The Smoke is Clearing from the Free Agency Frenzy

 

 

The first 3 days of free agency are done. The shopping at Saks has ceased, and now the same name brand goods are showing up at TJ Maxx for 50-75% off. The perennial bottom dwellers of the NFL have finished blowing their money and now is when the good teams start signing. Laugh all you want that I am lumping Mike Brown in with this group, but look at his recent track record – he has figured out the way of a successful franchise is to build through the draft (and the Bengals have been solid in the draft the last 5+ years) and not overspend on free agents. Wait till the market comes down and you get solid players at a good deal…and we know no one likes a good deal like Mike likes a good deal!

P.S. – Look at the teams spending big money (Mia, Cle, Det, Phi, AZ, etc), most of these teams are, and will continue to be non-playoff teams -- for those of you wishing the Bengals were more like the Dolphins, take a look at this: the Dolphins have $35 million (or 28.5% of their cap) tied up in Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Dustin Keller, Dannell Ellerbe, and Philip Wheeler. That makes headlines. However, teams built around WRs, TEs, and LBs (and marginal ones at that) don’t win. Who will keep Tannehill up long enough to throw to any of these guys? And by the way, the cap hit on Mike Wallace in year 2 is $15 million!....or (based on 2012 numbers), a cool $17,942.58/yard, $234,375/catch, or $1.875 million per TD!!

Here is my analysis on the Bengals signings and other big signings around the league:

Player	New Team	Old  Team	Pos	Yrs	$	Age	Analysis
Wes Welker	Den	NE	WR	2	$12 M	31	Great signing. Great player for great value. Can you imagine Manning with Welker, Thomas, and Decker? Scary.
Cliff Avril	Sea	Det	DE	2	$15 M	26	Not a bad deal for a DE that has averaged 8 sacks a year. I like that this is only a 2 year deal
Mike Wallace	Mia	Pitt	WR	5	$60 M	26	Terrible signing. $12 M a year for a WR who can run 1 route (Go Route) and was 34th in the NFL in receiving yards in 2012 - plus, has attitude issues. In less than 5 minutes I rattled off the following 28 WRs, all of which I believe are better than Wallace (in no particular order):     1)      Calvin Johnson 2)      Andre Johnson 3)      AJ Green 4)      Brandon Marshall 5)      Demaryius Thomas 6)      Larry Fitzgerald 7)      Dez Bryant 8)      Reggie Wayne 9)      Wes Welker 10)   Roddy White 11)    Julio Jones 12)   Victor Cruz 13)   Eric Decker 14)   Greg Jennings 15)   Jordy Nelson 16)   Percy Harvin 17)   Marques Colston 18)   Steve Smith 19)   Michael Crabtree 20)   Brian Hartline 21)   Miles Austin 22)   Anquan Boldin 23)   Vincent Jackson 24)   Justin Blackmon 25)   Torrey Smith 26)   T.Y. Hilton 27)   Dwayne Bowe 28)   Antonio Brown                                                                                     Yet Wallace will get paid more than all but 2. Sounds like a good contract for 836 yards of production.
Dashon Goldson	TB	SF	S	5	$41 M	28	Good player, but too much money to spend on a safety. Bengals were right not to pay this.
Danny Amendola	NE	Stl	WR	5	$31 M	27	Good player, but too much money for a guy who can't stay healthy. Missed 20 games the past two years. 196 career catches -- that is 1.5 seasons for Welker.
Steven Jackson	Atl	Stl	RB	3	$12 M	29	I like Jackson. If he is 2/3 of his prior self, this will be a touch offens.]
Cullen Jenkins	NYG	Phi	DT	n/a	n/a	32	No word on the details, but not a bad signing…at least until we see how much
Connor Barwin	Phi	Hou	LB	6	$36 M	26	I like Barwin, but $6 M/year for a guy who had 3.0 sacks last year is a lot -- Wallace Gilberry had 6.5 in half the playing time, the Bengals signed him for $2.25 M/year
Glenn Dorsey	SF	KC	DT	2	n/a	27	Not sure of the dollar figure, but Dorsey could officially be labled a bust. #5 overall pick in2008, he had more sacks his senior year at LSU (7.0) than he has over his entire 5 year NFL career (4.0). If they can revive the college Dorsey, maybe a decent pickup worth the risk.
Laron Landry	Ind	NYJ	S	4	$24 M	28	Solid player, but still too much for a safety, especially one that is not a game changer (6 INTs and 5.5 sacks over 6 year career).
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie	Den	NYJ	CB	1	n/a	26	Don't like it. The guy may be talented, but I wouldn't trust him. Something to be said about a good 26 year old CB that is now on his 3rd team in 6 years in the league (apparently rotates teams as often as he rotates mothers of his children!). Probably why they only gave him 1 year.
Reggie Bush	Det	Mia	RB	4	$16 M	28	I like this signing. $4 M/year is a good deal for the Lions. This offense could be scary!
Jared Cook	Stl	Tenn	TE	5	$35 M	25	Terrible. Could go down as an all-time worst FA signing. $7 M/year for a guy with 8 total TDs over a 4 year career and has never had 800 yards.
Rashard Mendenhall	AZ	Pitt	RB	1	$2.5 M	25	I don't trust any man that believes the NFL is like slavery, has supportive tweets of Osama Bin Laden, and who doesn't believe planes took down the twin towers on 9/11. I most assuredly would not give said man $2.5 M.
Kenny Phillips	Phi	NYG	S	1	n/a	27	Not sure of the dollar figure, but a solid, not flashy, signing.
Shonn Greene	Tenn	NYJ	RB	3	$10 M	27	Shonn Greene, when not on a circus team like the Jets, could be a decent RB. Just not sure where he fits in with Chris Johnson on the roster.
Danell Ellerbe	Mia	Balt	LB	5	$35 M	27	Another terrible signing by Miami. $35 M for a career backup with 142 tackles over 4 years? Ellerbe played well when Lewis went down, but expect Ellerbe to be a cap casualty in 2-3 years.
Paul Kruger	Cle	Balt	LB	5	$40 M	27	Another bad signing potential cap casualty in 2-3 years. $8 M/year for a guy with 47 career tackles in a 4 year career. Sure he had a great year last year with 9.0 sacks, but he had 6.5 sacks total in the 3 years prior. I am always leary of guys with spikes in production during a contract year.
Robert Geathers	Cin	Cin	DE	3	$9.45 M	29	I didn't like this signing. Marvin and Zimmer seem to love him. The consumate pro, but his production does not match the money. Not a terrible deal, because the money is not a ton, but just doesn't make sense to me.
Plaxico Burress	Pitt	Pitt	WR	n/a	n/a	35	TBD. He will be 36 by the time the season starts, has attitude issues, and since 2007, he has been shot in the leg (1) and jailed (1) more times than he has had 1,000 yards receiving. Can still be a good red zone target though.
Philip Wheeler	Mia	Oak	LB	5	$26 M	28	Yet another terrible signing by the Dolphins. $5 M plus for a with 219 tackles and 5.0 sacks over a 5 year career? Smells like a 2-3 year salary cut again.
Josh Brown	NYG	Cin	K	n/a	n/a	33	Not sure of the money, but I like Josh Brown. In fact, I would have preferred him over Nugent
Wallace Gilberry	Cin	Cin	DE	3	$6.75 M	28	Sexy? No. But a solid signing.  Had 6.5 sacks (tied for 42nd in the NFL) as a back up! Tied with Jason Pierre Paul and more than: James Harrison, Osi Umenyiora, Will Smith, Lawrence Timmons, Dunlap, Dwight Freeney, etc. Figure out that sack to dollar ratio!
Mike Nugent	Cin	Cin	K	2	n/a	31	Solid signing. However, I would haver preferred bringing Brown back. Brown has a better leg, has been more clutch, and Nugent has injury issues seemingly every year.
Pat Sims	Cin	Oak	DT	n/a	n/a	27	Not sure of the numbers, but Sims is a solid player and great against the run. May be a coincidence, but since 2011, the Bengals are 11-4 when Sims played (thanks to CincyJungle.com). The knock on Sims is dedication and health. Both of which are likely why the Bengals were OK to let him go.
Clark Harris	Cin	Cin	LS	5	n/a	28	Laugh all you want that one of the Bengals first signings was a LS, but every team needs a good one. In terms of a LS, "good" is defined as not screwing up. So far, Harris hasn't screwed up (knock on wood).
Kevin Huber	Cin	Cin	P	5	n/a	27	Laugh all you want again that one of the Bengals first signings was a P, but Ps can change field position and like LS, every team needs a good one. Huber was top 5 in Net Avg and punts inside the 20.
Desmond Bryant	Cle	Oak	DT	5	$34 M	27	Not a bad signing, but it has to be a little concerning to give a guy nearly $7 M/yr when he was arrested just about 1 month ago - even though he doesn't have a history of issues.
Brian Hartline	Mia	Mia	WR	5	$31.75 M	26	Solid WR, but at $6 M+ a year, he is way overpaid for a guy with 1 TD last year. But hey, it's the Dolphins, they are apparently paying players with Monopoly money down there.
Dustin Keller	Mia	NYJ	TE	1	$4.5 M	28	Another poor signing by the Dolphins. Not poor because Keller is no good, but poor because they are overpaying an average TE coming off an injury riddled season. I think the Dolphins may have hired someone from Enron to control their cap.
Greg Jennings	Min	GB	WR	5	$47.5 M	29	I like Greg Jennings and I think this is a good pickup for the Vikings. However, he is a 5’11” WR who will turn 30 when the season starts and is coming off an injury plagued season. Let’s also not forget, any WR looks good with Rodgers throwing to them (look at the no names who filled in and had big games). For Bengals fans that wanted Jennings, would you pay $9M+ for a 30 year old 5’11” WR coming off injuries? I sure wouldn’t and I am glad Mike Brown wouldn’t either.
Brandon Gibson	Mia	Stl	WR	n/a	n/a	26	Have the Dolphins figured out a way to start more WRs than the other teams in the NFL? Is he better than Bess? What is the point of this signing? Meanwhile, Jake Long remains unsigned?
Adrian Wilson	AZ	NE	S	3		33	Not sure of the money yet, but he is a good S and one I would have liked the Bengals to sign…for the right price. Price is key to signing Wilson because he is 33. Even with signing Wilson, the Bengals would be in need of a younger S.