Days are getting longer, weather is getting better, spring
training has begun, and sports watching is about to go through the roof! We are
preparing to enter what I consider the best 3 month stretch in the sporting
year. Over the next 3 months, we will have NFL free agency begin, NCAA
conference tournaments, Selection Sunday, the NCAA tournament itself, MLB
Opening Day, NBA playoffs, and my personal favorite, the presentation of the
Stanley Cup. People talk about this being the busy time for accountants, but
what about bloggers? I am currently preparing the staff for the busy season,
loading up on midnight oil, Cheetos, Monster energy drinks, and preparing my
Mom for the constant hum of the keyboard that will be coming from her basement!
Before the madness begins, I want to get into the top two
Reds offseason stories which we have yet to discuss because of the NFL season …
and slacking by my staff: 1) Choo for Stubbs and 2) Chapman in the rotation.
Choo for Stubbs
Yay or Nay?
Big time Yay.
What I like about the deal:
Everything.
I never sugarcoated my feelings for Drew Stubbs. I didn’t
like Drew Stubbs. I didn’t like his baseball IQ. I didn’t like his knowledge of
the strikezone. I didn’t like his approach at the plate. I didn’t like his
inability to bunt. I didn’t like his inability to make contact and take
advantage of his one tool, his speed. I didn’t like his reluctance to steal
when he did get on base. I didn’t like his body language. And, despite what
many said about his defense, I think he is an average CF who happens to have
above average speed. What I also didn’t like about Stubbs was the fact that he
was Dusty Baker’s vice. He had speed, and with Baker, if you have speed,
whether you can hit or not (and Stubbs clearly could not), you must lead off
(see Wily Taveras and Corey Patterson for other Baker examples). Baker still
believes you can steal first base if you are fast enough. I disagree and have
stats, history, and common sense on my side. A leadoff hitters’ job is twofold:
1) make the pitcher show you a lot of pitches so your teammates can see what he
has, and 2) get on base any way you can – hit, walk, error, HBP (ala Bill Dorn),
etc. Stubbs did neither.
My biggest issue with Stubbs was his ability to render the
best hitter in baseball (Votto) less effective because of his inability to get
on base in front of Votto. Joey Votto is best hitter in all of baseball. He is
also as close as it gets to a sure thing when it comes to RBIs. His stats in
2012 did not reflect this (14 HR, 56 RBI), but that is because he didn’t have
runners on base in front of him (and injury). Take a look at Votto’s numbers:
Situation
|
AB
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
OPS
|
Bases Empty
|
218
|
5
|
5
|
45
|
.326
|
.445
|
.936
|
Runners On
|
156
|
9
|
51
|
49
|
.353
|
.510
|
1.183
|
RISP
|
73
|
7
|
41
|
33
|
.370
|
.560
|
1.341
|
Bases Loaded
|
4
|
1
|
6
|
0
|
.500
|
.500
|
1.750
|
He bats an impressive .326 with the bases empty. .353 with
runners on. And .370 with RISP! All better than AL MVP and Triple Crown winner
Miquel Cabrera.
In fact, look at how Votto stacks up against the top hitters
(and recent MVPs) in both leagues:
Situation: Bases
Empty Situation: Runners On
AVG
|
OBP
|
OPS
|
|
Joey Votto
|
.326
|
.445
|
.936
|
Miquel Cabrera
|
.320
|
.382
|
1.004
|
Ryan Braun
|
.311
|
.367
|
.954
|
Albert Pujols
|
.269
|
.307
|
..810
|
Josh Hamilton
|
.267
|
.327
|
..864
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
OPS
|
|
Joey Votto
|
.353
|
.510
|
1.183
|
Miquel Cabrera
|
.340
|
.405
|
.993
|
Ryan Braun
|
.331
|
.422
|
1.029
|
Josh Hamilton
|
.308
|
.386
|
1.014
|
Albert Pujols
|
.304
|
.384
|
.915
|
Situation: RISP Situation: Bases Loaded
AVG
|
OBP
|
OPS
|
|
Joey Votto
|
.370
|
.560
|
1.341
|
Miquel Cabrera
|
.356
|
.424
|
1.004
|
Ryan Braun
|
.307
|
.429
|
.962
|
Josh Hamilton
|
.296
|
.392
|
.925
|
Albert Pujols
|
.281
|
.383
|
.896
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
OPS
|
|
Joey Votto
|
.500
|
.500
|
1.750
|
Miquel Cabrera
|
.273
|
.267
|
.812
|
Josh Hamilton
|
.222
|
.273
|
.495
|
Albert Pujols
|
.200
|
.200
|
.400
|
Ryan Braun
|
.083
|
.143
|
.310
|
Sure, Votto’s numbers are a little deceiving because he only
had about 2/3 the ABs as the other candidates, but all of these numbers are
averages, and averages are averages, especially when you still have 374 ABs. Of
the 12 categories, Votto is #1 in 11 of the 12 (by the way, Cabrera won the
Triple Crown last year).
