run.

 

Running Backs (4)

BJGE, Bernard, Peerman, Burkhead

Cut: Herron, Scott

Practice Squad: Herron (if he makes it through waivers, which is doubtful)

Herron has earned a spot on the team, as has Burkhead. Both contribute on special teams and both contribute on the ground. I think Burkhead offers more in the passing game and I don’t think Burkhead would escape waivers in order to make the practice squad. While I don’t think Herron will escape waivers either, I believe he has a better chance of doing so. Hence, Burkhead makes the team. Bernard Scott’s time with the Bengals is done.

 

Fullback (1)

Orson Charles

Cut: John Conner

PUP: Pressley

Conner is the better FB and deserves to make the team. However, Charles has more potential and offers more to the offense. With Pressley on the PUP list, I believe the Bengals take the chance with Charles and if it doesn’t work, they bring Pressley on once he is eligible.

 

Wide Receivers (7)

AJ, Sanu, Jones, Tate, Hawkins, Whalen, Hamilton

Cut: Sanzenbacher, Roy Roundtree, Taveon Rogers

Practice Squad: Roy Roundtree

I believe the Bengals keep 7 here in order to get Hawkins to the IR Retun list. To get to that list, he has to be on the 53-man roster. If they waive him, he will get claimed. This is where they use the spot they pick up by having Charles as the FB. Once Hawkins is moved, they can add another player. Sanzenbacher played the best of the WRs on the bubble, but he loses out based on the numbers game. Here is why: Whalen makes it over Sanzenbacher because of what Whalen provides on special teams (gunner -Sanzenbacher’s contributions – PR/KR – are already occupied by Tate and backed up by Jones and/or Bernard – it was not a coincidence Bernard fielded a punt last night). Hamilton makes it over Sanzenbacher because Hamilton has more potential and won’t clear waivers. Plus, one of your WRs doesn’t dress on Sundays – it doesn’t make sense for that WR to be Sanzenbacher – it does make sense if that WR is Hamilton.

 

Tight Ends (2)

Gresham, Eifert

Cut: Smith

Not much to discuss here. Smith was brought in as insurance. Charles is the 3^rd TE and blocking TE as well as the FB, making Smith dispensable.

 

Offensive Line (9)

Whitworth, Boling, Cook, Zeitler, Smith, Collins, Roland, Hawkinson, Pollack

Cut: Fragel, Sullen, Robinson, Johnson

Practice Squad: Fragel, Johnson

There are some surprises here. Originally, I thought the Bengals would keep Fragel because he wouldn’t clear waivers to make the PS. Then I saw him play. He will be cut, and he will make the PS. I also thought Robinson would win the starting center position. He did not. I believe the versatility of Pollack gets him on the team as a backup G/C. TJ Johnson should be able to get through to the PS which gives the Bengals a pure C if they would have an injury.

 

Defensive Line (10)

Dunlap, Atkins, Peko, MJ, Still, Thompson, Gilberry, Geathers, Hunt, Moch

Cut: Stephens, Evans

Practice Squad: Stephens, Evans

Usually they would only keep 8 or 9, however, given the play and versatility of Moch (DE, LB, teams), combined with Lamur’s injury, I think Moch makes the team either as a 10^th DL or 7 LB. In the last 2 years, Moch has 7.5 sacks in 8 preseason games…or, more like 7.5 sacks in 8 halfs of football. He could help this team. Hunt, though raw, makes it as well because of his potential and the fact that he won’t clear waivers. Stevens and Evans are good candidates for the PS.

 

Line Backers (6)

Burfict, Harrison, Maualuga, DiManche, Rey, Schaffer

IR: Lamur, Porter, Joiner

What was to be one of the most interesting position battles was cleared up by a string of devastating injuries. The Lamur injury is very disappointing as I was very excited about him in 2013. He is likely their most athletic LB, but a LB with a separated shoulder is not a good thing, so I see him going on IR. His loss is Moch and Schaffer’s gain. I believe the loss of Lamur causes the Bengals to feel the need to keep both Moch and Schaffer…which is not a bad thing. No way DiManche doesn’t make the team: 1) he earned a spot (and playing time), and 2) he won’t make it through waivers. If they do cut a LB and keep Moch as their 6^th LB, I see it being Schaffer, though I don’t think they can get him through to the practice squad.

