In the second half of the season, the Cincinnati Bengals
have been the best team in the AFC North. Despite being 5-1 (compared to the
2-4 Steelers and the 3-3 Ravens) and in 2nd place in the AFC North
the Bengals are still an afterthought in the national media and seen as the “Other
Team” in the AFC North. For once, I agree with the national media. In order to
be talked about with the “Big Boys,” you have to beat the “Big Boys.” Andy
Dalton and these Bengals have yet to prove they can do that. Dalton is 17-7
against all teams not named the Steelers and Ravens and 0-6 against teams named
the Steelers and Ravens. Until Dalton and this Bengals team beat the Steelers
and Ravens, they will continue to be seen as the third team in the AFC North,
regardless of their record. They get their chance these next two weeks, rarely
have the Steelers and Ravens looked so vulnerable.
When the Steelers Run the Ball
It sounds like Rashard Mendenhall may be active this week. I’m
not sure the Steelers fans should be happy about that or not. While none of the
Steelers RBs have been very effective this year (the Steelers are 26th
in the NFL in rushing), Mendenhall is the only Steelers RB who does not have a
100 yard game. In fact, the Steelers have only had 3 games this year with a 100
yard rusher, and haven’t had one since Redman went for 147 in week 9. However,
1 of their 3 100 yard games did come against these Bengals when Dwyer went for
122 in week 7. But, this is not the same Bengals defense. The last time these
teams met, Crocker was just back and not starting, Burfict was new to the lineup,
Rey Maualuga was still fat, and the defense as a whole was not playing well.
Crocker is not starting at SS, Burfict is playing much better and faster,
Maualuga is less fat, and the Bengals are now 9th against the run.
In fact, the last 100 yard rusher the Bengals allowed was Dwyer. I believe the
Steelers will have some success running delayed draws and reverses, but when
they line up and run traditionally, I give the Bengals the edge.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Steelers Throw the Ball
Most teams run to set up the pass. The Steelers used to run
to set up the run. These Steelers would much rather throw and they are very
good at it. The Steelers are 10th in passing, despite missing
Roethlisberger for 3 games and Antonio Brown for multiple games. In fact, last
week, when Roethlisberger complained about the play calling, he threw for 339
yards. The Steelers have a deep and versatile receiving corps. They can stretch
the field with Mike Wallace, one of the (if not the) fastest WRs in the game.
They can come underneath with Brown, an excellent slot receiver. Or, they can
beat you down the middle with Heath Miller, likely the most complete and
underrated TE in the league. The Bengals, despite having the 12th
ranked passing defense, cannot cover the Steelers receivers. That ranking is a
result of the league leading 43 sacks. When they get pressure on the QB, the
secondary can hold their own. When they don’t, the secondary gets exposed. The
Steelers are depleted on the O-line, so the Bengals should be able to get
pressure on Roethlisberger, but the key will be whether or not they can
actually get him down. Roethlisberger is the best and most dangerous QB in the
league when it comes to extending plays. If he can escape the pressure and
extend plays, he will expose what has been a disappointing Bengals secondary.
While I like the Bengals D-line over the Steelers O-line, the Steelers
receivers are far better than the Bengals secondary.
Advantage: Steelers
When the Bengals Run the Ball
When these teams met in week 7, the Bengals run offense was
struggling and BJGE was looking like a real disappointing signing. Something
changed in the run game the last 5 weeks. After going the first 9 games with no
100+ yard games, BJGE has gone over 100 4 of the last five. The Bengals running
attack is now ranked 11th, but playing like a top 10 or maybe even
top 5 running attack. They will need it against the Steelers. The Steelers have
the 4th ranked run defense and haven’t given up a 100 yard rusher
since week 10 against the Chiefs. However, in 2 of their last 3 games, they
have given up 5.8+ ypc to RBs (Murray 5.8, Rice 6.5). The Bengals will need to
run the ball and stick to running the ball, if for no other reason than to keep
the Steelers from focusing on Green. If the Bengals can have success running
the ball, they will force the Steelers to pull coverage from Green, or allow
the run game to beat them. A few weeks ago, I would have given the Steelers run
defense the edge, hands down. However, the recent edge would go to the Bengals.
I believe whoever wins this matchup will win the game.
Advantage: Push
When the Bengals Throw the Ball
The Steelers have the #1 ranked passing defense, which is
astounding given the injuries they have had on defense. This week will be no
different. Ike Taylor, who over the years has shut down the Bengals top WRs
(Chad Johnson, AJ Green) on multiple occasions, will be out again. Of course
that won’t stop Dick LeBeau from trying to scheme a way to neutralize Green.
Without Taylor, that will likely be harder to do, but LeBeau is one of the best
defensive minds of all time (if not the best), so I don’t put it past LeBeau.
The question will be, can the running game or another WR or TE step up and hurt
the Steelers? When the Bengals have had success over the Steelers in the past,
they have hurt them with the secondary receivers (Houshmanzadeh, Caldwell,
etc). With Sanu out, the question will be whether Jones, Hawkins, or Gresham
can fill that void. So far, they have been very inconsistent doing so. The
Bengals are right in the middle when it comes to passing offense (17th)
and that is solely because of Green. If another receiver steps up, this is a
top 10 passing attack. For that to happen against the Steelers defense will be
a steep task. The Bengals have more talent when it comes to this matchup
between DBs and WRs, but the Steelers have LeBeau, therefore, the Steelers get
the edge.
Advantage: Steelers
Coaching
I hate the Steelers. But I love Mike Tomlin. If I could take
1 coach in the NFL for my team, I would take Tomlin. And if I had to pick 1
coach in a must win game, Tomlin would be #2 (Belicheck). Marvin Lewis would
not be high on my list. Tomlin is 5-0 in his last 5 games against the Bengals.
His players respond to him and with their backs against the wall, I expect them
to come out playing well. In playoff scenarios, Lewis’s teams generally come
out flat, looking unprepared and making mistakes. Not a good thing in a big
game.
Advantage: Steelers
Conclusion
The winner of this game will make the playoffs as the 6
seed. Sure, the Bengals can still make the playoffs if they lose this game, but
they would need to beat Baltimore and hope the Browns could beat the Steelers
in Pittsburgh. I don’t see the Browns beating Pittsburgh again. So, don’t be
fooled, this is a playoff/play in game for both teams. On top of that, this is
a ‘prove yourself’ game for Andy Dalton. Dalton is a good promising young QB.
He is 17-13 as a starter. He is only 1 of 3 QBs to throw 20+ TDs in their first
2 seasons (Marino and Peyton Manning). But, he has yet to beat the Ravens or
the Steelers (0-6). In games against
teams other than the Steelers, Andy Dalton’s completion percentage is 61% and
he averages 233 ypg. Against the Steelers, his completion percentage is 49% and he averages just 136 ypg. For Dalton
and this Bengals team to get taken seriously, Dalton has to beat the Steelers
and Ravens. I’m not exactly sure why, but my gut says Dalton finally gets it
done.
Prediction:
Bengals 24, Steelers 20
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