Quarterback:
Brady is not having a “Brady” year (58.9% completion and,
87.4 rating and just 7 TDs), but he is still hands down better than Dalton.
Brady’s numbers are down because he lost every receiving weapon from last year.
Dalton’s numbers are inflated because of the weapons he has. If you were to
give Brady Dalton’s weapons, the Patriots would be averaging 40+ ppg – give
Dalton Brady’s weapons and I shiver at the thought… maybe 10 ppg? Either way,
much like the Green Bay game, the Bengals won’t be able to shut Brady down,
they need to just contain his running game, make the Patriots one-dimensional,
and then slow Brady down. Sounds easy, I just don’t know if Zimmer’s men can do
it.
Advantage: Patriots
Running Backs:
In yards per game (ypg), the Patriots are 11th (125.0)
and the Bengals 22nd (83.8). However, in terms of this Sunday, these
stats are misleading – 275 (55%) of the Patriots 500 yards are on the bench
with injuries (Ridley and Vareen) and another 10% are wrapped up in one outlier
(Blount’s 47 yard TD run), leaving a true perspective in what the Bengals will
be facing Sunday. Without Ridley, Vareen and Blount’s long run, the RBs that
will be playing on Sunday (Bolden and Blount) have a total of 175 yards and
just 42 carries. The Bengals have 4 TDs from their backs actually playing (0
for NE) and despite BJGE’s current struggles, the Bengals clearly have the more
dynamic backs. With his ability to make things happen in the run game as well
as the pass game, Bernard offers an element the Patriots do not have and an
element the Patriots will have difficulties defending. With Wilfork out, look
for the Bengals to finally use a balanced attack and look for the Bengals RBs
to have a lot of success.
Advantage: Bengals
Wide Receivers:
The Bengals clearly have the best WR (Green), and even if
you assume Amendola is 100% (he is not), I believe the Bengals have the better
group of WRs as well. If Amendola does not play Sunday (and right now it looks
50-50), Brady’s top 3 WRs will have 129 career receptions (103 of which are Edelman).
AJ Green alone has 188. Edelman is a great slot and possession receiver, and
while I like Thompkins potential, he is still a rookie with just 4 games and 15
catches under his belt (though he does have 3 TDs). Either way, if you were to
ask Brady if he would rather his WRs or Green, Sanu and Jones, he would pick
the latter – therefore, so will I.
Advantage: Bengals
Tight Ends:
If Gronkowski was playing, there may be a debate to be had.
He is not. Instead, the Patriots will be using a guy named Michael Hoomanawanui
(28 career receptions). Michael HoomannotasgoodasGreshamandEifert. The Bengals
have a huge advantage at the TE position.
Advantage: Bengals
O-Line:
This one is debatable. Both lines have given up just 7 sacks
and the Patriots have blocked for a more successful running attack so far, but I
am giving the advantage to the Bengals line. The Bengals 7 sacks have a lot to
do with Dalton holding the ball too long. Brady gets the ball out quick, so his
7 sacks are more on his line than him.
Advantage: Bengals
D-Line:
Again, both teams have 9 sacks, but the Bengals definitely
have the better DL. The Bengals need to make sure to shut down Chandler Jones
and his 3 sacks. The Patriots have to focus on Atkins, Johnson, Dunlap and
Peko.
Advantage: Bengals
Line Backers:
The Patriots have better LBs across the board with Mayo,
Spikes and Hightower. Maualuga is playing better and Burfict is a stud, but the
Patriots LBs are more solid across the board.
Advantage: Patriots
Corner Backs:
This is a toss-up. If the Bengals were healthy, the Bengals
would clearly have the advantage. Talib and Dennard are good CBs and with the
Bengals injuries in the secondary, these two secondarys are pretty even.
Advantage: Push
Safeties:
Another rare situation where the Bengals have the Safety
advantage (assuming Nelson plays). If the Bengals OL can give Dalton time, the
Bengals WRs and TEs should be able to take advantage of the Patriots safeties.
Advantage: Bengals
Kickers:
Both kickers are good, but Gostowski gets the nod mainly
because of his ability to kick 50+ yard field goals.
Advantage: Patriots
Coaches:
It is embarrassing that I even have this in here this week.
Belichick > Lewis.
Advantage: Patriots
Prediction:
With the injuries and free agent losses the Patriots have
had, I think they are ripe for the picking (despite their 4-0 record). I think
the Bengals matchup well against the Patriots and believe the home field
advantage will be the difference.
Bengals 27, Patriots 24
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