Addressing the Elephant in the Room….aka the Reds Bullpen

Remember how good the Reds bullpen was last year (and was supposed to be this year)? In 2012 it was essentially a 6 inning game for opponents. If the starters got them to the 7^th with the lead, the game was pretty much over. You had Marshall in the 7^th, Broxton in the 8^th, and Chapman in the 9^th. Game over. Not this year. The Reds bullpen (something they counted on to be a strength again in 2013) has more losses than all but 3 bullpens…those 3 teams? LAD, Miami, and Houston…just the 3 worst teams in baseball who have a combined record of 63-115! Despite pitching fewer innings than all but 8 bullpens the Reds are:

• 13^th in ERA (3.55)

• Bottom 5 in HRs allowed

• Bottom 5 in losses

Last year, the Reds lost 7 games in which they led going into the 8^th inning. Through 60 games in 2013, the Reds have already lost 5 games in which they have led going into the eighth inning (including 2 this week when they led with 2 outs in the 8^th). Mat Latos is 5-0….he would be 9-0 if not for 4 blown saves by his bullpen – 9 wins would put him tied for the major league lead. I know we all like to bang on Dusty - myself included and many times rightfully so – but, if we are going to be fair, what options does he have? Who do you put in there? The only reliable guys are Chapman (and he has been shaky at times) and the Magic Moustache (aka Sam LeClure – and even LeClure blew a lead this week). Without Marshall, there is not a lefty in the pen that is worth a damn (Parra is a joke – see Wednesday night and his 8.38 ERA for examples). If Dusty wants to match lefty v lefty (and we know he does), he is left with Parra because he won’t bring Chapman in unless it is the 9^th inning or a save situation. From the right side he has the Magic Moustache (1.85) and Hoover (3.24). Keep in mind, the second best option there has 4 losses. After that, Dusty is left with Simon (3.19 – but terrible recently), Ondrusek (4.22), and Broxton (he of 22 hits in 24.1 IP, 3 blown saves, and a confidence building 4.44 ERA). Putting any of those three (or Parra) in right now is like playing Russian roulette with 4 bullets in the chamber! Bring up Arredondo you say? Not so fast my friend! First of all, he is currently suspended from Louisville for disciplinary reasons, and second (and more importantly), he is sucking – 5.40 ERA in AAA and 22 BBs in 23.1 IP.

 So what’s the solution? Unfortunately, there isn’t one. It is rare that I sympathize for Dusty, but here I do. You can’t put the Magic Moustache and Hoover in every time (though I would move Hoover to the 8^th inning guy). The only option is to hope Marshall comes back soon and is healthy and productive (big hope), and hope Simon, Broxton, and Arredondo return to their 2012 form. Other than that, just cross your fingers, hope, pray, and sit on the edge of your seat with your popcorn, because innings 7 and 8 could get quite interesting because as it stands now, no lead is safe with this bullpen.

 

....And the Continuing Votto Debate

Votto is continuing to prove me right (despite the ridicule I will receive): the Reds record parallels Votto’s power numbers and RBI numbers. When he is not driving the ball - hitting doubles and HRs - and not driving runners in, the Reds are an average team at best. After a white hot start to May, Votto is in the midst of a miserable streak. Take a look at the last 12 games: 

AVG	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
.174	0	2	5	7	14	.250	.304	.554

 

Not shocking, the Reds are 6-6 in this stretch - .500, just like they were 15-13 in April when Votto’s power numbers were down. While this does include 10 games with good teams (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Colorado), it also includes 2 with the Cubs. In the last 12 games, Votto has: 0 doubles; a 2-1 K/BB ratio; and as many strikeouts as BBs, RBI, and HRs combined! Even more surprising (or disturbing) are his Home/Away splits –  after 60 games, Votto is batting .391 on the road and just .259 at home (136 PAs at Home vs 137 PAs on the road). The most disturbing aspect of Votto’s slumps this year is the fact that when he is in a slump, he looks lost at the plate and is taking lackadaisical “excuse me” swings. Slumps are a part of baseball. I get that. But this year is the first time I have seen Votto have so many poor at bats. Prior to this year, I had rarely seen Votto give away at bats – that is not the case in 2013.