Not surprising - when you take a great hitter like Votto,
move the pitcher into the stretch and distract him with a runner, Votto gets
even better. Drew Stubbs failure to get on base rendered Votto less effective.
In 2012, 58% of Votto’s plate appearances came with the bases empty. That is
not good. For comparison, Cabrera and Hamilton were 1 and 2 in RBIs in MLB in
2012 with 139 and 128 respectively. Cabrera batted with the bases empty just
53% of the time, while Hamilton 56%. Chase Headley lead the NL with 115 RBIs.
He came to the plate with the bases empty just 54% of the time (Braun and
Pujols were at 57% and 55% respectively).
Enter Shin-Soo Choo. Choo gets on base (.373 OBP) and has
speed (21 SB). He gives the Reds their first legitimate lead-off hitter since……Deion
Sanders? Take a look at the numbers:
AB
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Stubbs
|
493
|
105
|
13
|
2
|
14
|
40
|
42
|
166
|
30
|
.213
|
.277
|
.333
|
.610
|
Choo
|
598
|
169
|
43
|
2
|
16
|
67
|
73
|
150
|
21
|
.283
|
.373
|
.441
|
.814
|
If Choo has a similar year, that means he will be on base
50-60 more times than Stubbs. That also means BP will be on base more (as he
also hits better with runners on). That means that Choo’s presence could mean
as many as 100+ extra base runners for Votto. Last year Votto knocked in 56% of
the runners in scoring position, meaning Choo’s presence could give Votto 30-50
more RBIs. And keep in mind, Choo’s numbers were put up despite being the best
hitter on his Cleveland team. The second best player in his lineup was Asdrubal
Cabrera (.273). The Reds feature 5 guys in there lineup who hit .273 or better
(BP, Votto, Ludwick, Hanigan, and Frazier), and Jay Bruce. Choo will see more
pitches to hit, and therefore, we should see Choo’s good numbers be even
better. Choo went 4-4 in a spring game this week. Yes, it was spring training,
but Stubbs has had 4 hits in a game exactly 1 time in his career (7/31/11
against SF). Choo had two 4 hit games last year alone.
What I don’t like about the deal:
That this deal (or one like it) didn’t happen prior to last
year.
What shocked me about the deal?
The amount of Reds fans that seem to be against it. I would
have traded Drew Stubbs for a box of baseballs and a fungo bat and considered it
a victory. To get Choo is a steal. Is he a 1 year player? Likely. But that is
because Billy Hamilton will likely be the lead-off man and CF in 2014 – again,
win for the Reds. Add a guy like Choo to a 97 win team and that is a big deal. Choo
had 27 more RBIs than Stubbs and likely will result in another 20-30 RBIs
between BP and Votto. Imagine what a 97 win team could do with 30-40 more runs?
You want to throw Stubbs defense at me? Is his defense as
good as Stubbs? I have not seen him play the field, but likely not. However, is
it 30-40 runs worse than Stubbs? I can assure you it isn’t. Stubbs WAR (Wins
Above Replacement) in 2012 was -0.2! WAR measures the value of the player
compared to a replacement minor league player (or bench player). That means the
Reds would have been better off with a minor leaguer! Whether you agree with
WAR and Sabermetrics, you can agree with me that 0.2 is bad. For comparison, Choo
was 3.1…and by the way, WAR takes defense into account.
Others don’t like it because the Reds gave up infield
prospect Didi Gregorious. Have you seen Gregorious play? If your answer is no,
you are excused from the argument to begin with. Keep in mind, Gregorious is a
prospect. Prospect means they have proven nothing at the major league level. Remember
how up in arms Reds fans were because the Reds gave up 2 pitching prospects for
an old third basemen named Scott Rolen? Reds fans were beside themselves.
Remember the pitchers names? No? Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart. Roenicke is
now a reliever for the Rockies and has a career 4.09 ERA (though he did have a
3.25 ERA in 2012 in 63 appearances). Stewart is a career 6.82 pitcher,
including a 22.24 ERA in 2 starts last year with Boston. So, 4 years later,
would you rather have had Rolen or Roenicke and Stewart? Gregorious has a great
glove and is a promising prospect, but he is a prospect nonetheless. A prospect
that hit .243 last year in AAA. Prospects are like businesses: way less than
50% succeed (remember: Willie Greene? Brandon Claussen? Brandon Larson? Austin
Kearns? – all top Reds prospects who did nothing). Also, were you planning on
replacing Cozart with Gregorious? Frazier? Phillips? If you are complaining
about trading Gregorious, I would ask you where was he going to play? And, if
he wasn’t going to play for 5 years, why keep him?
