Bengals v Steelers Wrap-Up -- Goodbye 2012

The Steelers never looked so beatable. They entered Sunday night’s game at 2-3, 0 wins on the road, missing two starting offensive lineman, starting their 3^rd string RB, and missing their all-pro safety. The Bengals had a 14-6 lead at home with 1:30 left in the first half, with the ball around midfield, 3 timeouts remaining and getting the ball coming out of half….and they lost. They lost because Sunday night was a must win game for both teams. The Steelers and Mike Tomlin find ways to win must win games. The Bengals and Marvin Lewis find ways to lose must win games. As if written by Seth McFarlane, Dalton was picked at midfield, the Steelers score a TD right at the end of the half, go for two and enter halftime (after being completely outplayed in the first half), tied 14-14. The way the Bengals played in the second half, 14-14 might as well have been a 21 point lead for the Steelers. 12-2. That is the Steelers record against the Bengals in Cincinnati over the last 14 games. Embarrassing. 

What I Did Like – Very Little

Mike Wallace

Mike Wallace, trying to “one up” Jermaine Gresham with drops, was likely the Bengals MVP Sunday night. He single handedly kept the Bengals in the game.

Vontaze Burfict

Is it bad when your best player is an undrafted rookie free agent? 15 tackles, 13 solo, and 2 tackles for a loss. Burfict looked like a beast Sunday night. He is the only LB on this team worthy of being a starting NFL LB and quite frankly, should be playing MLB. Lewis claims personnel changes are coming after the bye week. He has already said Maualuga won’t be one of them…lets’ hope switching Burfict and Maualuga is still being considered.

Geno Atkins

Most underrated DT in the league and quietly, top 5 DT in the league. Another sack for Atkins gives him 7 for the season now. Atkins and Burfict were the only difference makers on this defense Sunday night.

0 Sacks by OL

While I did not think the line played particularly well, give them credit for giving up 0 sacks to the Steelers.

What I Didn’t Like – Pretty Much Everything

In no particular order:

Andy Dalton

Good first drive. Nice TD pass to Green. Other than that, brutal. 14/28, 105 yards, and 1 more crucial INT. He has now thrown a pick in every game this year, which ties Palmer’s franchise record (7). That is now 13 picks in his last 8 games. This team is not going to win if Dalton doesn’t start making better decisions and protecting the ball. The Bengals were about 30 yards from FG range when Dalton threw his pick. With 3 timeouts, a1:30 on the clock, and the ball around midfield, the Bengals had a great chance of going into the half up 17-6 or even 21-6 and getting the ball coming out of half. Instead, Dalton threw an all too common critical pick which allowed the Steelers to tie the game right before half. This team cannot win with Dalton being so careless with the football.

Jermaine Gresham

If I wanted a big TE that drops passes and misses blocks, I would have kept Daniel Coates. It is becoming comical watching Gresham catch passes. It’s like he is trying to catch the ball between two tennis racquets. At some point, Dalton will stop trusting him and defenses will not bother covering him. At this point, it may be worthwhile to see what Orson Charles can give them.

AJ Green

Right from the open, Green did not seem like himself (dropping pass right in his hands on first drive). AJ Green is the best player on this team. 1 catch for 8 yards from your best player is not acceptable. Teams will focus on shutting down Green, and Green (and Gruden) have to find a ways to not allow that to happen.

WRs Not Named AJ Green

It will continue to get more and more difficult to get Green the ball until the Bengals develop another offensive threat. Early in the season, that was Hawkins. For whatever reason, Hawkins has disappeared recently, including 2 catches for 17 yards Sunday night. Gresham’s drops, combined with Hawkins and Binns simultaneous disappearance is killing this offense. Until the defense has to respect anyone but AJ Green, this offense will struggle.

BJGE

While he played better Sunday night, it is sad when 18 carries for 69 yards is one of your RBs best performances of the year. Sure, he isn’t working behind the best of lines, but with the team bringing in Deji Karim today, that tells me they are a little frustrated as well.

 

Jay Gruden

Where has the offense gone? 185 yards? 105 yards after the first drive? Really? After energizing Bengals fans, the team, and the NFL as a whole in weeks 2 and 3, this offense seems to have disappeared. Remember when Gruden’s name was hot among names for future head coaches? Did Gruden only have enough good plays for 2 weeks? Did he burn them all already? Here is my theory: Gruden’s offense seemed to turn vanilla and predictable starting in the week 4 game in Jacksonville. Who is Jacksonville’s OC? Bob Bratkowski. It is my theory that Gruden and Brat met for Mojitos at a local watering hole and Bob either: 1) got Jay to buy in to his offensively genius ways, or 2) Bob tied up Jay somewhere in Jacksonville, stole his Bengals gear and is back in the booth disguised as Jay. Either way, this offense has sucked the past few weeks, and it needs to stop.

