Reds vs Giants NLDS Preview

The Reds and Giants open up the NLDS on Saturday night at AT&T Park in SF and I expect this to be a close, low scoring series predicated on pitching and timely hitting. So, who has the advantage?

Starting Pitching

We all know that in the playoffs, pitching wins, and starting pitching has been a strength for both teams all year.

Stat	Reds	Giants
ERA	3.36	3.67
WHIP	0.98	1.28
BAA	.247	.248
SO	1237	1229
Bullpen ERA	2.66	3.50

http://www.wcpo.com/dpp/sports/baseball/reds/cincinnati-reds-and-san-francisco-giants-by-the-numbers

Both teams have released their starters for Games 1-3. The Reds have released Bailey will start Game 4, but the Giants have not announced a Game 4 starter as of yet. With the way Cueto and Latos have been pitching, I would pitch Latos in Games 1 and 5 and Cueto at home in Game 3, but Dusty has already deemed Cueto will go Games 1 and 5. With that being the case, I agree with Dusty's rotation of Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey, Cueto. I like to put Arroyo (soft thrower – Frisbee), between Cueto and Latos (both hard throwers). Here is my game-by-game pitching matchup breakdown

Game 1 – Cueto (2.78) v Cain (2.79) – On paper, this looks like an even matchup. However, the Reds have had success against Cain this year. In 2 starts against the Reds in 2012, Cain is 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA and 4 HR, including a 4.26 ERA in GABP. Cueto against the Giants in 2012 is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Not great, but I like Cueto in this matchup. 

Game 2 – Frisbee (3.74) v Bumgarner (3.37) – Frisbee is 0-0 against the Giants in 2 starts this year with a 2.45 ERA. In SF, he pitched 6 innings, 2 R, 7 H. The big outfield should help Frisbee. What will hurt him, is Bumgarner. At AT&T Park, Bumgarner has a 2.38 ERA, including a 1 H complete game against the Reds. While I think Frisbee will pitch well, I favor Bumgarner in this matchup.

Game 3 – Latos (3.48) v Lincecum (5.18) – Latos has had success against the Giants. 2-0 in 2012 – 16.0 IN, 6 H 1 R and a 0.56 ERA. While he pitches better in AT&T Park (1.00) than he does in GABP (3.18), who doesn’t. The Giants are clearly going on postseason experience over performance here. Lincecum has postseason experience and postseason success to the tune of 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA. Lincecum did not face the Reds this season, but in 2011, he was 0-1 with a 15.75 ERA against the Reds...and he was pitching well last season; not the case this season. If I were Bochy, I would go with Vogelsong in Game 3. I would take Latos either way, but against Lincecum, I really like Latos.

Game 4 – Bailey (3.68) v Zito (4.15)? – This is a tough one. Bailey is pitching well of late (2.01 ERA in Sept) including a No Hitter in his second to last start. However, he is very inconsistent, has little postseason experience (2.0 IP), and can let one problem snowball. Zito on the other hand, has plenty of postseason experience (44.1 IP) with some success (4-3, 3.25 ERA). However, he was left off the roster in 2010 and hasn’t pitched in the postseason since 2006. Surprisingly, in 2012, Zito has been very good against the Reds. In 2 games, he is 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA, including 6 IP 1 R at GABP. I think this is a toss up game.

Game 5 – Cueto v Cain – If if comes to this, I will take Cueto’s GABP stats (10-3, 2.79 ERA) against Cain (0-1, 4.26 ERA).

Advantage – I give the Reds a slight advantage in starting pitching

Bullpen

This is the only area in this series where one team has a distinct advantage, and that advantage goes to the Reds. While the Giants have a very good bullpen (3.50 ERA), the Reds have the best bullpen in baseball (2.66 ERA), and arguably, the most dominant closer. Chapman looks to be healthy and is a tall task should the Reds have the lead in the 9^th. Consider this stat, Logan Ondrusek (3.46) and Alfredo Simon (2.66) will likely be left off the Reds postseason roster…that is how good this bullpen is.

Advantage - Reds

Offense

Neither team has a great offense. The Giants have a more consistent offense, while the Reds have a more potent offense. The Giants have the advantage in avg, OBP, and runs (.269, .327, 718 v .251, .315, 669), while the Reds have the advantage in SLG%, OPS and HR (.411, .726, 172 v .397, .724, 103). The key here is which Reds offense shows up? The Reds have been ice cold in Sept (.230) while the Giants have been hot (.297). While the Reds have more potential if they get hot, I trust the consistency of the Giants offense more than the streakiness of the Reds.

Advantage – Giants

Defense

Again, very close. Both teams are strong defensively, with the Reds having a slight edge in fielding percentage (.985 v .981). However, three quarters of the Reds infield have Gold Gloves and the Giants do not.

Advantage – Reds

Coaching

Both coaches have been around a long time, piled up a lot of wins, and have had lots of success. However, Bochy has had success when it has mattered most (2010 World Series Champ) and Baker faultered (2002 World Series). While I must admit, my knowledge of Bochy is limited, I am concerned about Baker’s crazy lineups and sometimes detrimental loyalty. For that reason (and the winning of a WS), I give the advantage to Bochy.

Advantage – Giants

Conclusion

Like I said before, I expect this to be a close, low scoring series predicated on pitching and timely hitting. As you can see, I have the Reds with a slight 3-2 advantage in the breakdowns above and that slight advantage, is in the starting pitching. For what it is worth, 29 ESPN ‘Experts’ picked this series, and the breakdown was 15-14 Giants (just shows you how close it is). With how close I see this matchup, conventional wisdom would say it will be a 5 game series…but, I am not conventional! I see the teams splitting in SF and I feel the Reds pitchers and hitters have a big advantage at GABP. Therefore, I see this as a 4 game series.

Prediction

Reds 3-1