 

Cornerbacks (5)

Hall, Newman, Jones, Kirkpatrick, Ghee

Cut: Prater, Lewis-Harris, McCalebb

Practice Squad: Prater, Lewis-Harris

The poor play of Prater and Lewis-Harris, combined with the Lamur injury, cause both players to be cut and the Bengals to enter the season with just 5 CB’s (5 very good ones though). Both should be able to make it to the PS whereby they could be brought back if needed.

 Safety (4)

Nelson, Iloka, Williams, Miles

Cut: Mays

This is a tough one. Outside of Nelson, I was not impressed with any of the other 4 – so unimpressed that I wonder if Crocker won’t get a call after before the season starts. I don’t see the point in keeping Mays. He has been given opportunity after opportunity and done nothing but disappoint. I think it is time for the Bengals to cut ties and move on. Miles is a special teams stud, so I see him staying over Mays, and Williams was a 4^th round pick this year, so he has more upside than Mays at this point. At this point you know what you get from Mays (and it isn’t good), so let’s see what the rookie can give the Bengals. Iloka starts more so by default than anything else.

 

Special Teams (3)

Nugent, Huber, Harris

 

Time to see if I am the Joe Lunardi of Bengal’s Rosterology!

Fantasy Football: Overrated/Underrated

Believe it or not, the fantasy football season is barreling down upon us. Also barreling down on you is useless crappy fantasy advice left and right. No worries my friends! That is where I come in. What are my credentials you ask? I believe that in 15 years of fantasy football I have a career .500 record! I can guarantee that by taking my advice, you too should finish someone in the middle of the pack….but hey, at least you won’t suck!

 **Note: The ‘Overrated’ designation does not mean the player sucks, it simply means the player is going to under produce based on their draft position and a similar player (production wise) could be had later in the draft. Likewise, the ‘Underrated’ designation does not mean the player is great, but simply that the player will over produce based on where they are drafted.

 

Quarterbacks

Overrated

1) Colin Kaepernick

2) Cam Newton

3) Matt Ryan

4) Andrew Luck

5) Russell Wilson

 

Underrated

1) Alex Smith

2) Carson Palmer

3) Josh Freeman

4) Tony Romo

5) Eli Manning

 

Running Backs

Overrated

1) Darren McFadden

2) DeMarco Murray

3) Ryan Mathews

4) Ray Rice

5) Steven Jackson

 

Underrated

1) Daryl Richardson

2) Mark Ingram

3) Ahmad Bradshaw

4) Johnathan Franklin

5) Lamar Miller

 

Wide Receivers

Overrated

1)      Dez Bryant

2)      Andre Johnson

3)     Mike Wallace

4)     Greg Jennings

5)      Calvin Johnson

 

Underrated

1) Kenny Britt

2) Chris Givens

3) Lance Moore

4) Denarius Moore

5) Miles Austin

 

Tight Ends

Overrated

1) Rob Gronkowski

2) Vernon Davis

3) Jermichael Finley

4) Kyle Rudolph

5) Jared Cook

 

Underrated

1) Rob Housler

2) Heath Miller

3) Jordan Cameron

4) Tony Moeaki

5) Jermaine Gresham

 

D/ST & K

If you are looking for some tips on underrated/overrated K’s and Defenses:

1) You came to the wrong place

2) You aren’t winning your league

Hard Knocks Episode 3

While episode 3 was good (what Hard Knocks episode is not?), I think it was my least favorite so far. Here is what I took from episode 3

 

I have said it before, and I will say it again, this team is simply enjoyable to watch. They seem like a bunch of good guys that legitimately enjoy each other. That could not be said of the 2009 team on Hard Knocks.

James Harrison is a large and solid dude.

I like George Iloka at safety, but he has to be smarter – heat of the moment or not, why would you ever punch a man in the helmet?

One day Orson Charles may be a good blocker. That day has yet to come.

