Wednesday, May 15, 2013

What is wrong with Joey Votto?


I can hear the backlash already at the mere suggestion that Superman Joey Votto is underperforming. Take note, I am not saying Joey Votto is playing bad, I am saying that he is underperforming and not playing up to the standards that Joey Votto has built for himself (numbers as of Tuesday 5/14):
 

The Performing:
1st in MLB in walks (34)

2nd in MLB in OBP (.457) – 2nd only to Shin-Soo Choo
Top 15 in Batting Average (.327 – 13th)

 
The Underperforming:

Tied for 94th in RBI (17)
63rd in Slugging (.465)

Lowest Slugging % of his career and 83 points below his career average.
Tied for 88th in HR (tied with 33 others – including Yonder Alonso)

Tied for 81st in Doubles (8 – tied with Drew Stubbs)
Tied for 36th in strikeouts (37 – only 4 less than Drew Stubbs)

1.8 WAR for those of you Sabermetrics people
.263 average with runners on base

 
Let’s address these one-by-one:


Walks

Leading the league in walks is great. However, if no one is able to drive him in (or the players on base in front of him), the walk is not very useful. Not necessarily Votto’s fault, but the truth.


OBP

See Walks. I like OBP as much as anyone, but I need run production coming from my 3 hitter and my franchise position player.


Average

See walks and OBP.


 RBI

Votto is tied for 94th in RBI (17) – 2 less than the .207 hitting RBI Machine Zack Cozart, tied with Dustin Pedroia (he of a .207 avg) and 2 less than his leadoff hitter, Shin-Soo Choo. He is on pace for 69 RBI, his lowest total since his first full season (2008 - 59). Last season, Votto had 56 in just 111 games.


 Slugging Percentage


Votto is 58th in Slugging (.473, which is less than his leadoff hitter Shin-Soo Choo), his lowest Slugging % of his career, and 75 points below his career average. This is a result of his HRs and 2Bs being down.

 HR

Votto has only 4 HRs in 2013 and 121 players have more, or the same amount of HRs as Joey Votto (tied for 88th with 33 others – including Yonder Alonso). Including last year and the playoffs, Votto has 4 HRs over his last 85 games! He has less than half the HRs of his own leadoff hitter (Choo – 9….maybe Votto should leadoff and Choo bat third?). For those of you that want to say Votto is not a “HR Hitter,” you are correct in some regard…Votto is not a pure HR hitter – he is a power hitter – he has a compact swing that produces a lot of 2Bs and in turn, a lot of HRs as well. This is a guy that, when healthy, has never hit less than 24 HRs in a season; and in his last 2 healthy seasons (2010 and 2011) had 37 and 29 HRs respectively. Say what you want, but that is a HR hitter my friends – a HR hitter that is on pace for 16 HRs after 25% of the season. For more than half a year now, he has stuggled mightily to hit HRs. That is a concern.

 

2B

Tied for 81st in Doubles (8 – 1 less than Drew Stubbs and Votto has 19 more ABs). This is the most concerning to me. Votto is a doubles machine. Prior to his injury last year, Votto was on pace to set the Major League record for most 2Bs in a season. Fast forward one year and 100 players have as many or more 2Bs than Joey Votto…including Drew Stubbs (Basic rule of thumb, if Stubbs is beating you in anything but a foot race or strikeouts, that ain’t good).

 

Strikeouts

Tied for 36th in strikeouts (37 – only 4 less than Drew Stubbs) and on pace for 150 strikeouts. This is actually more disturbing than the doubles numbers. Votto has never been a high strikeout guy. In the years when he hit 37 and 29 HRs respectively, he struck out 129 and 125 times. He is on pace for 20% more strikeouts and about half the HRs. That is concerning. Most concerning is how he looks on some of the strikeouts. At times he looks lost and looks as if he is just flipping the bat at the ball. One thing Votto always gave you was good ABs and was never an easy out. He has had more poor ABs this year already than I can remember in his last 2 years combined.


WAR

If you are into Sabermetrics, his WAR is 1.8. That means Votto is giving this team 1.8 more wins over a 162 game season than the average first baseman would. Like Sabermetrics or not, Votto is better than that. For comparison, his WAR in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were 6.7, 6.2, and 5.6 respectively. Meaning his WAR is 3-4 times lower than it has been the last 3 years.


Average with Runners On Base

The last 3 years, Votto has seemed almost automatic with runners on. An RBI machine. This production is what earned him the highest contract in MLB, not his OBP or walk totals. This year Votto is hitting .263 with runners on base – from 2010-2012 he hit .357 with runners on…down 94 points!

 
 
Here’s the point. If I were to give you the numbers alone, and not give you the name, you would say “that is a very good player!” Great OBP, probably a good leadoff guy. The problem is, Votto is not just a very good player. This is a guy that has chased a Triple Crown. This is a league MVP. This is a guy with a $250M+ contract from a small market. He is paid to be great not good. Like it or not, his contract demands that of him. Don’t get me wrong, Votto earned his contract, but he did so by driving in runs, hitting HRs, producing with runners on, not  by simply walking and hitting singles. Walks, singles, and OBP are great…but they don’t get you the largest contract in the majors. “To whom much is given, much is expected.” Votto is paid $25M+ per year. That contract is what it is because of his ability to produce runs, not to just get on base. The good news is that it is only May, Votto seems to be zoning in the last few games, and despite his low power numbers, the Reds have the 2nd best record in the NL. The bad news is that this power outage is no small sample size. This has been the case now for the last 85 games and 25% of the 2013 season is in the books. This team can make the playoffs with these number from Votto. The goal however, is not to make the playoffs, it is to make a deep run in the playoffs. Lest we not forget what happened in the 2012 playoffs with the power zapped Votto. This team cannot go deep in the playoffs with Votto simply getting on base. To make noise in the playoffs, this team needs Joey Votto to be hitting with the power of Joey Votto.
 

 Yes, I just pulled on Superman's cape.

 

 

 

 

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