A Look at the Bengals 2014 Free Agents

 

With the NFL free agency period starting exactly one month from today (March 11^th), let’s take a look at the Bengals that have the potential to hit the open market and evaluate whether the Bengals should re-sign them and what the Bengals chances are to re-sign them. Below are the 15 Bengals players that either become Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) or Restricted Free Agents (RFA) on March 11^th.

 

	RFA / UFA	Player	Pos	Analysis	Should Bengals Re-sign?	Chances to re-sign
1	UFA	Michael Johnson	DE	I love Michael Johnson the player. I love Michael Johnson the person. I don't love the money Michael Johnson is going to command. While Johnson did not have the big numbers in 2013, he is still a top DE with plenty left in the tank and he will get big money offers. The Bengals could afford to keep either MJ or Dunlap. They chose Dunlap. I would love him back, but with Dunlap, Gilberry, Hunt, etc, I expect the Bengals to let Johnson walk.	No	10/90
2	UFA	Anthony Collins	OT	I have always liked Collins and thought the Bengals line really took a step forward last year when Collins went to LT and Whitworth moved to LG. I don't know if the Bengals are open to keeping Whit at LG full time, but they should be. While I wouldn't break the bank for Collins, if $5-6M would be enough to get him signed, I would bring him back and move Whit to LG permanently.	Yes	50/50
3	UFA	Taylor Mays	S	I have never been a big fan of Mays, but to his credit, he played well last year in his role as a nickel LB and it is because of that versatility that I think the Bengals should try to bring him back. With his low NFL production and season ending injury, bringing him back shouldn't be hard or expensive.	Yes	80/20
4	UFA	Chris Crocker	S	The last two years Chris Crocker has come off his couch to stablize the Bengals secondary and been very productive doing so. Much like they did in 2012 and 2013, I see the Bengals letting Crocker walk, knowing that he will be there should they need him later in the year.	No	10/90
5	UFA	Brandon Tate	WR	Tate had a decent year, but nothing that can't be replaced by a younger and less expensive option. Letting Tate walk could save me a few four letter outbursts per Sunday - a welcomed thought.	No	50/50
6	UFA	Brandon Ghee	CB	Ghee always draws rave reviews…and is always injured. As a result of his injuries, I don't expect him to get many looks outside of the Bengals and he will be available for cheap. He is worth bringing back to see if he can stay healthy and finally be the player we hear about, but his roster spot will be far from a lock.	Yes	80/20
7	UFA	Mike Pollak	OG	I thought Pollak did a very good job last year filling in for Zietler and at times, I thought he outperformed Zietler. I would be all for bringing Pollak back in 2014 as a strong and versatile lineman, but the Bengals have other young lineman (Hawkinson) that they like as well.	Yes	50/50
8	UFA	Alex Smith	TE	Smith played more than the average 3rd TE, but he produced at the level you would expect for a 3rd TE…very little. I see the Bengals letting him walk and keeping Gresham, Eifert and Charles.	No	10/90
9	UFA	Dennis Roland	OT	Letting him go brings up the big question of "who fills the tackle eligible role?" However, barring injury, I see Roland being free for lunch dates come September.	No	5/95
10	UFA	Zoltan Mesko	P	If Huber is healthy, the Bengals have their Punter. If not, they certainly could bring back Mesko who fills two roles - Punter and Speedo model!	No	1/99
11	UFA	Michael Boley	LB	There is never a 0% chance for a player returning, but Boley is as close to 0% as one could get. With Burfict, Maualuga, Harrison, a healthy Lamur, Porter and Mays ( and presuming they bring back Vincent Rey), Boley has no spot and serves no purpose…not much unlike he did in 2013.	No	1/99
12	UFA	Ogemdi Nwagbo	DT	Who? Exactly. He filled the roster spot when Still went on IR, but assuming Still is healthy and Peko isn't released, he doesn't have a spot on the 2014 team.	No	5/95
13	RFA	Andrew Hawkins	WR	With his quickness and agility, Hawkins provides an additional element to the offense and makes the offense tougher to defend. I think the Bengals want him back, and as a RFA, they will have the opportunity to match any offers. However, if someone offers him big money (doubtful), I don't see the Bengals matching it (nor should they).	Yes	70/30
14	RFA	Vincent Rey	LB	Rey was a pleasant surprise in 2013 and I would argue the 2nd best LB on the team. I think the Bengals realize his value and will bring him back on a 2-3 year deal for starter/high paid backup money. It isn't out of the realm of possibity that Rey starts in 2014.	Yes	90/10
15	RFA	Dane Sanzenbacher	WR	I think the Bengals would like to bring back Sanzenbacher and his limited playing time in 2013 likely makes his return more of a possibility. Sanzenbacher is a sure handed receiver that can return punts and be a great insurance policy against an injury.	Yes	60/40

