Bengals v Ravens II - Post Season Prepper

This game means very little for the Ravens. Sitting in the 4 seed with the AFC North wrapped up, the only way this game effects the Ravens is if they win and NE loses (which would move Baltimore to the 3 seed). This game means even less for the Bengals. The Bengals are the 6 seed whether they win or lose. The only significance in this game from the Bengals perspective is to get some momentum heading into the playoffs. The biggest concern in this game is to come out healthy.

When the Ravens Run the Ball

Ray Rice is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Somehow the Ravens seem to be unaware of that fact. How else could you explain Rice having just 14 more touches than BJGE (315 to 301)? Everything with the Ravens offense should run through Ray Rice. That is not the case with BJGE and the Bengals. Heck, BJGE has split carries in games and is a very minor factor in the passing game. Rice is the only ‘Elite’ player on the Ravens offense (despite whatever Joe Flacco says). Compared to 2011, Rice is on pace for 4 less TDs, 20 less carries, 250 less rushing yards, 11 less receptions, and 194 less receiving yards. Ray Rice should have 25 touches per game. No Ravens game should conclude with Rice getting less than 20 carries and 4 receptions. However, Rice has received less than 4 receptions in 7 games this year and just 20 carries or less in 12 of the Ravens 15 games! Rice has 100+ yards rushing in just 4 games this year (same as BJGE) Not surprising that Cam Cameron got the axe. Rice did average 6.8 ypc in the week 1 meeting against the Bengals, but only had 93 all purpose yards on 13 touches. This is not the same Bengals defense the Ravens saw in week 1 and this is not the same Ravens offense the Bengals defense saw in week 1 either. In week 1 the Bengals gave up 430 yards to the Ravens offense. In the last 6 games, the Bengals have been holding opposing defenses to 264.3, best in the NFL. The Ravens offense has scored 20 or less in 4 of their last 6 games. For whatever reason, the Ravens believe they are a passing team, therefore, Rice may have some success in the short passing game this Sunday, but I expect the Bengals to hold him in check in the running game.

Advantage: Bengals

When the Ravens Throw the Ball

The Ravens have run 959 plays this season, 59% of which (561) have been passes. Like I said before, despite having Ray Rice on their team, the Ravens believe they are a passing team and therefore, that Joe Flacco is the best player on their team. So, let’s look at Flacco. If you believe in the QBR (where 50.0 is average), Flacco is a below average QB (QBR = 47.8) ranked 24^th amongst starting QBs. The reason? He is incredibly inconsistent. When Flacco throws for 299+ yards, the Ravens are 6-0. When Flacco throws for less than 299, the Ravens are just 4-5. The breakdown of his inconsistencies is staggering:

	299+ yards	Less than 299 yards	Overall
Record	6-0	4-5	10-5
TDs	12	10	22
INTs	3	7	10
TD:INT	4:1	1.4:1	2.2:1
Yards	2,042	1,741	3,783
Comp. %	65.4%	55.4%	59.8%
QBR	79.7	35.7	47.8

The second important stat against Flacco is to make him uncomfortable. Like most QBs, when you put pressure on Flacco, he throws picks and loses games. But much like the yards breakdown, there is a huge difference when you sack Flacco 2 or more times:

	Less than 2 sacks	More than 2 sacks	Overall
Record	5-0	5-5	10-5
TDs	10	12	22
INTs	2	8	10
TD:INT	5:1	1.5:1	2.2:1
Yards	1,419	2,364	3,783
Comp. %	67.1%	56.7%	59.8%
QBR	84.8	37.5	47.8

Moral of the story? Keep Flacco under 299 or sack him more than twice and you have a great chance of winning. Do them both, and you have a great chance at winning (2-5). The question is can the Bengals keep him under 299 and sack him more than twice? In week 1, they couldn’t (3 sacks, but 299 yards), but like we said before, this is a different defense than what Baltimore saw in week 1. In week 1 Dunlap was out, Maualuga was fat, Burfict was on the sidelines, and Crocker and Gilberry were unemployed. This week, Dunlap and Crocker are back, Gilberry is in the rotation, Burfict is starting, and Mauluga is playing much better. The Ravens WRs can make plays against the Bengals secondary…if they get enough time. I don’t believe they will. I believe the Bengals DL is better than the Ravens OL and therefore I believe the Bengals will hold Flacco under 299 and sack him more than twice. That would mean bad things for the Ravens.

