When Halloween falls on a Thursday night, I think it is only
appropriate that the Bengals play on Thursday Night Football. In between
stuffing your face full of “ever shrinking sized candy bars”, here is what to
look for….
When the Dolphins
Run the Ball:
Despite having 2 capable backs (Miller and Thomas), one of
which averaging 4.5 ypc (Miller), the Dolphins are in the bottom 10 (23rd)
averaging just 89.1 ypg. The reason? The Dolphins run the ball just 34% of the
time. Only 3 teams run the ball less. Whether it is because of scheme,
philosophy, the line, or a lack of confidence in the young backs, the Dolphins
clearly do not have a commitment to the run, thereby putting a lot of pressure
on their 2nd year QB. However, despite the fact that the Bengals are
8th in the NFL stopping the run (97.3 ypg), look for the Dolphins to
run the ball more than normal tonight. Why? To protect Tannehill from the
Bengals pass rushers. Tannehill has been sacked 32 times in just 7 games, has
been sacked 4+ times in 6 of the Dolphins 7 games, and is on pace to be sacked
73 times in 2013! To make matters worse, the Dolphins have issues with their
line that go beyond the field (see below). Overall, the Dolphins can commit to
the run all they want tonight, I don’t see it working.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Dolphins
Throw the Ball:
Can the Dolphins OL give Tannehill time to take advantage of
a vulnerable secondary and LB situation? That is the question. With Hall and
Mays out for the year, and Maualuga and Boley out for at least this game, the
Bengals are vulnerable in pass coverage, especially when matching up against a
TE. The problem for the Dolphins is that they only have 1 TE available for this
game (3rd year man Charles Clay) and he will likely be needed to
help the Dolphins terrible line protect Tannehill. Despite Tannhehill’s recent
struggles, and they are bad (54.5% comp, 7 TDs, 7 INTs during their 4 game
losing streak), if he is given time by his line, he can still take advantage of
the Bengals in coverage. However, good thing for the Bengals, there may not be
a team in the league less capable of exposing this weakness than the week 9
Dolphins squat. With a LT that has been with the team just 10 days, a backup RT
(Clabo) starting (because of Martin going AWOL), and a center that was just
subpoenaed for the Aaron Hernandez saga 4 days ago, to say the Dolphins line is
in disarray may be an understatement (hence why I expect more run plays than
their average). The Bengals DL is likely licking their chops at this matchup.
If Clay has to stay in to block, that is a double win for the Bengals pass
defense.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Run the Ball:
Though the Bengals have a stronger commitment to the run
(43% run plays – 12th), they aren’t necessarily having success. The
Bengals rank just 19th in rushing ypg and BJGE and Bernard are
averaging just 3.1 and 3.9 ypc respectively. Fortunately for the Bengals run
game, the Dolphins are equally unsuccessful at stopping the run (19th
– 109.9 ypg) and the Bengals use the run more as a way to simply keep the
defense honest. Huge success in the run
game is not paramount for the Bengals, but some success is necessary to keep
the defense honest and open up the field for the passing game.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Throw the Ball:
Dalton’s recent hot streak has seen the Bengals passing game
climb to 7th overall (269.9 ypg) and Dalton now is 4th in
the league in yards and TDs. With a Miami defense ranked just 20th
against the pass and no secondary players that can matchup 1-on-1 with Green
(or maybe even Jones), Dalton will get plenty of favorable matchups. Jones
showed teams last week what can happen if they focus on just Green. Look for
plenty of opportunities for the Bengals TEs, RBs and Hawkins (hot off the IR). As
long as the Bengals can keep the Dolphins off of Dalton, and all indications
are they can (8th in the NFL allowing a sack on only 5.42% of drop
backs), he should be able to continue his hot streak.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaching:
Call
the Press! I am taking Lewis again. Philbin seems like a good guy, but I have
never been impressed with him as a HC and was surprised he was the Dolphins
choice. Lewis, on the other hand, is on some sort of a role this year. It seems
as though he has finally figured out this whole challenge flag thing and
started to play call more aggressively.
Key to the Game:
The key to the game is clearly going to be the ability of
the Dolphins OL to keep the Bengals DL off of Tannehill. If Tannehill gets
time, the Bengals are vulnerable in coverage. If Tannehill cannot get time, it
will be a long night for the Dolphins. After being outscored 24-0 by a far
inferior Patriots offense and surrendering 6 sacks (with Martin) to a far inferior
Patriots DL, I don’t see that happening.
Prediction:
Given the recent struggles of the Dolphins and plethora of
on and off field issues with their already poor OL, I just don’t see how this
one stays close.
Bengals 34, Dolphins 13
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