 

Reviewing my NFL Preaseason Predictions

With the season in the books, lets take a quick look back at where I was right and where I went wrong with my preseason picks.

 

 

AFC East

Preseason Prediction                                                                        Actual Finish

1)      New England Patriots (12-4)                                                       1) New England Patriots (12-4)

2)      Miami Dolphins (9-7)                                                                     2) New York Jets (8-8)

3)      Buffalo Bills (5-11)                                                                          3) Miami Dolphins (8-8)

4)      New York Jets (3-13)                                                                      4) Buffalo Bills (6-10)

 

Where I was Right: Patriots, Dolphins and Bills. The Patriots were not a very good team in 2013 and in most divisions they would have had 10 wins at best, but the talking heads yapping about how the “gap in the east is closing” are simply not very bright. Think about it: Brady vs Tannehill, Smith and Manuel – it is nothing other than laughable. I didn’t know how the Patriots would pull 12 wins out of their hat, I just knew that Brady and Belichick likely would. It wasn’t pretty, but it worked. As far as the Dolphins, I didn’t buy into the hype around the Dolphins. One thing I have learned about the NFL is to take the team that “wins” the offseason free agency battle…and immediately count them out. Building a team around guys looking to bolt for the biggest paycheck never works. As for the Bills, they were right about where I thought they would be – granted, I thought they would do it with Kolb and Spiller not Manuel/Lewis and Jackson, but they ended about where I thought their talent should land them.

 

Where I was Wrong: Jets. I have to think I am with many others on this one. I am still not sure how the Jets pulled 8 wins out, but give Rex credit. The problem for the Jets is they actually did themselves a disservice getting to 8 wins. Geno Smith is not the answer at quarterback, nor do I think Rex is the answer at coach, but the 8-8 record will result in both keeping their jobs, thereby setting the franchise back a few more years.

 

AFC North

Preseason Prediction                                                                        Actual Finish

1)      Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)                                                             1) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)                       

2)      Baltimore Ravens (9-7)                                                                 2) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

3)      Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)                                                              3) Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

4)      Cleveland Browns (6-10)                                                              4) Cleveland Browns (4-12)

 

Where I was Right: I consider this a home run. The Bengals were the best team (talent wise) by far and got to the 11 wins I thought they would. The Steelers and Ravens fell one short of my prediction and the tie-breaker fell the opposite way I thought it would, but both teams were grossly overrated and had glaring issues on both sides of the ball. The Browns did what the Browns do and that is 1) have a dysfunctional (and possibly criminal) management team that 2) constructs a team devoid of NFL caliber talent and depth and 3) provides an unstable environment of revolving coaches and quarterbacks that are either not qualified for the job or aren’t given the power or time to prove they are qualified.

 

Where I was Wrong: I thought the Browns could get 2 more wins…apparently their management did as well.

 

AFC South

Preseason Prediction                                                                        Actual Finish

1)      Houston Texans (11-5)                                                                  1) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

2)      Indianapolis Colts (8-8)                                                                 2) Tennessee Titans (7-9)

3)      Tennessee Titans (8-8)                                                                  3) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

4)      Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)                                                          4) Houston Texans (2-14)

 

Where I was Right: Titans and Jaguars. The Titans were exactly what I expected - a decent football team that would win some games but not quite talented enough to make a legit playoff push. They had the look of an “around .500 team.” The Jaguars were bad, like I believe every human realized they would be. But, I must say that I was surprised how competitive they were the second half of the season.