Advantage: Bengals

When the Bengals Run the Ball

Remember the Baltimore defenses that no one could run on? That is not this defense. This Baltimore defense is ranked 24^th against the run, giving up 127.9 per game (only 1 playoff team has a run defense ranked lower – Indy). This Baltimore run defense is the weakness of the team and may be just what the Bengals need to get their run game back on track before the playoffs. In week 1 BJGE had 91 yards on just 18 carries (5.1 ypc). He and Peerman combined for 113 yards on 21 carries (5.4 ypc). Look for BJGE to rebound against Baltimore after a terrible day against the Steelers.

Advantage: Bengals

When the Bengals Throw the Ball

If the run defense is weakness 1a of this team, the pass defense is weakness 1b. The Ravens Pass defense is average at best, ranked 17^th in the NFL and surrendering 233.9 ypg. However, Andy Dalton has never beaten the Ravens (0-3), did not have a good week 1 against the Ravens (221 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT – pick 6), and has been struggling of late. While I do not believe the Ravens have the personnel in the secondary to cover Green, I do not believe Dalton nor his secondary options are playing well enough to take advantage of it.

Advantage: Ravens

 

Coaching

John Harbaugh, much like Marvin Lewis, makes a bunch of head scratching moves (ignoring Rice at times, firing Cam Cameron when he did, etc). However, he is 4-0 in his last 4 attempts against Marvin Lewis and has a history of winning in the playoffs (AFC Championship game just last year). Therefore, I give Harbaugh the nod over Lewis.

 

Advantage: Ravens

Conclusion

I firmly believe the Bengals are the better all around team. I believe the Bengals are playing better at this point in the season than the Ravens. And I believe the Bengals will win this game. However, they could benefit from a loss. It is possible for the Bengals to play the Ravens in round 1 if the Ravens win and the Patriots lose to the Dophins (a team NE has struggled with over the years). Should that happen, combined with a Houston win, the Bengals path to the AFC Championship game would be include Flacco and Schaub and 2 struggling teams. Any other scenario has the Bengals facing at least Brady, and possibly Brady and Manning. I would prefer to stay away from Brady and Manning as long as possible.   

Prediction:

Bengals 27, Ravens 17

Bengals Wrap Up Steelers for the Holidays!

My calendar tells me Tuesday, December 25^th was Christmas Day 2012. For Bengals fans, Sunday, December 23^rd felt like Christmas Day. Steelers fans laugh at the thought of this. For most organizations (the Steelers especially), making the playoffs is not the goal, winning the Super Bowl is. For an organization run by Mike Brown, making the playoffs, let alone in back to back years, is a Christmas miracle of the magnitude we have not seen since the Virgin Mary gave birth to Jesus himself. So, while this was not a pretty game, and there were plenty of things that cause great concern, the most important part of the story is the Bengals won…oh, and the Steelers lost.

What I Did Like:

Winning/Making the Playoffs

We have said it time and time again. This was the type of game the Bengals don’t win. More specifically, the Marvin Lewis Bengals don’t win. When everything is on the line, when the offense is not working, when things are going wrong and the game is just plain ugly. The Bengals don’t win that game. Marvin Lewis can’t win that game. That is the game Mike Tomlin wins. That is the game the Steelers win. Except this time Marvin and the Bengals won and Tomlin and the Steelers lost. This time the Steelers were the ones that folded. This time it was Roethlisberger who made the mistake. For the first time I can remember, in a Bengals Steelers game, it was the Steelers that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. So, while the Bengals looked terrible in many facets of the game, let us not forget, the most important part of this game, or any game for that matter, is to win. As Bengals fans, we have long admired teams like the Steelers (while loathing them at the same time) who can win ugly and win games they have no business winning. So, despite the ugliness in this game (and there was plenty), the bad coaching decisions, etc, lest we not forget, the Bengals won. And as Herm Edwards so eloquently told us, “you play to win the game! Hello!”

