Hopefully no one bet the house on the 12 oz insight from
last weekend….if so, I am sure the new owner of your house will love it! There
is a reason why Las Vegas has big hotels and fancy things – and it has nothing
to do with my brilliance or lack thereof, it is because Denver and Seattle
apparently employ defensive coordinators that are apparently against protecting
leads with less than 1 minute to play! If the DC’s in Denver or Seattle were
worth their weight in salt, I would have been 3-1. But they are not. So I was
not. And now your house belongs to someone else. Sorry about that. Hey, there
is always this week to redeem ourselves, eh?
First, a recap of what went wrong in last week’s 1-3 debacle:
Broncos vs Texans
·
John Fox does not have a Super Bowl ring…there
is a reason for that. On Saturday Fox displayed game tactics that would make
Marvin Lewis and Jim Tressel look like Chip Kelly.
1) At
the 2 minute warning, the Broncos had the ball, 3rd and 7, right
about midfield. Baltimore had 0 timeouts. A first down ends the game, and oh by
the way, your QB is Peyton Manning…and Fox elects to run the ball and then
punt? I agree the defense “should” be able to stop the Ravens from going 77
yards in 1:09, but why not try to end the game before getting to that point?
2) The
Ravens just went 77 yards in 38 seconds with no timeouts and Joe Flacco. You
have Peyton Manning and need to get about 40 yards in 31 seconds with 2
timeouts and you elect to take a knee? Way to coach to win! The ballsy Mike
Smith showed you that it could be done with someone far less decorated than
Peyton Manning.
·
As for Manning: Peyton Manning was not the reason
the Broncos lost that game, yet he will be/is being unfairly criticized for it.
However, he cannot make that throw at the end of OT. That INT feeds his
critics.
·
Why does the defensive coordinator have the
defense playing Cover 2 rather than Prevent? And why was the CB releasing Jones
to the safety? Was he worried about a pass over the middle or in the flats?
Outstanding football IQ boys!
·
I have never seen a ball played as badly as Rahim
Moore (Denver safety). I am guessing Mr. Moore never played much outfield in
his younger days.
49ers vs Packers
·
Serve me my crow cold please. I completely
underestimated Kaepernick and overestimated Aaron Rodgers. My apologies to Jim
Harbaugh and Colin Kaepernick.
·
The recap on this game is easy: Colin Kaepernick
> GB defense.
·
GB needs help on defense. The offense is good
enough to win another Super Bowl. The defense? Not so much. Think about this: a
little more than 1 year ago, GB was on a 19 game winning streak (end of 2010 –
including playoffs – and 13 straight in 2011), had a Super Bowl, and looked
unstoppable. Since then, they haven’t won a playoff game (0-2).
·
In their last 2 playoff games, GB has given up a
total of 82 points (37 and 45). Not surprising they are 0-2.
Falcons vs Seahawks
·
Was this an incredible comeback by the Falcons or
an epic choke by the Seahawks? I would say epic choke.
·
Unlike Baltimore, Atlanta only needed a FG to
win, so soft coverage should not have been an option (but what do I know).
·
With 31 seconds left, and 2 timeouts, the 4th
ranked defense played soft coverage and let the Falcons go 41 yards in 18
seconds. That is bad.
o
John Fox take note: Matt Ryan took his team 41
yards in 18 seconds with 2 timeouts. You have Peyton Manning.
Patriots vs Texans
·
Tom Brady > Matt Schaub
·
Bill Belichick > Gary Kubiak
·
Was there more that happened in this game? Sure,
but that is all you need to know.
Conference Championship Locks!
With that being said, my Conference Championship picks will help
you win back your money so you can buy a new house! These babies are pretty
much, almost, possibly, written on stone with pencil! (that is some backside
coverage that would make Adam Schefter proud!):
Ravens @ Patriots – (NE -9)
The Ravens have been a tough matchup for the Patriots over
the years. While NE holds a 5-2 edge in the last 7 matchups, the Ravens have given
the Patriots trouble in recent games. Baltimore whooped NE in NE during the
2010 playoffs 33-14, they beat NE in Baltimore earlier this year 31-30, and
they should have won last year in the playoffs (also in NE L 23-20). Baltimore
has also been riding high on emotion with the announcement that Ray Lewis will
retire after this season and played an inspired game last weekend, the type of
game which makes you wonder if they are a team of destiny. Despite all that, I
just look at Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and cannot pick Joe Flacco and John
Harbaugh over them. I do however believe a spread of 9 is too much. I expect
the Patriots to win comfortably, but by less than 9.
Pick: Patriots
49ers @ Falcons – (SF -4)
Atlanta, Mike Smith, and Matt Ryan finally got their playoff
win…albeit, thanks to an epic 4th quarter collapse only to come back
thanks to poor end of game defense from Seattle. Scoring with 31 seconds left
and taking a 1 point lead with the 4th ranked defense, Seattle had
won the game. Until they hadn’t. Atlanta’s 31 second drive to get a game winning
FG was improbable to say the least, and, like the Ravens win, was the type of
win that makes you wonder if they too are a team of destiny. I don’t believe either
are. In fact, I believe both are lucky as hell to be playing this weekend and I
don’t think either will win. Atlanta has a more balanced attack than GB and has
home field advantage, however, they have one glaring hole. The lack of a defense.
Last week the Falcons gave up 385 yards passing and 60 yards running to Russell
Wilson (485 total yards). Lucky for Atlanta, Kaepernick is a lot like Wilson…except
even more dynamic! Kaepernick went for 181 yards on the ground and 263 in the
air with 4 total TDs (2 running, 2 passing) against a GB defense that ranks
well above Atlanta in every category (Rushing, Passing, and Overall). The
Falcons can put points on the board, but the problem is they won’t be able to
do so as rapidly as the 49ers will because Atlanta, unlike SF, will be required
to face an actual defense. As much as it pains me as a Bengals fan, it looks
like the 49ers will be going back to the Super Bowl for the 3rd time
since stealing Super Bowl XXIII from the Bengals.
Pick: 49ers
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