The Correlation of Joey Votto’s Power Numbers and Reds Wins

 

As I suspected, I touched Superman’s cape and Reds fans lost their collective minds. Days after posting my ‘somewhat’ scathing article of the Mashing Mountie, I spent a few days in the Music City with some of the most avid 12oz Pro-Spective readers and I received endless tongue lashings for my opinion on Votto. However, like most who read the article, they missed my point:

I do not dislike Joey Votto (as has been reported) – Quite the opposite. I love Joey Votto. I think he is the best player in baseball and would not want anyone else on my team.

I also do not think Votto was sucking, nor was I underestimating his record setting OBP pace – My point was simply this: the success of this Reds team parallels the power numbers and RBIs of Joey Votto, and, in order to have the success Reds fans want – to win in the playoffs, not just get there – the Reds need Votto to do more than simply “get on base.” Don’t get me wrong, I love sabermetrics and few like walks and singles as much as me, however, Votto needs to produce doubles, HRs, and RBIs in volume for this team to win.

 In May, Votto has proven my point for me. Take a look at the numbers:

Prior to May
	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
	103	17	30	3	4	11	26	29	0.439	0.456	0.896	0.291
April Record: 15-13
May
	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
	73	21	33	7	3	22	15	10	0.551	0.671	1.222	0.452
May Record: 14-5
Since the 12oz article (5/14 - 8 games)
	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
	30	11	16	2	3	6	8	3	0.632	0.900	1.532	0.533
Record since article: 6-2

 

This proves 3 things:

First, and most importantly, I was correct. Coincidence that in May Votto has twice as many doubles (7-3), about the same HRs (3-4), as many RBIs (11), 1/3 of the strikeouts (10-29), and less walks (15-26) in 30 less ABs than he did in April, and the Reds win percentage went from .530 in April to .730 in May? I think not. (Let’s also not forget, the record in May and since the article ran would be 15-4 and 7-1 respectively if Chapman could lay off the pastries!) Votto’s OBP was only up 8 percentage points in May, so why have the Reds gone 14-5 in May and just 15-13 in April? Votto started driving the ball, driving in runs, walking and striking out less.

Second, Joey Votto is a reader of the 12oz Pro-Spective and was inspired/infuriated by my piece last week.

And third, I am responsible for Votto’s increase in production and therefore, the Reds increase in win totals. You are welcome Reds fans.

Oh yeah, by the way, the Reds went 7-2 on the road trip…that is pretty good.

 

Next up, I will insult Aroldis Chapman and he will never blow a save again!