Knocking the Steelers Out of the Playoffs

As a Bengals fan born in the early 80’s, I have very few memories of playoff games. Two memories I do have involve the Steelers ending the Bengals playoff hopes: 1) 2005 Wild Card game (aka the Carson Palmer broken knee game) where the Steelers knocked the Bengals (and Palmer) out and went on to win the Super Bowl; 2) 2006 the last game of the year - the last time the Bengals had a chance for back to back playoff years – if the Bengals won, they were in – the Bengals let the Steelers tie it late, Graham missed a GW FG and then the Bengals lost on the first possession in OT. I don’t ever recall the Bengals ending the Steelers season…until Sunday. That revenge may not mean much to the Bengals players (I believe Geathers may be the only player remaining from the 2005 or 2006 game), but that revenge means a lot to the fans. And we are a website for the people!

The Defense

If you didn’t buy into the hype about this defense, maybe you believe now. This is a good defense. This is a very good defense. This is a championship caliber defense. The Bengals beat Pittsburgh, in Pittsburgh, for one reason and one reason only. And that reason is defense. The defense had 4 sacks, 7 QB hits, 2 INTs, and 1 forced fumble. The Bengals scored a total of just 13 points. The defense had the only TD and the 2 FGs were a result of a 19 yard drive and a 1 play 21 yard drive (set up by the game ending INT). The defense also pushed Pittsburgh out of FG range to start the 2^nd half after Dalton threw a terrible INT on the first play of the 3^rd quarter. That means the defense was responsible for 10 of the Bengals 13 points and took 3 points away from Pittsburgh. On Sunday the defense proved that they alone can win a game. That means they stand a chance in any game against any team.

Leon Hall

One of my favorite whipping boys has now (in my eyes) won the last two games. It was Hall’s INT against Philly that turned that game, and it was Hall’s INT against Pittsburgh that provided the Bengals with a 7-0 lead and their only TD. Hall looks healthy and his health makes this defense much tougher.

The Defensive Line

This line is dominant. More importantly, they are dominant against both the pass and the rush. Led by Geno Atkins and his 12.5 sacks, the defense has 47.0 sacks (38.0 from the DL), 2^nd in the NFL. What makes them so difficult is that multiple players can pressure the QB, so teams can’t focus on just one player. 4 players on the line have 5 or more sacks (Atkins 12.5, MJ 9.5, Gilberry 5.5, Dunlap 5.0). When the line is putting the pressure on the QB like they have all season, the Bengals can stay in any game.

Dalton to Green with 0:04

There wasn’t much good about the offense on Sunday, but they did execute perfectly at the end of the game to win it. With :14 seconds left, Dalton lofted a perfect 21 yard pass over the LB and under the S to Green in a spot where only Green could catch it. That completion set up the GW FG with just :04 seconds left, and ultimately sealed the playoffs for the Bengals. 

Josh Brown

How good has this guy been? 8 of 9 since being brought in, and his only miss was a 56 yarder at Heinz Field, a place where the longest kick made is 52 yards and kickers are 5-20 from 50+.

Adam Jones the Punt Returner

His 62 yard punt return got wiped out, but he makes a play every game he is back there. I still do not understand why Brandon Tate ever fields a punt when Jones is healthy, let alone splits punt return duty.

If not for Jason Allen, we may have been talking about how Jones won the game with his 62 yard punt return, not the fact that he nearly lost it when he allowed Antonio Brown to beat him for a 60 yard bomb with just over 1 minute remaining in the half.

What I Did Not Like:

The Run Game

So much for the Bengals recent improvements in the run game. After going for 543 yards in the last 5 games, BJGE went for an embarrassing 14 yards on 15 attempts, with no run longer than 4 yards. While he didn’t have much room to work with, he seemed timid when approaching the line. On multiple occasions it was as if he would get to the line and just dive down. Sunday was more like the BJGE we saw weeks 1-9, not the guy we saw the last 5 weeks who was attacking the hole with purpose. If the Bengals want to make noise in January, they need the BJGE of weeks 10-15, not the BJGE we saw Sunday.