The Rookie Show was great. Especially the mocking of Taylor Mays.

Taylor Mays needs to spend less time worrying about his looks, his backpack collection and day dreaming about his girlfriend and spend more time studying his playbook and working on his craft.

With that said, Taylor Mays needs to be cut.

Speaking of being cut, there is nothing more painful than watching a man get cut and seeing his dreams smashed. I had high hopes for Aaron Maybin and what Zimmer could do with him and he seems like a good dude. I hope he catches on somewhere.

The cutting of players in this year was way more professional than the cutting of players in 2009 (see J.D. Runnels)

The Mike Brown/BJGE seen was awesome!

Mike Brown must not have a mirror in his $450 Million palace – how else could you explain being seen on a national documentary with a hat on that looks like it was recently sat on by Andre Smith?

When he is not so worried about being so arrogant to the media, Marvin can have a somewhat enjoyable personality.

Mike Zimmer is still awesome.

Roster Prediction Part I

In just 11 days, the Bengals have to go from 86 players to 53. He is my early prediction on the final roster.

(Number in parenthesis is my prediction for how many the Bengals will keep at the respective position)

  

Quarterback (2)

Locks: Dalton

My Picks: Josh Johnson

Outside Looking In: John Skelton, Robinson

 

Running Backs (4)

Locks: BJGE, Giovanni Bernard

My Picks: Peerman, Burkhead

Outside Looking In: Herron, Scott

 

Full Backs (1)

Locks:

My Picks: John Conner

Outside Looking In:

**I don’t see enough out of Charles in order to keep him as the sole FB. I have seen that experiment before (Daniel Coates) and it wasn’t pretty. In the AFC North, a FB is needed.

 

Wide Receivers (6)

Locks: AJ, Sanu, Jones,

My Picks: Sanzenbacher, Tate, Hamilton, Whalen

Outside Looking In: Roundtree, Rogers

 

Tight Ends (3)

Locks: Gresham, Eifert

My Picks: Charles

Outside Looking In: Smith, Quinn

 

Offensive Line (9)

Locks: Whitworth, Boling, Cook, Zeitler, Smith, Collins

My Picks: Robinson, Hawkinson, Roland

Outside Looking In: T.J. Johnson, Pollak

**I believe Fragel will be put on the PUP list and likely moved to IR. If he is not moved to IR and all O-Lineman are healthy when he is eligible to come off, I believe Roland will be waived to make room.

 

Defensive Line (9)

Locks: Dunlap, Atkins, Peko, MJ, Gillberry, Still, Hunt

My Picks: Geathers, Thompson

Outside Looking In: Moch, Stephens, Evans

**I think Moch is the wildcard – if he shows enough, they may keep him in place of Geathers, Thompson, or a 6^th LB. I would love to see Moch on the team, but this team is so deep and I just don’t see how he makes this team.

 

Line Backers (6)

Locks: Burfict, Maualuga, Harrison

My Picks: Lamur, DiManche, Schaffer

Outside Looking In: Vinny Rey, Brandon Joiner, Bruce Taylor

 

Corner Backs (6)

Locks: Hall, Newman, Jones, Kirkpatrick

My Picks: Ghee, Prater

Outside Looking In: Lewis-Harris, McCalebb, Brown

 

Safeties (4)

Locks: Nelson, Iloka, Williams

My Picks: Miles

Outside Looking In: Mays, Dye

 

Long Snapper (1)

Clark Harris

 

Kicker (1)

Nugent

 

Punter (1)

Huber

 

Practice Squad (8)

My Picks: Zac Robinson (QB), Dan Herron (RB), T.J. Johnson (C), Terrence Stephens (DT), Brandon Joiner (LB), Bruce Taylor (LB), Onterio McCalebb, Roy Roundtree (WR)

**Note: I do not believe Herron will make it through waivers to get to the PS, in that situation, I believe Chris Lewis-Harris (CB) makes the PS.