 

Where I was Wrong: Texans and Colts. Ouch! I didn’t buy into the Texans as a Super Bowl contender talk that many were pushing in the pre-season, but I sure didn’t think they were 2-14 and 14 game losing streak bad either. If not for 2 miraculous comeback wins to start the season, we would be looking at not only an 0-16 team, but a team many had slated as their AFC Super Bowl representative going 0-16 – that would have been epic! As for the Colts, I really wasn’t that far off. I thought they played over their heads in 2012 (which I still do), but I underestimated how bad the Texans would be. I had the Colts losing twice to the Texans, instead, the Texans became the laughing stock of the league and provided Indy with 2 wins I didn’t think they would get.

 

AFC West

Preseason Prediction                                                                        Actual Finish

1)      Denver Broncos (14-2)                                                                   1) Denver Broncos (13-3)

2)      Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)                                                              2) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)

3)      San Diego Chargers (6-10)                                                            3) San Diego Chargers (9-7)

4)      Oakland Raiders (3-13)                                                                  4) Oakland Raiders (4-12)

 

Where I was Right: Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders. If you took my preseason predictions for the Broncos and Chiefs to Vegas (especially the Chiefs), you are welcome. If you were like most irrational and vulgar Raider fans that ripped me in my preseason predictions, here is my time to gloat. Many focused on Manning’s age (37) and neck surgeries (4) and felt that he would start to fall off. I didn’t buy it. Manning could have 37 neck surgeries and be 4 years old and I would take him over Alex Smith, Philip Rivers and Terrelle Pryor combined (62 TDs). I believe his 55 TD passes proved me right on that one. As for the Chiefs, count me as one of the many not surprised. Yes, they went from 2-15 to 11-5, but they had 5 Pro-Bowlers in 2012, had an easy schedule and replaced the 2 most important parts of the team (HC and QB) with quality talent. First, they replaced a high school level QB circus with a legit NFL QB that protects the ball. Then, they replaced one of the most inept HC’s in recent memory (Romeo Crennel) with one of the best NFL HC’s of the last two decades (Reid). Lastly, they added a #1 overall pick, a weak NFL schedule and “VOILA” a decent football season is born. The Raiders were an easy pick. Possibly the only thing more amusing than the dysfunction of this NFL franchise over the last 20 years is the ignorance and blind loyalty of their fan base. I was blasted by Raiders fans in my preseason predictions for my statement that the Raiders had just one play-maker (McFadden) – who is made of glass – and that I didn’t even know who Dennis Allen is. Well, they proved me right on the play-maker part and now I know who Dennis Allen is…he is a coach that managed to keep his job despite common sense saying otherwise. When a team enters the year with an injury prone running back, no legit #1 receiver and an undrafted QB that is better known for free tattoos than his quarter back play (Pryor), that all adds up to the makings of a disastrous season on your hands. Quite frankly, I am surprised they got to 4 wins. I thought I was being generous with 3.

 

Where I was Wrong: The Chargers surprised me, most notably the resurgence of Phillip Rivers and the breakout season of Ryan Mathews. The Chargers still have issues on defense, but if the 2013 Rivers continues to show up, the Chargers will continue to be relevant.

 

NFC East

Preseason Prediction                                                                        Actual Finish

1)      New York Giants (10-6)                                                                 1) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

2)      Dallas Cowboys (10-6)                                                                   2) Dallas Cowboys (8-8)

3)      Washington Redskins (7-9)                                                         3) New York Giants (7-9)

4)      Philadelphia Eagles (3-13)                                                           4) Washington Redskins (3-13)

 

Where I was Right: Basically nowhere. I had the correct record for the division winner and loser and I believed the Redskins were overrated…that is about it.

 

Where I was Wrong: The Giants, most notably Eli Manning tripped over and over again out of the starting gate making a mockery of my division winner prediction – however, after their 0-6 start, the Giants were 7-3 (same as the Eagles) and arguably the best team in the division. The Cowboys were overrated yet again and for probably the first time ever, I bought into it (a little). The Redskins were way more overrated than I thought. And the Eagles (and Chip Kelly) proved me wrong – granted, I was projecting with the thought that Vick would be their starter, but my prediction would have been similar with Foles as well. The Eagles were a surprise and I am more than willing to eat my crow on that one.

