For each of the last 10 seasons, at least one NFL team has
gone from “Worst
to First” in their respective division. In 2012, RGIII added the Redskins
to this list. Will the streak continue in 2013? I think so. My AFC candidate is
the Kansas City Chiefs, and my NFC candidate is the Arizona Cardinals. You read
that correct (and you read it here first), Carson Palmer and the Cardinals. In
fact, the Cardinals are the team I believe will win the 2013 trophy for “Worst
to First.”
Kansas City Chiefs
2012 Record: 2-14; 4th in AFC West
2013 Key Losses: Matt Cassel, Romeo Crennel
Key Additions in 2013: Andy Reid, Alex Smith, Eric Fisher,
Anthony Fasano, Travis Kelce, Tony Moeaki (return from injury)
Reasons to Like the Chiefs
1) Overall Talent – not something you associate with many teams coming off a 2-14 season, but the Chiefs are different. Think about this, the Chiefs put 5 players in the Pro Bowl in 2012 (that’s 2.5 players per win) and then added two number 1 overall picks at the two most valuable offensive positions (QB-Alex Smith and LT-Eric Fischer-though he will start at RT).
2) Alex Smith – Rarely does a QB lose his job due to injury
(except Drew Bledsoe), especially a former number 1 overall pick, but that is
exactly what Smith had happen to him in 2012. Colin Kaepernick played well in
Smith’s absence, but Smith’s play did not lose him the starting role in SF.
Smith started 8 games before being knocked out of the lineup with a concussion.
When Smith went down, SF was 6-2 and Smith led the NFL in completion percentage
(70.2%), was 2nd in the NFL in Passer Rating (104.1), and had 13 TDs
to only 5 picks. With the exception of picks and rushing TDs, Smith outplayed
Kaepernick in every category. However, Kaepernick’s freakish athleticism is
something Smith could not match, and the Chiefs were the beneficiaries of Smith
being jettisoned by SF. In 2012, the Chiefs QBs accounted for 30 turnovers and
just 8 TDs. Smith’s acquisition drastically improves the Chiefs offense and
increases the value of Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe exponentially (and all of
KC’s weapons for that matter).
3) O-Line – With Brandon Allen at LT and #1 overall pick
Eric Fischer at RT, the Chiefs may have one of the best OL units in all of the
NFL. The 40 sacks the Chiefs gave up in 2012 are deceiving and more the result
of the poor QB play of Cassel and Quinn. The addition of an actual NFL QB (and
Fischer) should greatly reduce these numbers.
4) Jamaal Charles – Charles is one of the best RBs in the
NFL. In 2012, Charles was coming back from an ACL tear and was the only
offensive option teams focused on, yet he still rushed for 1,509 yards. Now he
has a coach in Andy Reid who builds his offense around small quick backs – take
a look at the stats put up by Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy over the years. Scary
to think what Charles can do in 2013 with a good QB and a system likely to be
built around him.
5) Receivers – Other than Bowe (and even he may be a
stretch), there is a lot of unproven talent at the WR and TE position. However,
there is talent. Jon Baldwin is a 6’4” 230lb 1st round pick in his 3rd
year waiting to break out; Donnie Avery gives them an explosive play option;
Dexter McCluster gives them a gadget guy and slot WR; and Moeaki (if his knees
hold up), is a pretty good TE. And I go back to the difference a guy like Alex
Smith will make - all of these WRs and TEs will look exponentially better
simply because of the presence of Smith.
6) The Defense – The numbers from 2012 may not look
impressive, but they never will when your offense turns the ball over 40 times!
You can’t have your defense on the field that much and expect good numbers.
However, with a greatly improved offense and 5 top 20 picks on defense
(Jackson, Poe, Hali, Johnson, Berry) including 2 top 5 picks (Berry and
Jackson), this is a unit that has top 10 potential. Derrick Johnson is a stud
MLB; Eric Berry is a Pro Bowl safety; Tamba Hali is an elite pass rusher;
Flowers and Smith are solid CBs; and the DL has 2 top 11 picks (Jackson and
Poe).
7) Andy Reid – His last few years in Philadelphia were
disappointing to say the least, but Andy Reid is still one of the best head coaches
in the NFL and he has not had this much talent since his 2004 Super Bowl runner
up Eagles team.
The Chiefs are the hot pick amongst many to be the big
risers in 2013, and I agree. Rarely do you see a team go 2-14 have so much
talent and the addition of Smith and Reid alone should add 4-5 wins to this
squad.
Reasons to be Cautious
The talent is there, however, as we
have seen in Philadelphia the past few years (Reid’s teams btw), talent alone
does not equate to winning. Players have to play well together and have to buy
into the coaches system. While Smith is miles better than Cassel and Quinn, he
still is starting from scratch with his receivers, his coach, and Reid’s
system. And, while Reid is a great coach, he is installing a whole new system.
How fast this team learns that system and gels as a unit, will determine if
their talent will blossom into a good 2013 or another year of lots of Pro
Bowlers and not many wins….Oh, and they still have Peyton Manning in their
division.
2013 Projection: 10-6; 2nd Place in the AFC West
– Wild Card - While I like this team, Peyton Manning is still in Denver and he
has Welker, Thomas, and Decker to throw to – all 3 of which have proven more
than any WR on KC’s roster.