Leon Hall

The fact he is back from the torn achilles so soon is impressive. He should not be starting at CB though. He looks more like Rod Jones or Corey Sawyer than Leon Hall. Sunday night he was repeatedly beaten, and not even by top WRs. Most disturbing was being beaten on the 2 point conversion by a blocking TE and then later, on a crucial third down, he was beaten by the 3^rd WR, Emmanuel Sanders. After the Bye, Kirkpatrick needs to start.

The Secondary in General

Through 7 weeks, the secondary has accounted for 2 INTs…and both of those have come by a guy who was out of football for 9 months and didn’t join the team until the 4^th game (Crocker). Sunday night the secondary was made to look silly trying to cover the Steelers (especially Brown). If not for the Steelers doing their best Jermaine Gresham impression, the numbers would have been much worse.

The DL

The DL is the strength of this defense. They can generate pressure with the best in the league, and they need to in order to keep their secondary from getting exposed. Sunday night, they got 3 sacks, but, considering the banged up line they were facing, and the chances they had, that was not a very good effort. On multiple occasions the DL had a shot at Roethliberger and a chance to get the defense off the field, and on most occasions, they failed.

Rey Maualuga

My fingers subconsciously type his name here every week. Marvin said today that the upcoming personnel changes do not include Rey, and in fact, Rey has been “playing better” of late. Excuse me? Is he watching the same game I am? Every pass attempted in Rey’s area is completed. Every eligible receiver covered by Rey is waiving for the ball before the ball is snapped. Every run up the middle sees Rey getting cleared out of the way by the FB or OL. Bengals season ticket holders have a better chance of being appreciated than Rey has of getting off a block. Even Lewis admitted the 33 yard run up the middle on 3^rd and 7 by Jerome Bettis, I mean Jonathan Dwyer, to seal the game was Rey’s fault. The only time I notice Rey is when I see his orange horse mane chasing a receiver (his guy) down field. Yet, he is “playing better.” Ok Marvin, I believe you. Just like I believe your first challenge was a good use of a timeout. If he isn’t taken out of the lineup, hopefully Burfict will at least take his spot at MLB

Zimmer

431 yards? 10-16 on 3^rd down conversions? If the Steelers could catch, it would have been 600. Seriously. It seems like Zimmer is somehow escaping heat when it comes to this team. This defense was supposed to be better than last years’ top 5 group. The line has been good. Everything else? Terrible. 122 yards on 17 carries (7.2 ypc) to Jonathan Dwyer. The slow fat third string RB with 343 career yards to his name. Even Jonathan Dwyer’s mom doesn’t think he is a NFL RB. In the previous three weeks, MJD, Reggie Bush, and Trent ran for 123 yards on 46 carries (2.7 ypc) and then Dwyer goes for 122 on 17? Oh, and by the way how many times are the Bengals going to fall for the bubble screen play where the WR throws deep? The Steelers run that play every time against the Bengals, and every time it works! If not for butterfingers Batch, it would have gone for a 50+ yard TD Sunday night.

Marvin Lewis

Later in the week, we will dive deeper into the disappointments over the past 10 years under Lewis, but let’s focus on Sunday night. While I am still perplexed as to what the game plan was going into Sunday night and what goes on in the Bengals halftime locker room, I want to focus on the first challenge. WTF? 2^nd and 8 and he challenges a runner being down by contact…on a 2 yard gain! If you win the challenge, it is 3^rd and 8 rather than 3^rd and 6. What the hell is the difference? Worse yet, Ray Charles could see it wasn’t going to be over turned. Did this cost them the game? No. But if he hates timeouts so bad, just give them away, don’t waste our time making stupid challenges. That challenge ipitomizes the brilliance of a Marvin Lewis challenge. If there is such thing as a No Win scenario, that was it. Is challenging that call the “killer instinct” Marvin was talking about? Also, how does your team lose that game? Coming off two losses to bad teams, playing at home, on SNF, against a hated rival, in a game you have to win, and your team comes out and produces 185 yards on offense and 431 on defense? And while we’re banging on Marvin, why does Marvin always look so confused on the sideline? Teams feed off their coach’s demeanor. Watch the demeanor of good coaches….then watch Lewis