PUP List

Chris Pressley

Bernard Scott

Reid Fragel

 

IR (return)

Andrew Hawkins

 

IR

Sean Porter

 

The Good, the Bad, and the Noticed

 

The Good:

Giovanni Bernard – I love this guys speed, quickness and hands. He had a nice catch coming out of the backfield, which he took for 22 yards. Bernard will add a dynamic this offense has not had since Chris Perry’s one healthy season.

Sanu – Great TD catch on a perfectly thrown ball by Dalton and a nice catch over the middle followed with 2 big-time stiff arms that helped pave the way for a 24 yard gain.

Nugent – Great kickoffs.

Tate – Rarely will you hear this come from me, but Brandon Tate actually had a nice game. He had a nice 20 yard kick return, but, he also had a good game as a WR with a beautiful catch on a pass from Skelton.

YAC – Yards after catch are big in the NFL and the Bengals got some nice YAC on Saturday night from Gio, Sanu, Tate and Hamilton.

Dalton had a picture perfect fade to the back of the end zone for a TD to Sanu. Good to see, as this is a throw Dalton has seemed to struggle with in the pass. With AJ, Gresham and Eifert, this can be a huge staple in the Bengals goal line offense.

Eifert Sighting – Nice to see the rookie in week 2. He looked good with 3 catches for 32 yards.

John Skelton – Skelton looked good. I still think the job is Johnson’s to lose, but the competition is good for both.

Fitzpatrick’s Beard – I know he plays for the Titans, but he is an ex-Bengal, and anytime a man sports a beard that awesome, it has to be recognized. It looked like a mix of lumberjack and homelessness all grown into one chin-strap defying display of face lettuce!

Shawn Williams – Williams took advantage of the opportunity with Iloka out. It seemed like every time I looked up Williams was in on the play…and the stat sheet agreed with me – leading the teams with 11 tackles.

Jayson DiManche – Speaking of guys that seemed to be everywhere, the rookie from Southern Illinois is having a great preseason and making a case for the 53 man roster. 2^nd on the team with 8 tackles this preseason and 1 sack.

J.K. Schaffer – Another rookie LB (technically) that is making cut down day at the LB position very interesting. The undersized LB from UC is 4^th on the team in tackles, and like DiManche and Williams, seems to always be around the ball.

Ryan Whalen – He only had 1 catch, but what a diving catch! I love Whalen’s reliability and special teams contributions, and therefore think he will be a tough cut.

Cobi Hamilton – A guy Whalen may be fighting with for the last WR position, Hamilton, had a nice catch and run after the catch.

Josh Johnson – The clubhouse leader for the backup QB position simply based off what he can give this team with his legs. I love his speed and have not seen the accuracy issues Marvin mentioned in Hard Knocks. He did have a potentially costly fumble on the final drive, but I still have him as the backup QB. Plus, how about the lead block he had for Boom’s TD run?

Boom Herron – I love what Boom gives this team on special teams and was my top guy for the practice squad. Unfortunately for the Bengals, with his performance on Saturday night (9 carries 91 yards), Boom may have earned himself a job on a 53 man roster. Good for him. Unfortunately, I still believe that spot will be with another team as I still have Burkhead in front of him.

Rex Burkhead – Another solid game (6 carries for 31 yards; 1 catch for 7 yards). I still think Rex makes it over Boom because like Boom, Rex can be a big special teams contributor and I believe Rex gives them more out of the backfield because of his catching ability.

58 Points in 2 Games – It is preseason, but points are points. The offense looks good and deep. I look forward to game 3 where the starters will play a bunch.

Dane Sanzenbacher – Another tough guy to cut at the WR position. He just produces. Only 1 catch for 12 yards, but it was a nice 3^rd down catch which resulted in a 1^st down. He also had another nice punt return (16 yards).

Devon Still – Nice to see the 2^nd round pick from 2012 getting some time out there. He played well on Saturday with 3 tackles (2 for losses) and 1 near sack (should have been called in the grasp).

Terrence Stephens – The man can play football as well as sing! Along with Still, he had the near sack. With the depth at D-Line, he won’t make the roster, but I like him as a practice squad player.

Onterio McCalebb – The man is fast. 1 kick return for 34 yards. However, unless he can contribute at CB (0 tackles in 2 games), I don’t see how he makes the team. Another good practice squad player.