Arizona Cardinals
2012 Record: 5-11; 4th in NFC West
2013 Key Losses: Kevin Kolb, Beanie Wells, Kerry Rhodes,
Adrian Wilson, Early Doucet, John Skelton, William Gay, Quentin Groves, Greg
Toler, Ken Whisenhunt
Key Additions in 2013: Carson Palmer, Rashard Mendenhall,
Karlos Dansby, John Abraham, Eric Winston, Levi Brown (back from injury), Matt
Shaughnessy, Honey Badger, Alex Okafor, Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor, Bruce
Arians,
Reasons to Like the Cardinals:
1) Overall Talent – Laugh all you want, but like the Chiefs,
the Cardinals have talent (especially on offense). The offense has 4 top 5
picks (Brown, Cooper, Palmer, Fitzgerald – 5 if you count Patrick Peterson
playing on offense) and 6 top 23 (Floyd and Mendenhall) and this season they
added one of the best RT’s in the game, Eric Winston.
2) Carson Palmer – I can hear my fellow Bengals fans already,
but, Palmer is still a good QB. Would I want him on my team? No. Do I trust him
to lead a team to a championship? No. Do I trust he won’t quit on his teammates
in AZ like he did in Oakland and Cincinnati? Again, no. However, the guy can,
and will, put up numbers. In 2012, throwing to a bunch of poor excuses for NFL
receivers, having no running game, and a lackluster OL, he still had 4,000+
yards, 22 TDs, 61.1% CMP, and a 85.3 Rating. Yes he had 14 picks (and his
staple of pick 6’s) and got a lot of garbage time numbers, but he is now teamed
up with an offensive minded coach and surrounded by the most talented group of
his career (yes, better than the 2005 Bengals weapons). Give Palmer Fitzgerald
(6’3” 218lbs), Floyd (6’2” 220lbs), Roberts (slot), Mendenhall, Ellington
(change of pace back) and Housler (6’5” 250lbs) and those numbers likely
translate to another 4,000+ yards and 25+ TDs. Palmer alone will provide 3
additional wins to a team that went 5-11 last year.
3) Larry Fitzgerald – He may be the best WR in the game
right now, he just hasn’t had a QB since Kurt Warner retired. No position is
sports is as dependent upon someone else than WR. With Palmer, a legit #2
threat (Floyd), and a running game (Mendenhall), Fitzgerald will be back to his
old dominant self.
4) Offensive Weapons – My personal thoughts of Mendenhall
aside, the guy is a solid RB and is an instant upgrade from Wells. Fitzgerald
is Fitzgerald. Floyd is a candidate for a breakout season and could be the best
#2 WR in the NFL. Andre Roberts had a solid 2012 (considering his QBs) with 64 catches
for 759 yds and 5 TDs. At 5’11” 195lbs, he will be a solid option in the slot.
Rob Housler (TE) has the ability to be a breakout player in 2013 and has
Fitzgerald comparing
him to the likes of Gates, Graham, and Vernon Davis. At 6’5”, 250 lbs, and apparently 4.4 speed,
Housler will get single covered and could be a great emergency option for
Palmer. Talk is that Peterson, one of the league’s most explosive players, will
also take snaps on offense in 2013 which would make this squad all the more
dynamic. The Cardinals simply have offensive weapons that the other NFC West
teams do not.
5) Improved OL – This was one of the worst O-lines for the
first 8 games in 2012 (31 sacks, 17 hits, and 102 QB hurries). However, in the
last 8, they were one of the best (15 sacks, 18 hits, and 31 hurries). In 2013,
they picked up one of the best RT’s in the NFL (Winston), get back a former 1st
round pick at LT (Brown), and add the best LG in the draft (Cooper). Combined
with a new zone blocking scheme, this could be a solid group in 2013, meaning
big holes for Mendenhall and plenty of time for Palmer.
6) Respectable Defense – Not a defense that can carry a team,
but this was a top 12 defense in 2012 (5th vs the pass; 28th
vs the rush; and 17th in PPG) despite having an offense ranked last
in the NFC in yards (4,209), 2nd last in Pts/g (15.6), and 2nd
last in turnovers (34). This was a defense that was on the field, and in the
hole, a lot in 2012. All things considered, they held their own and then some.
This defense, led by Patrick Peterson’s 7 picks, was actually 4th in
the NFL with an impressive 33 turnovers. With Docket, Washington, Peterson, and
the addition of Dansby, this team has some play makers on a defense which
should be better simply based on being on the field less and having an offense capable
of putting up some points in 2013. Despite rarely having a lead in 2012, the
Cardinals still managed to finish 11th in team sacks as well.
7) Impact Rookies – The Cardinals had a great draft. Cooper
in Round 1 will start opening day. Honey Badger was a steal and word out of
camp is that he has looked like the best player in camp. The Cardinals also
picked up two potential impact RB’s in Andre Ellington and Stepfan Taylor, and
added a possible starter in Alex Okafor.
Reasons to be Cautious:
1) Palmer - As much as Palmer can be an improvement, he is also prone
to untimely picks, most notably, pick 6’s. That can be a recipe for disaster in
a division that San Fran and Seattle call home.
2) NFC West – The NFC West may be the best division in the
NFL, so if the Cardinals are going to go worst to first (as I am predicting),
they will need to earn it.
3) O-Line – as much as this line looks improved on paper,
“on paper” means nothing if they cannot gel as a unit. If they cannot gel, that
could spell bad things for Palmer and the offense.
4) Potential – One of the most dangerous yet intoxicating
words in all of sports. Floyd, Housler, Palmer, Mendenhall, Honey Badger, etc.
all have potential to improve this team. However, every one of them must either
prove themselves for the first time, or reprove themselves in a new situation.
5) Home Field Advantage…or Lack Thereof – Phoenix is a large
transplant city and not exactly full of a lot of passionate fans. Therefore,
University of Phoenix Stadium can often be a home (or neutral site) game for
the Cardinals opponents.
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