 

NFC North

Preseason Prediction                                                                        Actual Finish

1)      Green Bay Packers (12-4)                                                             1) Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

2)      Chicago Bears (10-6)                                                                       2) Chicago Bears (8-8)

3)      Detroit Lions (7-9)                                                                           3) Detroit Lions (7-9)

4)      Minnesota Vikings (6-10)                                                             4) Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)

 

Where I was Right: The order of the entire division and the Packers winning the division. If not for Rodgers injury, I think this team would have been 11-5, pretty close to where I predicted. The Lions were exactly who I (and Dennis Green) thought they were – a very talented team that is exciting to watch, but lacked the discipline and grit it takes to win in the NFL. At 5-10-1, I consider my Vikings pick to be spot on as well.

 

Where I was Wrong: I thought the Bears would be a little better than they were. Sure, Cutler missed a good portion of the season, but McCown did more than hold his own. The defense really let this team down in 2013. Yes, they had a lot of injuries, but who didn’t? There is no amount of injuries that excuses 161.4 YPG on the ground (25.6 YPG worse than the 31^st ranked team). That is just poor effort.

 

NFC South

Preseason Prediction                                                                        Actual Finish

1)      New Orleans Saints (12-4)                                                           1) Carolina Panthers (12-4)

2)      Atlanta Falcons (12-4)                                                                    2) New Orleans (11-5)

3)      Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)                                                       3) Atlanta Falcons (4-12)                              

4)      Carolina Panthers (5-11)                                                               4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)

 

Where I was Right: The Saints having a comeback year.

 

Where I was Wrong: Everywhere else. The Panthers and Cam Newton made me eat a lot more crow with their division title in 2013. I still have plenty of questions about Newton, but I am much more open to the idea that he has the potential to develop into a dangerous quarterback. The Falcons …Ouch! I don’t think I was alone in the “did not see that one coming” camp. Cry injuries all you want, but again, all teams had injuries and with the exception of the Texans, no team buckled like the Falcons. From 13-3 and a blink away from the Super Bowl in 2012 to 4-12 and the 31^st ranked defense in 2013, that is bad. Mike Smith can thank the injuries for keeping his job. The Buccaneers – holy train wreck Batman. I had big expectations for Josh Freeman and that offense and even picked Freeman as one of my sleeper Fantasy QBs…to say I was wrong was an understatement! Freeman, Shiano and the entire team were and absolute disaster in 2013, however, I like the hire of Lovie Smith and think this team could be a candidate for the annual “Worst to First” team.

 

NFC West

Preseason Prediction                                                                        Actual Finish

1)      Arizona Cardinals (11-5)                                                               1) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

2)      Seattle Seahawks (9-7)                                                                 2) San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

3)      San Francisco 49ers (9-7)                                                              3) Arizona Cardinals (10-6)

4)      Saint Louis Rams (5-11)                                                                 4) Saint Louis Rams (7-9)

 

Where I was Right: I was very hot and cold on my predictions in this division. I was nearly laughed off the interweb in August when I predicted the Cardinals at 11 wins and the division winners. Come season end, I was one poorly officiated game (Philly) away from nailing the Cardinals at 11 wins, something very few could claim they saw coming. Unfortunately for the Cardinals (and my predictions), the 10 wins wasn’t even good enough to get in the playoffs. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick did both take a step back like I predicted, however, the team surrounding each was better than I predicted.

 

Where I was Wrong: Not shocking that I probably eat the most crow in the only division with two bird mascots. In hindsight, my 9-7 prediction for the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks looks pretty silly. I didn’t see the Seahawks defense being quite as good as it was and I thought Wilson would regress a little more than he did in year 2. While I was correct in the regression of Kaepernick, the team was 3 games better than what I gave them credit for and were inches away from a repeat Super Bowl appearances. Though a 7-9 season seems a lot better than a 5-11 season, I have a hard time saying I missed on the Rams. I felt they would be an under talented football team that was competitive, but not good enough to do anything of note and that is exactly what they were. Good enough to beat a team that took them lightly (Indy and New Orleans), but not good enough to beat any real contenders (Seattle, SF, etc).

 

Overall, I would give myself a solid “B” on these predictions. Not too shabby.