Dontay Moch Sighting – I would love to see what Moch could do in the regular season. Because of injuries, we have never seen it, but the guy can fly and he can get to the QB. He got his 1^st sack of the 2013 preseason on Saturday and lead the team with 3.5 sacks in the 2012 preseason.

 

 

The Bad:

1^st String Defense started 0-2 on 3^rd downs before forcing a FG.

Protection of Dalton – Whit wasn’t in there, but Dalton was facing a lot of pressure. Not a good sign for a line that gave up the 3^rd most sacks in 2012 (46).

Giovanni Bernard Blocking – I love his play-making ability. I don’t like his ability to pick up blockers yet. Hopefully he can work on this because the Bengals need him out there on 3^rd downs.

Kyle Cook – Another penalty. He has likely played 2 full quarters and he now has 4 penalties for 30 yards (2 false starts, 1 hold, 1 illegal use of hands)!

Orson Charles Blocking – In theory, I like what Charles can provide as a FB. In reality, I see a guy that is uncomfortable and not very effective blocking from the FB position.

Aaron Maybin – I thought he had located (and worn) Harry Potter’s invisible cloak! Apparently the coaches must have thought the same as Maybin was cut yesterday.

Chris Lewis-Harris – He was burned bad on Preston’s 46 yard TD.

Josh Johnson Fumble – He could have iced the game by simply securing the football. He needs to be more aware of the game situation and just go down, kick the FG, and end the game.

The Cheerleader Outfits – Come on Bengals! These outfits are terrible! How about some jungle themed outfits? I can think of many things better than what this squad passes off as an outfit from year to year. The outfits look like a homemade 5^th grade Halloween costume. Weak.

 

 

The Noticed:

Boom Herron will likely not make it through waivers in order to make it to the practice squad.

Barring something huge (or injury), Josh Johnson is the backup – and may see a few scripted plays each week.

Aaron Maybin looked very unenthused to be playing football. Apparently the coaches agreed.

John Conner has to make this team…

…So does Orson Charles

Sean Porter Should be Put on IR – A torn labrum is a bad injury, especially for a LB. Given the young talent the Bengals have at LB, why keep an injured rookie? Put him on IR and open a spot for a healthy player.

LB, RB, WR, FB and S will be some interesting cuts.

Blacking Out Preseason Games is a Joke – Dear NFL, the reason preseason games do not sell out is because you charge regular-price for less than “regular” entertainment. Let’s see: Pay regular price for a regular season Monday Night Bengals-Steelers tilt? Or regular price for a Bengals-Titans fake football game? Not a tough decision. 

This Quinn Sharp cat needs to be cut simply based off his nasty ponytail. I don’t care if he can kick it a country mile, that sorry attempt at a ponytail has to go.

CoCo Better than Chapman? The Stats Say Yes.

If I were to ask you who has been a better closer during their Reds tenure, Chapman or CoCo, you would laugh. Chapman is a two-time all-star with a fastball which reaches 106 mph. CoCo was a disaster waiting to happen. Outrage would run rampant if the Reds traded or released Chapman. Parties were thrown when the Reds did not re-sign CoCo.  What if I were to tell you CoCo was actually the better closer? Blasphemy? Look for yourself:

	Chapman	Cordero           (with Reds)
Saves	69	150
Blown Saves	13	24
Save Percentage	84.1%	86.2%
ERA	2.54	2.95
Whip	1.03	1.295

 

Sure, since Chapman has a 106 mph fastball and CoCo does not, Chapman has a lower ERA and WHIP, but not by a lot. In fact, in CoCo’s last year with the Reds, he had a 2.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP (better than Chapman’s career average). The 106 mph fastball gets attention, but does it get the job done? So far, it looks like the answer is no. When it comes to my closer, I care about 1 thing: I gave you the lead in the 9^th inning, did you take us to the clubhouse with the ‘W’. Despite our hatred for him, CoCo actually converted saves 2% better than Chapman has for his career. That is shocking, but true, and it is exactly why I believe the Reds need to trade Chapman in the offseason if he insists on being a closer.