Quarter Back:
2013 saw both Rivers and Dalton put up very good numbers,
however, Rivers was more consistent and protected the ball much better than
Dalton. In their week 12 matchup, Dalton was coming off a few poor games and
didn’t play particularly well in the Bengals win. That is not the case this
week. Despite his 4 INTs in week 17, Dalton is playing much better and his
numbers at home are much better than on the road. Dalton’s completion
percentage is 3 points higher at home, his rating 10 points higher and going
into week 17, he had 18 TD to just 5 INTs at home (still ended the year at an
impressive 20/9). And, while we all know Dalton’s struggles in the playoffs
(0-2, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 56.9% completion, 48.6 rating, 5.33 YPA and 192 YPG),
facing the #2 (2011) and #7 (2012) ranked Texans defense on the road as a
rookie and 2nd year pro is significantly different than the 23rd
ranked Chargers defense he will face on Sunday at PBS. As for Rivers’ playoff
history, he hasn’t exactly lit it up either. In 7 career playoff games, Rivers
is 3-4 (2-2 at home, 1-2 on the road), 260 YPG average, 58.5% completion, 8 TD,
9 INTs and a 79.2 rating. Better than Dalton, but not great. Of note, twice San
Diego had a bye and then lost their first game, and while Rivers is 2-0 in the
Wild Card round, he has just 1 TD and 2 INTs in those 2 games. Until Dalton proves he can win in the
playoffs, a QB like Rivers is always going to have the advantage over him.
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Advantage: Chargers
Offensive Line:
This is a close one. When it comes to protecting the quarter
back, both lines do a very good job. The Bengals are 3rd in the NFL
and have allowed just 29 sacks, while the Chargers are 4th with
surrendering just one more (30). It should be noted that in the last 6 games,
the Bengals line has surrendered just 3 sacks and have held the opponent to 0
sacks in 4 of those games (including 0 sacks and 0 QB hits in their week 12
matchup with SD). However, the run game is why I give the Chargers the edge. While
they only average 13 more YPG (122.8 to 109.7), the Chargers running game has
improved of late. In the month of December, Ryan Mathews led all running backs
with 534 yards. Though I don’t see this as a huge advantage, the Chargers are
more consistent across the board and the 2 game stretch where the Bengals gave
up 10 sacks (Mia and Balt) is still very fresh in my mind.
Advantage: Chargers
Running Backs:
As mentioned above, Mathews leads the NFL with 534 rushing
yards in the month of December and has three 100 yard games and 3 TDs in
December as well. Lucky for the Bengals 1) it is no longer December, 2) 4 of
the 5 games were in SD, 3) 4 of the 5 games were against terrible defenses
(Oak, NYG, Den, KC) and 4) his lowest total of the month (61) came against the
Bengals. Along with Mathews, the Chargers also have Woodhead who lead all
running backs with 76 receptions. Between Mathews and Woodhead, the Chargers
backfield has accounted for nearly 2,500 all-purpose yards and 15 TDs. While
the Bengals also have a pretty serviceable duo of their own, the Bengals duo
averages .6 YPC less than the Chargers duo and they trail the Chargers duo by
more than 500 all-purpose yards. I don’t see this as a big edge, but I give the
Chargers a slight edge here.
Advantage: Chargers
Wide Receivers:
The Chargers have some talented wide receivers. Keenan Allen
had a great season (71 rec, 1,046 yds, 8 TDs), is my pick for the offensive ROY
and will be a handful for the Bengals secondary (8 for 106 in their first
meeting). Eddie Royal had a good year (47 rec, 631 yds, 8 TDs) and is a nice
compliment to Allen. With that being said, the Chargers receivers are not on
the level of the Bengals receivers in talent, size or quantity. The Chargers
did a good job on Green and company in San Diego, but I wouldn’t expect the
same in Cincinnati. With Hawkins back and contributing, the Chargers will find
it necessary to cover 4 talented receivers…along with 2 big tight ends and a
speedy back. I expect the Bengals receivers to expose a weak Chargers
secondary.
Advantage: Bengals
Tight Ends:
Giving the Bengals the edge here may seem odd when looking
at the numbers, but hear me out. While Antonio Gates will go down as one of the
best tight ends in NFL history and he is still effective (77 rec, 872 yds, 4
TDs), he is 33 years old, has suffered a number of leg injuries and clearly is
not the player he once was. The once game-changing tight end is now big and
slow and has to rely on veteran savviness to get open and is certainly capable
of being covered by line backers and safeties. In their first matchup, the
Bengals held Gates to 5 rec for 41 yards, forced him to fumble and took an
interception from him. While Ladarius Green is a big TE that had some success
against the Bengals (2 rec, 45 yds, 1 TD), he had just 1 catch in the 4 games
since. The Bengals on the other hand, feature 2 tight ends both capable of
creating matchup issues for line backers and safeties, and while Gates numbers
alone nearly match those of the Bengals 2 tight ends combined (85 receptions, 906
yards, 6 TDs), 1 slow 6’4” tight end is much easier to cover than 2 young fast
6’6” tight ends…especially when you also have to worry about covering Green,
Jones and Bernard as well. In their first matchup, the Bengals barely used
their TE’s at all (1 rec, 9 yds, 3 targets), I wouldn’t expect the same in
Cincinnati.