I said going into this game, this was a must win for both. At 3-4 the Bengals are only .5 game out of the Wild Card, but, they have buried themselves in a hole that will likely prove too deep to get out of. The reason the Bengals made the playoffs last year, is because they beat the teams they should beat. The goal this year was to beat those teams, as well as some better teams. So far, that hasn’t happened. At the start of the year, I picked the Bengals to go 10-6, but said I would not be surprised if they went 6-10. In those 10 wins, I counted on the Miami, Cleveland and Pittsburgh at home. We talked about how the Bengals, because of the difficulty of their 2^nd half schedule, had to hit the bye week at 6-1, 5-2 minimum. Had they done that, they would be in excellent shape. Now they sit at 3-4 with games remaining against the Broncos, Giants, Chargers, Cowboys, Eagles, Ravens, and Steelers. At this point, it is difficult to see how the Bengals even get to 6 wins. After 4 weeks, this team looked to be in great shape, 3-1, 1 of 3 teams in the AFC with a winning record and looking at games against Miami and Cleveland. 3 weeks later, at 3-4, it looks like this team’s season is over. As much as it pains me to say it, Sunday night’s game leaves way more questions than it does answers. The most important of which is: “When’s the draft?”

Bengals v Steelers Preview

This game will be played in Cincinnati, which means the Steelers have a better chance of winning than if it were played in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are a staggering10-1 in their last 11 trips to the Queen City, and only 6-4 in Pittsburgh during that same stretch - essentially making PBS their home away from home. No surprise, with the Steelers dominance in Cincinnati and the Bengals back to back losses to Cleveland and Miami, the Steelers are favored yet again in PBS. Many (including NBC) thought this game would be a big game. Well, it is a big game, but probably not for the reason everyone expected. At the start of the season, this game had the making of potential AFC North implications - now it looks like a game merely to keep a season alive. A loss by the Steelers would drop them to 2-4 and in danger of missing the playoffs, while a loss by the Bengals would drop them to 3-4 and 1-3 in the division. At 3-4, with all the mediocrity in the AFC, the Bengals would still be alive in the wildcard picture, but it would end their chances at a division title. Here’s what to watch for in Week 7 Bengals v Steelers:

 

When the Steelers Run the Ball

The Steelers have built a reputation on hardnosed, old school, ground and pound football. It used to be when you played the Steelers, you knew what to expect. They were going to run it right at you and bet that you couldn’t stop them. Most of the time they were correct. Even when teams knew it was coming, the Steelers would run the ball straight down their throat (and the Bengals had the largest throat of them all – insert joke here). Not this year’s team. Somewhere Jerome Bettis (who is from Detroit by the way) is cringing watching this paltry, 31^st ranked run offense. The problems in the Steelers run game is twofold: 1) Rashard Mendenhall has been hurt and will be out again (and Redman (also out), Dwyer and Rainey are not NFL caliber starting RBs; and 2) this Steelers OL, even healthy, is not as good as Steelers O-Lines in the past. Lucky for the Bengals, the Steelers line is still not healthy. RT Marcus Gilbert is expected to miss Sunday’s game, and C Maurkice Pouncey is questionable. The Bengals run defense, though ranked 21^st, has looked much better the past three weeks, holding MJD, Reggie Bush, and Trent Richardson to a very impressive combined total of 123 yards on 46 carries (2.7ypc) and 1 TD. MJD, Bush, Richardson > Steelers RBs, therefore, I think the Bengals will be able to stop the Steelers run game and make the Steelers one dimensional.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Steelers Throw the Ball

I believe the Bengals can make the Steelers one dimensional. I also believe the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger could care less about that. In fact, they will probably thank them. The 17^th pass ranking the Bengals defense owns is grossly deceiving. The Bengals secondary (and LBs) are high on first round picks and names, low on productivity. This secondary has 1 INT in 6 games. This secondary has been lit up by Flacco, RGIII, Weeden (2x), and Tannehill. This secondary has faced 4 rookies and Blaine Gabbert, yet still has only 1 INT. Ben Roethlisber > Flacco, RGIII, Weeden, Tannehill, and Gabbert. The Steelers receivers (Brown, Wallace, Miller) > all the receivers the Bengals have faced so far…combined. Maybe the Bengals secondary will surprise me. Maybe the Bengals D-Line can get enough pressure on Ben to help the secondary. I’m not counting on either. Ben vs this secondary makes me cringe.

