How Bad is the Reds Offense?

There is an exception to all rules. In baseball, good pitching beats good hitting…except when the team with good pitching is so comically bad offensively. That describes the Reds of late. How bad has the Reds offense been of late (and 2013 in general)?

In the last 11 games, the Reds have given up an average of 2.64 runs/game. They are 4-7 in that stretch. Here are the numbers in that stretch:

Win / Loss	Runs	Base Runners	LOB	RISP	Decision for Reds SP	Opp. Pitcher threw (R/L)	ERA of Pitcher faced	Pitcher
L	2	10	6	0-3	L	L	2.15	Locke
W	11	18	6	5-14	W	R	4.61	Lincecum
W	9	15	6	5-8	W	L	Rookie	Surkamp
L	3	14	14	1-14	NK	L	4.92	Zito
W	8	19	10	4-14	W	R	2.77	Gaudin
W	5	12	6	3-8	W	R	3.43	Greinke
L	1	6	4	1-9	L	L	1.96	Kershaw
L	1	3	2	0-3	L	L	3.14	Ryu
L/11	0	5	5	0-6	ND	L	4.54	Capuano
L	1	12	10	0-5	ND	R	3.72	O'Sullivan
L	2	11	8	3-7	ND	R	5.56	Volquez
4-7	43	125	77	22-91

 

Avg Runs Scored/game by Reds:	3.91
Runs in L:	10
Avg Runs in L:	1.42
Runs in W:	33
Avg Runs in W:	8.25
Avg Base Runners (ABR) :	11.36
ABR in L:	8.7143
ABR in W:	16
% of BR reaching scoring position in L:	0.770
% of BR reaching scoring position in W:	0.6875
Avg w/ RISP:	0.242
RISP in L:	47
Avg w/ RISP in L:	0.085	4-47
RISP in W:	44
Avg w/ RISP in W:	0.386	17-44
Reds Runs against:	29
Reds Avg Runs Against:	2.64
Reds Starting Pitchers:	4W - 3L - 4 ND
vs Lefty	1-5	Only W vs a Rookie making his 1st start
vs Righty	3-2
Avg ERA of Opposing P:	3.68	Does not include Surkamp
Avg ERA of Opp P in L:	3.71
Avg ERA of Opp P in W:	3.60
Reds record when scoring 4+ runs:		49-13 (4 losses were in extra innings)
Reds Avg runs/game:	4.31

 

They have not gotten on base a lot of late, but they have gotten on enough (nearly 9 runners/game) given the pitching they are getting.

 

The Reds are currently the 2^nd wildcard in the NL despite these staggering pitching numbers:

Pitching		MLB Rank	NL Rank
WHIP	1.18	T-1st	T-1st
ERA	3.33	2	2
QS	66	T-2nd	T-1st
IP	976.1	1	1
ER	361	4	4
Batting Avg Against (BAA)	0.237	3	2
K	882	3	1
K/BB	3.03	3	1
K/9	8.13	5	2

 

On the surface, their hitting doesn’t look too bad:

Hitting		MLB Rank	NL Rank
Runs	466	12	3
OBP	0.327	8	3
Runs/game	4.31
RBI	445	12	4
Avg	0.250	18	9
HR	102	15	5
OPS	0.721	13	5

 

 

These numbers are deceiving though. The Reds runs come in bunches and that skews the holes in this offense.

 

The Magic of 4

The Reds rank 3^rd in the NL in runs scored, averaging 4.31/game, however, 49 times this year (45%), the Reds have scored 3 runs or less. 4 runs is the magic number for this team. 4 runs should not be a problem for this offense, yet it is:

When the Reds score 4+ runs, they are 49-13 (.790 W%) – 4 of those losses are in extra innings

Had the Reds scored just 4 runs in each of their last 11 games (they averaged 3.9), they would have gone 8-1 with 2 ties. Instead, they went 4-7.

In their last 11 games, the Reds scored 43 runs – not unforgiveable

33 of those runs came in the 4 wins; 10 in the 7 losses – which is unforgiveable.

 

What are they to do? Well, based on what they did today (or didn’t do at the trade deadline), nothing. If they are waiting for injured players to come back, I wouldn’t count on it helping:

Sure getting Marshall, Broxton, and Cueto back would be great, but pitching isn’t their problem (see above), hitting is. And, if they are counting on Ludwick, I don’t think that is wise either. He is 35 years old coming off a labrum tear, therefore, expecting the Ludwick from 2012 is setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

RISP

Here are the Reds players averages as a whole, and averages with RISP. Not good.

Avg		Avg w/ RISP
0.283	Choo	0.238
0.238	Cozart	0.177
0.317	Votto	0.287
0.256	Phillips	0.389
0.279	Bruce	0.258
0.243	Frazier	0.269
0.251	Mesaraco	0.262
0.215	Heisey	0.222
0.261	Robinson	0.214
0.240	Paul	0.264