Offensive Line (Specifically Kyle Cook)

In the running game, Boling, Cook, and Zeitler were abused by the Steelers front 7. Thanks to our friends at Pro Football Focus we can see (statistically) just how bad they actually were. Unfortunately for the Bengals OL, the run game was not their only problem. The line had another poor day in pass protection giving up 6 more sacks. Full disclosure, I have never coached in the NFL (Surprised? I know!). However, from my couch, I managed to put together a collection of stats that Paul Alexander and Marvin Lewis may want to take a look at. In the 12 games without Kyle Cook, the Bengals OL seemed to be in sync and was giving up 2.25 sacks per game (27 sacks). In the 3 games since Kyle Cook has returned (and played 50%-100% of the snaps), the OL has averaged giving up 5.67 sacks per game (17 sacks). The only difference is Kyle Cook. Coincidence? I don’t think so. Again, I have little credentials when it comes to coaching, in the NFL but I believe 5.67 sacks per game is much worse than 2.25 per game. Just saying. Usually OL stats like that equal a loss.

Marvin Lewis’s Decision Making

I have never been a fan of Marvin’s decision making. Usually, it is because he coaches so conservatively – not to lose. I will give him credit, he has coached much more aggressively this year. But, there is a big difference between ‘smart aggressive’ and ‘stupid aggressive.’ Going for a 56 yard FG at Heinz Field with 3:18 left, in a tied game which will determine the playoffs, when your defense is playing lights outs, was stupid aggressive. Very stupid aggressive and damn near cost the Bengals the playoffs. Lucky for Marvin, the defense was able to hold Pittsburgh to 18 yards and force an unsuccessful 53 yard FG attempt. Longest FG in Heinz Field history? 52 yards. Kickers were 5-20 at Heinz Field kicking from 50+ yards.

Offensive Play Calling

I had a problem with a bunch of the play calling on Sunday, but one in particular left me screaming. Tied 10-10 with just over a minute remaining, the Bengals had 3^rd and 1 at the Pittsburgh 48. They were approximately 20 yards from FG range, had 1 TO remaining and 1 minute from killing the clock. Picking up a 1^st down was all they needed….so they throw a deep ball to Green?  Of course it wasn’t close, it stopped the clock, and allowed the Steelers to get the ball back with :44 seconds remaining and 2 TOs. Again, ‘stupid aggressive.’

Green Fumble

Dear AJ Green,

Stop holding the ball away from your body.

Signed,

Bengals fans

Andy Dalton

Dalton has thrown some crucial picks this year. Just when the Bengals seem to be getting control of a game is exactly when Dalton likes to get careless with the football. Not a trait you want to have in your QB. With 1:53 remaining in the 1^st half, the Bengals had a 10-0 lead, the Steelers pinned at their own 27 yard line, and the ball coming out of half. Things looked in control. Less than 2 game minutes later, the Steelers were looking like they were going to tie it up. First, Adam Jones gets beat for a 60 yard TD pass before the half. Then, on the first play out of the half, Dalton forces a ball over the middle to Hawkins that gets picked off and returned to the Cincinnati 32. Lucky for Dalton, he defense held and pushed the Steelers out of FG range. For Dalton to take the next step, and for this Bengals team to take the next step, he has to do a better job of taking care of the football.

Jason Allen

Adam Jones had a 62 yard punt return which he took down to the Pittsburgh 13 nullified by Jason Allen’s penalty. Rather than 1^st and 10 at the Pittsburgh 13 in a 0-0 game, the Bengals had 1^st and 10 from their own 15, compliments of Mr. Allen’s holding call. By my calculation, that is a 72 yard penalty. Mr. Allen, please come to my office and bring your playbook.