Advantage: Steelers

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball

Ok, stop laughing. The Bengals will try running the ball. That will likely make the Steelers laugh. The Steelers are currently ranked 20^th in the rush, that is likely to improve. The Bengals have struggled mightily in the run game of late. In the offseason, the Bengals picked up BJGE to help improve their run game and short yardage situations. That hasn’t happened so far. At 3.4 ypc, 2 TDs, and 3 more fumbles in 2 games than he had in his previous 580 touches, BJGE has been slightly disappointing. In defense of BJGE, it is not all his fault. He has been running behind a young, patch work OL, that has BJGE dodging defenders before getting to the line of scrimmage. Look for the Bengals to use the run game just enough to try and keep the Steelers defense honest.

Advantage: Steelers

When the Bengals Throw the Ball

Despite the Steelers defense being ranked 4^th, look for the Bengals to put the ball in the air. This ranking is a bit deceiving, as the Steelers, like the Bengals, have faced 1 competent passer – Manning - and Manning, with new receivers and a new offense, went for 253 yds, 2 TDs and 0 INTs in his first game in 15 months. While Dalton has made some mistakes in the past two weeks, he has also put up impressive numbers and Dalton > Sanchez, Palmer, Vick, and Hasselbeck combined. The key will be Dalton protecting the ball. With Dalton this year, that has been easier said than done. Dalton has been picked off in every game this year, including 3 last week and 3 pick 6’s on the season. Dalton will benefit from Polumalu’s absence, and I look for Gruden to get back to his creative offense, which disappeared during this 2 game losing streak. Despite Dalton’s INT issues, he has AJ Green, therefore, I like Dalton in this matchup.

Advantage: Bengals

Coaching

Not much of contest here. Tomlin is 62-31, 8-2 vs Lewis, 2 Super Bowl appearances and 1 Super Bowl ring. Lewis is 72-77-1, 5-14 against Pittsburgh, and 0-3 in the postseason. This could be a close game, and if so, it may come down to crucial game strategy and game/clock management. When it comes to clock management, game strategy, and overall winning, Tomlin > Lewis.

Advantage: Steelers

 

Conclusion

This is a big game. Not for the team that wins, but for the team that loses. The team that loses is out of the division race and is in a tough scramble for the wild card. Both teams come into this game with their backs against the wall and needing the win. The Steelers are 2-4, beat up, and looking very beatable. The Bengals are coming off back to back losses to bad teams. Unfortunately, these are the types of games the Steelers win and the Bengals lose. The Steelers usually play their best in must win games – Tomlin and this team have a history of it. The Bengals and Marvin Lewis, on the other hand, have a history of failing (often miserably) in big must win games, i.e. ’12 MNF opener, ’11, ’09, ’05 playoffs, last game of ’06, etc. Tomlin and his teams have shown the ability to win big games. Lewis and his teams have yet to show they can win the must win games. Until they do, I will pick the Steelers.

Prediction

This pains me, but I believe the Steelers win in a shootout. I really hope I am wrong.

Steelers 34, Bengals 31

My Objectively Bi Polar Take on the Dusty Baker Re-Signing

Like it or not, Dusty Baker is coming back. Earlier this week, the Reds brass decided to bring Dusty back for two more years and see if he can finish what he started. While I believe it is was time to move on, I can’t fault the Reds for going this direction.

Full disclosure, I am not a big Dusty Baker fan - never was when he was in SF, never was when he was in Chicago (except for when the Cubs were sucking, then I was). I didn’t like when they hired him in the first place, but, they could have done much worse. I will give Dusty credit for what he has done with the Reds since taking over in 2007. With the exception of 2011, the Reds have improved each year under Dusty. This year, they won 97 games…that is pretty good. Despite that, Dusty took a lot of crap from fans and media. Always has. Some deserved, some not. The reason I would have moved on has nothing to do with Dusty’s regular season success. The reason I would have moved on is due to the lack of his postseason success.

First, let’s look at the Facts:

Good

• The Reds have improved each year (except 2010) under Dusty.
• Dusty is the first manager to take the Reds to multiple playoffs since Sparky Anderson
• Dusty has 1,581 wins
• Dusty ranks 19^th all-time on the wins list.