Advantage: Bengals
Defensive Line:
Like many of the teams the Bengals face in the AFC North,
the Chargers go with a base 3-4 defense. However, unlike the 3-4 defenses the
Bengals see in AFC North, the Chargers 3-4 defense is nowhere near as effective.
The Chargers come into PBS with the 23rd ranked defense 29th
against the pass and 12th against the run. That is music to the Bengals ears. The
Chargers have only 12.5 sacks and 1 forced fumble from their DL. The Bengals,
on the other hand, are ranked 3rd overall on defense, 5th
against the pass and 5th against the run. The strength of the
Bengals defense is their line, where even without Atkins, the Bengals rank 10th
in sacks (43) and have gotten 23 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and 18 passes defensed
by their line.
Advantage: Bengals
Line Backers:
The lack of play makers on the Chargers defense is really
apparent at the linebacker position. The Chargers top 6 LBs have 239 tackles…or
just 68 more than Burfict alone. The Bengals top 4 LBs have 334 tackles and
should be able to match up well against SDs TEs. The danger for the Bengals is
getting a LB (especially Maualuga) matched up against Woodhead. The Chargers,
however, have to worry about their LBs matched up against the Bengals TEs, as
well as Hawkins, Bernard or Sanu. When it boils down to it, the Chargers have
an underwhelming line backing corps. The Bengals have the NFL’s leading tackler
(Burfict), a former Defensive POY (Harrison) and two guys (Maualuga and Rey)
that have had pretty good 2013 campaigns.
Advantage: Bengals
Corner Backs:
The Bengals may get Newman back on Sunday, but even if they
do not, Kirkpatrick and Jones have been holding down the fort pretty well. In
their first meeting, Kirkpatrick was just getting his feet wet (but did have a
nice pick), but after a few rough games, he has been settling in. The Bengals
pass defense has actually improved since they last met the Chargers and should
matchup well with the Charger receivers. While the Chargers have dropped a spot
in the rankings since they last met (28th to 29th), they
have improved in yardage by 18 YPG. Just like at DL and LB, the Chargers have
no play makers at the corner back position either. The Chargers 5 CBs have
account for 3 INTs as a group…Jones and Kirkpatrick each have 3 and Kirkpatrick
has only played about 4 games. If the Chargers load the box to stop the run (as
many think they will), it will leave at least one of Chargers corners on an
island with one of the Bengals receivers. That is a scary thought if you are a
Chargers fan. Green, Jones, Sanu, Hawkins, Bernard, Gresham and Eifert
certainly present a lot of issues for a weak Chargers secondary.
Advantage: Bengals
Safeties:
The leading tackler on the Chargers is Eric Weddle and 3rd
on the team is Marcus Gilchrist. While I like Weddle, it is a bad thing when
your leading tackler, and 2 of your top 3, are safeties. Weddle and Gilchrist
have accounted for an astonishing 230 tackles, nearly 100 more than Nelson and
Iloka (137). Despite having 93 more tackles, the Bengals safeties have forced 1
more fumble (3-2), and have just .5 less sacks. When it comes to plays in the
coverage game, the Bengals safeties have them beat in INTs (5-4), passes
defensed (21-18) and TDs (1-0). Nelson and Iloka have been very solid this year
(a pleasant surprise) and actually have been a strength of the Bengal’s 2013
defense. The Chargers safeties could also find themselves at a big disadvantage
if matched up in coverage – Weddle and Gilchrist stand 5’11” and 5’10”
respectively and could find themselves covering Green (6’4”), Gresham (6’5”),
Eifert (6’6”), Sanu (6’2”) or Jones (6’2”). With Iloka at 6’4”, the Bengals do
not have the same matchup issues at safety that the Chargers face.
Advantage: Bengals
Kicker:
Nick Novak is one of the better kickers in the league (9th)
and is 34/37 (91.9%). Mike Nugent is an uninspiring 18/22 (81.8%). If you want
to look for one possible advantage Nugent may have, he is experienced kicking
in the cold and rain. Otherwise, the advantage here is all Nugent
Advantage: Chargers
Coach:
In the regular season game, I gave Marvin the advantage. I
just can’t do the same in the playoffs. McCoy may be a rookie coach and never
coached in the playoffs, but I would argue at 0-4, Marvin has never coached in
the playoffs either and continues to look like a rookie on the sidelines in
playoff games. While Marvin has the experience, I am not sure it is too his
advantage here. The 0-4 record has to weigh heavy on Marvin’s mind and will
make him feel a lot more pressure than McCoy. On top of that, Marvin’s team
entered the season with possible Super Bowl expectations and disappointing
would not begin to describe the feeling of a loss in this game. McCoy and the
Chargers were not picked my many (if any) to even sniff the playoffs, so they
have to feel like they are playing with house money. Having an experience QB
who is completing 70% of his passes feeling as though he is playing with house
money has to be advantageous for McCoy. Until Marvin wins a playoff game, I
can’t give him the advantage in January. However, I am also not going to give
the advantage to a 9-7 rookie head coach either.
Advantage: Push
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