Getting Beat Deep Right Before Half

Up 10-0 with 1:53 remaining in the 1^st half, the Bengals had a 10-0 lead, the Steelers pinned at their own 27 yard line, and the ball coming out of half. Until Adam Jones decided to bite on double move without safety help. Note to Jones, when you have a 2 score lead, 2 minutes before half, with the opponent pinned deep and the ball coming out of half, keep everything in front of you.

Seeing Brandon Tate Catch Punts

Again, my NFL coaching credentials are limited, but let me lay this out for those of you who are NFL coaches, so we can see your thoughts. You have 2 punt returners, PR A whom we will call Adam, and PR B, whom we will call Brandon. Both PRs are fast and have experience, but here is where they differ:

PR A is highly regarded as one of the best PRs in the game, has a history (including recent history) of breaking big returns, rarely fumbles and rarely makes poor decisions on when to catch the punt and when to let it go.

PR B averages about half the yards of PR A, has no history of big returns, but does have a history (including recent history) for fumbling and making poor decisions on when to catch the punt and when not to.

Without knowing names, I reckon I would go with PR A and I would not desire having these 2 split time. Call me crazy, but that may just be my non-NFL coaching background talking.

Bengals v Steelers - Take II

In the second half of the season, the Cincinnati Bengals have been the best team in the AFC North. Despite being 5-1 (compared to the 2-4 Steelers and the 3-3 Ravens) and in 2^nd place in the AFC North the Bengals are still an afterthought in the national media and seen as the “Other Team” in the AFC North. For once, I agree with the national media. In order to be talked about with the “Big Boys,” you have to beat the “Big Boys.” Andy Dalton and these Bengals have yet to prove they can do that. Dalton is 17-7 against all teams not named the Steelers and Ravens and 0-6 against teams named the Steelers and Ravens. Until Dalton and this Bengals team beat the Steelers and Ravens, they will continue to be seen as the third team in the AFC North, regardless of their record. They get their chance these next two weeks, rarely have the Steelers and Ravens looked so vulnerable.

When the Steelers Run the Ball

It sounds like Rashard Mendenhall may be active this week. I’m not sure the Steelers fans should be happy about that or not. While none of the Steelers RBs have been very effective this year (the Steelers are 26^th in the NFL in rushing), Mendenhall is the only Steelers RB who does not have a 100 yard game. In fact, the Steelers have only had 3 games this year with a 100 yard rusher, and haven’t had one since Redman went for 147 in week 9. However, 1 of their 3 100 yard games did come against these Bengals when Dwyer went for 122 in week 7. But, this is not the same Bengals defense. The last time these teams met, Crocker was just back and not starting, Burfict was new to the lineup, Rey Maualuga was still fat, and the defense as a whole was not playing well. Crocker is not starting at SS, Burfict is playing much better and faster, Maualuga is less fat, and the Bengals are now 9^th against the run. In fact, the last 100 yard rusher the Bengals allowed was Dwyer. I believe the Steelers will have some success running delayed draws and reverses, but when they line up and run traditionally, I give the Bengals the edge.

Advantage: Bengals

When the Steelers Throw the Ball

Most teams run to set up the pass. The Steelers used to run to set up the run. These Steelers would much rather throw and they are very good at it. The Steelers are 10^th in passing, despite missing Roethlisberger for 3 games and Antonio Brown for multiple games. In fact, last week, when Roethlisberger complained about the play calling, he threw for 339 yards. The Steelers have a deep and versatile receiving corps. They can stretch the field with Mike Wallace, one of the (if not the) fastest WRs in the game. They can come underneath with Brown, an excellent slot receiver. Or, they can beat you down the middle with Heath Miller, likely the most complete and underrated TE in the league. The Bengals, despite having the 12^th ranked passing defense, cannot cover the Steelers receivers. That ranking is a result of the league leading 43 sacks. When they get pressure on the QB, the secondary can hold their own. When they don’t, the secondary gets exposed. The Steelers are depleted on the O-line, so the Bengals should be able to get pressure on Roethlisberger, but the key will be whether or not they can actually get him down. Roethlisberger is the best and most dangerous QB in the league when it comes to extending plays. If he can escape the pressure and extend plays, he will expose what has been a disappointing Bengals secondary. While I like the Bengals D-line over the Steelers O-line, the Steelers receivers are far better than the Bengals secondary.