Bad

• Dusty has 0 rings.
• Only one manager has more wins than Dusty without a ring (Gene Mauch – 1902 wins).
• But, Mauch had a losing record (.483) and only 2 playoff appearances in 26 yrs – Dusty has 6 in 19 yrs.
• Of the top 20 managers (in terms of wins), Dusty and Mauch are the only ones without a ring.
• Only 2 managers have 6+ playoff appearances and 0 rings – Dusty Baker 6 playoff appearances in 19 years and Ron Gardenhire 6 appearances in 11 years.
• Last 4 postseason series:

o    2012 NLDS v SF– Up 2-0. Lost 3-2 (lose 3 in a row at home).

o    2010 NLDS v Phi – Swept 0-3 (including being no hit).

o    2003 NLCS v Fla – Up 3-1. Lost 4-3 (including game 6 and 7 at home).

o    2002 WS v LAA – Up 3-2. Lost 4-3

Dusty’s history with the Reds

The reason I would have moved on is because I believe Dusty has taken this team as far as he can take them. I have no doubt he can coach them to regular season success. His loyalty and calm, steady demeanor works well over the long grinding season. However, it doesn’t work well in the playoffs. In the playoffs, you don’t have the luxury of ‘staying with’ things. You have to coach with urgency. Look at the 2012 NLDS for example. Dusty’s calm demeanor helped in game 1 when Cueto went down. But, when the Reds came home, and lost game 3 in heartbreaking fashion, the team didn’t seem to have any urgency. It seemed as if they played game 4 as if a win in game 5 was guaranteed. Three times in that series, Dusty needed to coach with more urgency and three times he did not: 

1.     Latos should have pitched game 4, not Leake. 

2.     If Leake did pitch game 4, he needed a short leash. That is exactly what Bochy did with Zito (he basically had guys warming up on the first pitch). Once Leake gave up the 2^nd HR in the 2^nd inning to put the Giants up 3-1, Dusty needed to pull him. 

3.     Dusty needed to pull Latos. In the 5^th inning of game 5, Latos unraveled. It was clear to the announcers, fans and anyone watching/listening that the ump had gotten to Latos. The only one who didn’t seem to realize, was Dusty. Latos should have never faced Buster Posey with the bases loaded. If the Reds get out of that inning only giving up 3 runs instead of 6, they likely are playing right now in the NLCS. 

In 2010, the Phillies had a better team and home field advantage. While I don’t like losing 3-0, no sane person thought the Reds would win that series and no sane person can blame Baker for that series. But, in 2012, the Reds had the better team, home field advantage, and a 2-0 lead coming home for 3 straight – when you lose in that situation the manager takes a lot of the blame. Even up 2-0, you have to coach with urgency; the close out game is always the toughest to win. Down 2 games to none, Bochy coached with urgency, Dusty did not. Dusty went home, Bochy did not.

Past Postseason Collapses

In Dusty’s last 4 postseason series, he has overseen 3 collapses (2012 up 2-0, lost 3-2; 2003 up 3-1, lost 4-3; 2002 up 3-2, lost 4-3) and a sweep (2010). Is that all Dusty’s fault? Of course not. Dusty didn’t give up any HRs in 2002, he didn’t make any errors in 2003, he didn’t get no hit in 2010, and he didn’t fail to hit in the clutch in 2012. But, he was the manager of the teams that did. He is the manager that in all 4 situations, could not turn his team around when things started going downhill in a short series. And as the manager, a good portion of that failure has to stick to you.

But, Let’s Not Get Silly….

Dusty is a good coach. You don’t coach for 19 years, make 6 playoff appearances, and win 1,581 games if you are not a good coach. I ask all you Dusty bashers, who would you bring in if you didn’t bring Dusty back? Ron Oester? I admit, though I personally would not have brought him back, I don’t have an answer to that question. Sure, I would have liked Francona, but who says he would come here. There aren’t a lot of World Series caliber coaches just sitting out there waiting to be hired. While I think this roster could have lured a great coach, I don’t know that for sure. Let’s just say they could have done much worse than bringing back a coach with 1,581 wins whom the players like playing for. How quick Reds fans (myself included) forget what things used to be like (remember Bob Boone? Dave Miley? Jerry Narron?) .

So, like it or not, we have Dusty for 2 more years. Let’s just hope the Reds front office gets him a legit leadoff man and takes Stubbs off the roster for him, that way we can stop having our intelligence insulted by Dusty telling us the Stubbs is a legitimate major league ball player (let alone a leadoff man).