What will we be saying 5-10 years down the road on this deal?
Great trade. Even if Gregorious turns into Derek Jeter, this
is a good trade. The Reds are built to win now. Choo is a know asset that helps
now and fills a much needed hole (leadoff). Choo helps them win now. Gregorious
does not.
Chapman in the Rotation
I can’t wait. The outrage of some fans and “experts” on this
is typical of fans that want to complain about everything and reporters who
want to create a story rather than cover a story. Weigh the Pros vs the Cons:
Pros for having Chapman in the rotation (in no particular
order):
2) Ability to dominate a game, not just an inning – Closer is the most overrated position in baseball. What good is a closer if you don’t have the lead? Remember how bad we thought Coco Cordero was? For his career with the Reds, his save percentage was 86.2% (86% in 2011). Aroldis Chapman was far better right? He saved like 95% of his chances right? Wrong. 88.4%. Cordero blew one more game in 2011 than Chapman did in 2012 (both had 43 opportunities). That means the Reds would have won 96 games in 2012 rather than 97. They also would have been the 2 seed in the NL rather than the…2 seed. See my point? Sure Chapman was more dominant in his one inning than Cordero, but the numbers show they were both about as effective.
2a) Remember the dominant closer of the Braves in the 90’s or the fear of the
Phillies closer in the 2010 season? Sure you don’t. You remember their starting
rotations, not their closers.
3) Rotation, Rotation, Rotation! – What sounds better:Option 1:Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake (all righties) with Chapman as the closer Option 2: Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Bailey, Arroyo with Broxton closing The answer is option 2. If you need convincing, I give up.
4) Jonathan Broxton – Is he as good and dominant as Chapman? No. But, he is a good closer. 2.82 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 27 saves between KC and Cincinnati in 2012. 27 saves is more saves than 2 playoff teams closers (Oak and WS Champion SF). Who is a better replacement for Chapman: Broxton in the closer role? Or Leake in the rotation
5) Money – Like it or not, money plays a role in these decisions. In 2010, the Reds signed Chapman for 6 years and $30.25 million. That sort of money on an unknown is only worth while on a starter, not a closer. Closers are luxuries. The Reds are not able to stay competitive with high priced closers.
6) Lefty in the rotation – When was the last lefty in the Reds rotation? More importantly, when is the last legitimate, let alone dominant lefty the Reds had in their rotation? Pete Schourek circa 1995?
7) Making the right decision, not the easy decision – Good organizations are good because they make the right decisions, not the easy decisions. Chapman was a very successful closer. Has the potential to be the best closer. Keeping him in that role would have been the easy decision. Moving him opens them up to criticism and failure. However, he can also be a dominant starter and Chapman is a starter and that’s what they brought him here to be. The Reds stuck to their guns and went against what the fans and “experts” were telling them to do.
8) Arm issues – Chapman has proven that he can lose his effectiveness and velocity when pitching multiple days in a row. Without his velocity, he is not the same pitcher. As a starter, he will throw less pitches (when you take into account warming up) and will allow his arm to rest 4 days between each appearance. As a closer, he may have 4 or 5 days without rest. When this happens, he has shown that he can suffer from shoulder fatigue. For a guy that throws as hard as Chapman, pitching multiple days in a row will always be an issue…an issue that is not present if he is a starter.
Cons of moving
Chapman to the rotation:
I don’t buy any of these, but here are the possibilities.
2) He can affect 60+ games rather than just 30 – A closer can affect more games than a starter. As a closer, Chapman could come in 60+ times. As a starter, he will only see 25-30 starts. Rebuttal: As a closer he only gets to affect games when the team is winning. A guy like Chapman can put them in a position to win more often than Mike Leake can.
3) He is not proven as a starter – This is actually false. See above. Rebuttal: He is more proven as a starter than he was a closer.
4) They will ruin his career – I would ask how? If simply putting him in the rotation ruins his career, he was never destined to be great then.
5) What if it fails? – Who cares? You will never know if you never try. If it fails, does that mean it was the wrong decision? Sure as hell doesn’t. Fear of failure is not a reason not to move him. If he proves he can’t start, he can always go back to the bullpen.
Reds fans will be debating these two offseason moves all
year, and rightfully so, but before we judge whether it was a success or
failure, let’s give it a chance to play out. I hope in October I get to come
back with the ultimate “I told you so!”
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