Advantage: Steelers

When the Bengals Run the Ball

When these teams met in week 7, the Bengals run offense was struggling and BJGE was looking like a real disappointing signing. Something changed in the run game the last 5 weeks. After going the first 9 games with no 100+ yard games, BJGE has gone over 100 4 of the last five. The Bengals running attack is now ranked 11^th, but playing like a top 10 or maybe even top 5 running attack. They will need it against the Steelers. The Steelers have the 4^th ranked run defense and haven’t given up a 100 yard rusher since week 10 against the Chiefs. However, in 2 of their last 3 games, they have given up 5.8+ ypc to RBs (Murray 5.8, Rice 6.5). The Bengals will need to run the ball and stick to running the ball, if for no other reason than to keep the Steelers from focusing on Green. If the Bengals can have success running the ball, they will force the Steelers to pull coverage from Green, or allow the run game to beat them. A few weeks ago, I would have given the Steelers run defense the edge, hands down. However, the recent edge would go to the Bengals. I believe whoever wins this matchup will win the game.

Advantage: Push

When the Bengals Throw the Ball

The Steelers have the #1 ranked passing defense, which is astounding given the injuries they have had on defense. This week will be no different. Ike Taylor, who over the years has shut down the Bengals top WRs (Chad Johnson, AJ Green) on multiple occasions, will be out again. Of course that won’t stop Dick LeBeau from trying to scheme a way to neutralize Green. Without Taylor, that will likely be harder to do, but LeBeau is one of the best defensive minds of all time (if not the best), so I don’t put it past LeBeau. The question will be, can the running game or another WR or TE step up and hurt the Steelers? When the Bengals have had success over the Steelers in the past, they have hurt them with the secondary receivers (Houshmanzadeh, Caldwell, etc). With Sanu out, the question will be whether Jones, Hawkins, or Gresham can fill that void. So far, they have been very inconsistent doing so. The Bengals are right in the middle when it comes to passing offense (17^th) and that is solely because of Green. If another receiver steps up, this is a top 10 passing attack. For that to happen against the Steelers defense will be a steep task. The Bengals have more talent when it comes to this matchup between DBs and WRs, but the Steelers have LeBeau, therefore, the Steelers get the edge.

Advantage: Steelers

Coaching

I hate the Steelers. But I love Mike Tomlin. If I could take 1 coach in the NFL for my team, I would take Tomlin. And if I had to pick 1 coach in a must win game, Tomlin would be #2 (Belicheck). Marvin Lewis would not be high on my list. Tomlin is 5-0 in his last 5 games against the Bengals. His players respond to him and with their backs against the wall, I expect them to come out playing well. In playoff scenarios, Lewis’s teams generally come out flat, looking unprepared and making mistakes. Not a good thing in a big game.

Advantage: Steelers

Conclusion

The winner of this game will make the playoffs as the 6 seed. Sure, the Bengals can still make the playoffs if they lose this game, but they would need to beat Baltimore and hope the Browns could beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. I don’t see the Browns beating Pittsburgh again. So, don’t be fooled, this is a playoff/play in game for both teams. On top of that, this is a ‘prove yourself’ game for Andy Dalton. Dalton is a good promising young QB. He is 17-13 as a starter. He is only 1 of 3 QBs to throw 20+ TDs in their first 2 seasons (Marino and Peyton Manning). But, he has yet to beat the Ravens or the Steelers (0-6).  In games against teams other than the Steelers, Andy Dalton’s completion percentage is 61% and he averages 233 ypg. Against the Steelers, his completion percentage is  49% and he averages just 136 ypg. For Dalton and this Bengals team to get taken seriously, Dalton has to beat the Steelers and Ravens. I’m not exactly sure why, but my gut says Dalton finally gets it done.

Prediction:

Bengals 24, Steelers 20