Super Bowl XLVIII

 

Broncos vs Seahawks

Pick: Broncos

At 6:25pm on Sunday, the age old question is up for debate – what wins championships? Offense or defense?

Statistically speaking, the Broncos have the most potent offense in NFL history and the Seahawks possess one of the toughest defenses of the past few decades. Can the Seahawks vaunted secondary contain one of the all-time great quarter backs and his potent repertoire of receivers? Can Denver’s suspect defense stop Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson? Can Peyton win in the cold? Can Seattle win without their 12^th man? All questions that will be answered in 36 hours.

 

Why I Might be Right: Peyton Manning and his weapons. This is not just a good offense, this is a historical offense. No team in the history of the NFL has scored more points in a season than the 2013 Denver Broncos (606), thrown more touchdowns (55), had more passing yards (5,477) or had more 50+ point games (3). The Broncos also rank second all-time in YPG (457.3 vs 467.1), PPG (37.9 vs 38.8) and first downs (435 vs 444). In 2013, the Broncos lead the NFL in PPG (37.9), YPG (457.3), plays of 10+ yards (275), passing YPG (340.3), fewest times sacked (20), 1^st downs per game (27.2) and red-zone TD% (76.1%). (http://www.nfl.com/superbowl/story/0ap2000000317693/article/peyton-mannings-broncos-offense-has-historical-competition) Seattle may possess the best pass defense in the league, but the Seahawks are not historical good like the Broncos offense is. The Seahawks do not rank in the top 10 all-time defenses for least PPG. In fact, the Seahawks don’t even rank in the top 5 since 2004 (http://www.nfl.com/superbowl/story/0ap2000000318687/article/seattle-seahawks-defensive-legacy-depends-on-nflwide-impact) and let’s not forget, this is a defense that in Seattle, surrendered 17 points to Jacksonville and 24 to Tampa Bay, and on the road, gave up 20 to Houston and 34 to Indianapolis. None of those teams can hold a candle to the Broncos offense.

Why I Might be Wrong: They may not be a top 5 all-time defense, but Seattle still has a damn good defense. The Seahawks only surrendered 172.0 YPG in the air, 273.6 YPG overall and 14.4 PPG. In 2013, the Seahawks lead the NFL in PPG (14.4), YPG (273.6), passer rating allowed (63.4), yards allowed per play (4.42), fewest plays of 20+ yards (36), passing YPG (172.0) and takeaways (39). (http://www.nfl.com/superbowl/story/0ap2000000318687/article/seattle-seahawks-defensive-legacy-depends-on-nflwide-impact)

 

Key to the Game: All of the talk is going to understandably surround Manning and the Seahawks secondary, but the key to this game is going to be the running games. If the Seahawks can make the Broncos one-dimensional by stopping (or at least slowing) the Broncos running game, containing Manning becomes much more obtainable. However, if the Seahawks let the Broncos run game get on track and start to make the Seahawks guess, they are going to be in trouble. For the Seahawks offense, the key will be getting Lynch going and keeping him going. The easiest way to stop Manning is to keep him off the field as much as possible. That can be done by establishing the run and sustaining long drives. I don’t see that happening and I see Manning winning his 2^nd Super Bowl.