In golf, it
always seems like you can never get all facets of your game to click at the
same time. There are few “Good” golfers. We all can, at times, have a good
shot. Maybe even a good part of our game. However, the reason we are not overall
“Good” golfers, is because we can’t get all parts of our game working at the
same time and do it consistently. If we could, we would be tough to beat on the
golf course. But, when your driver is going well, your putter deserts you. When
your short game picks up, you couldn’t hand place your ball in the fairway. NFL
teams are like golf games. Rarely are all phases clicking at the same time,
but, when they are, any team is tough to beat. The 2012 Bengals have all three
phases (offense, defense, special teams) of their game clicking. And, right
now, the 2012 Bengals are tough to beat. Don’t tell me the Chiefs and Raiders
suck. The Chiefs record sucks, but the Chiefs do have Jamaal Charles, Derrick
Johnson, Dewayne Bowe, Eric Berry, Tamba Hali. They have players capable of
winning games they are just not playing well in all facets. Same with the
Raiders. These are still NFL teams and the Bengals have beat their last 3
opponents by an average of 21.3 points. That is damn good! Oh yeah, and the
third team in that streak was the Giants. The 2011 Super Bowl Champion Giants.
The same Giants team the Bengals beat by 18, just beat the Green Bay Aaron
Rodgers’s by 28 … and neither game was as close as the score indicates. What
has changed? The Bengals are getting complete all-around games. Playing well in
all three phases is rare in the NFL. Teams that do it on a consistent basis win
on a consistent basis, and often times, win big.
What does
that mean for Sunday? It means as long as they play the way they have been
playing, they will win. However, things can change on the gridiron just as
quickly as they change on the links. The Chargers are not playing well, but
this is a team that many picked to win the AFC West. They have plenty of talent
to be dangerous (Rivers, Mathews, Gates, etc), but are greatly underperforming.
When the Chargers Run the Ball
Ryan Mathews
is healthy after breaking his collarbone in the pre-season and averaging a
respectable 4.1 ypc, but, he only has 3 TD on the season and the Chargers run
offense is ranked 25th. They have not had a RB rush for 100 yards in
2012. In fact, they have only had a RB go over 80 yards once this season
(Mathews 95 yards in week 8 against the Browns). They have half as many rushing
TDs as the Bengals (4 and 8 respectively). The Bengals run defense is ranked
just 17th, but that is a product of some very poor games at the
start of the season when the defense as a whole was struggling. The defense is
playing very well the past few weeks and should be able to keep the SD running
game in check.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Chargers Throw the Ball
Hopefully the
Bengals coaches have been focusing on getting the secondary to turn around when
the ball is in the air. Phillip Rivers has 14 interceptions on the year. Going
into the week, that was the 2nd worst in the league (Romo – 15). To
make matters worse (for Rivers and SD), Rivers also has 8 fumbles. That is 22 turnovers
in 11 games! The moral of the story? When Rivers is in the pocket, go for the
ball – when Rivers throws the ball, turn around. To say Rivers is having a down
year would be an understatement. While he does have a respectable 18 TDs and a
career high in completion percentage (66.8%), he is on pace for some of his
worst numbers since he became a starter in 2006. Rivers is on pace for his
worst numbers since 2007 in: Average (7.15), Yards (3,911), TDs (26), and Rating
(88.0). The key will be to shut down Antonio Gates. While he is no longer the
player he used to be, he is still a big reliable target for Rivers and the
Bengals struggle covering any TE, let alone perennial Pro-Bowlers. Look for the
Bengals to focus on shutting down SD’s passing game and force SD to beat them
on the ground. I don’t believe SD can do that.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals Run the Ball
Through 9
games, BJGE had 0 games over 100 yards. He now has 100+ yards in his last two
games and Cedric Peerman is beginning to fill in nicely as the change of pace
back. With the running game finally having success, teams can’t cheat on the
pass. That has meant good things for the Bengals offense as they have averaged
31.0 ppg over their 3 game winning streak. SD will be a good measuring stick
for the progress of the Bengals running game. The SD defense is ranked 5th
and is clearly the strength of theis SD team. On the flip side, despite the
recent success, the Bengals run game is still the weak spot of the Bengals offense.
SD, like many of teams before them, will focus on Green and the Bengals passing
attack and force the Bengals to try and beat them on the ground. I still need
to see more consistency from the running attack before trusting them.
Advantage: Chargers
When the Bengals Throw the Ball
The Bengals don’t
need to run for 130 yards in this game, but it will be important for the
Bengals to have enough success in the run game to keep the SD defense honest.
If they can do that, they can take advantage of SD’s weakness, the league’s 20th
ranked passing defense. The Bengals passing attack took a big blow this week
when Mohamed Sanu broke his foot and looks to be out for the year. Sanu had
established himself as a legit #2 and gave the Bengals offense some flexibility
with his ability to also run and throw. It looks like Hawkins and Marvin Jones
should be back this week and they, along with Gresham’s recent play, can help
to lessen the blow of the Sanu injury. Despite the loss of Sanu, I believe the
Bengals receivers are a mismatch for an already poor SD pass defense that will
be missing 2 safeties on Sunday.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaching
Norv Turner
and Marvin Lewis have combined to coach 395 games in the NFL and both are just
shy of the .500 mark (Lewis - .484; Turner - .479). So, from a career perspective,
they are a toss up. However, if you look at which coach has their finger on the
pulse of their team in 2012, Lewis seems to have his team’s ear while Turner
seems to have lost his team. After starting 3-1, the Chargers have lost 6 of
their last 7 including 2 crushing losses: 1) blowing a 24-0 halftime lead to
the Broncos and 2) last week in a game needed to save their season, SD gave up
a 4th and 29 to the Ravens, allowing the Ravens to kick a game tying
FG and go on to win in OT. This SD team seems to have tuned out Norv Turner. On
the other hand, remember when in the midst of a 4 game losing streak, Marvin
Lewis called out Dalton and Maualuga? I did not think that was what the team
needed, and while I still am not a fan of doing that in the media, it worked.
The Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak, during which we have seen drastic
improvements in Maualuga’s play and have seen Dalton throw 9 TDs and 0 picks.
Give Marvin credit. As a whole, these coaches are the same, in 2012, Lewis is
the better coach for his team.
Advantage: Bengals
Conclusion
Both teams
have the talent to be top NFL teams and both have underperformed in 2012. However,
entering week 13, these two teams are going in two drastically different
directions. SD has lost 6 of 7 and looked bad in doing so. The Bengals on the
other hand are on a 3 game winning streak and have looked like one of the best
teams in football during that time. While the Bengals are notoriously bad on
the West Coast, this is a must win game for a Bengals team that has found its’
groove going against a team teetering on implosion. It will be important for
the Bengals to do what they have done the last 3 weeks and jump on their
opponent early. If they can, the boos and ‘here we go agains’ will start flying
in SD and be very difficult for the Chargers to overcome. While I don’t see a
blowout, I do see the Bengals taking care of business.
Prediction
Bengals 24,
Chargers 20
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