I am 31 years old. I have grown up a Cincinnati Bengals fan my
entire life. Despite being 9 years old the last time the Bengals won a playoff
game, I cannot remember that victory. Therefore I do not remember the last time
the Bengals won a playoff game (though I can remember the loss in Super Bowl
XXIII and the loss to the LA Raiders in 1990?). That is sad. Just as sad is the
fact that there is a whole generation of Bengals fans (even fans of legal
drinking age) that were not born the last time the Bengals won a playoff game. Since
that day the Bengals have been to the playoffs 3 times. Today will be their 4th.
2012 will be the first time the Bengals enter the playoffs on a win and this team
also looks the most poised to win a playoff game out of any of their predecessors.
In 2005 (even before Palmer’s injury) the Bengals defense was embarrassing
(remember Ifeanyi Ohalete? I do). In 2009, that team was smoke and mirrors and was
drained emotionally due to the loss of Vickie Zimmer and Chris Henry. In
2011, the Bengals backed into the playoffs and were depleted with injuries
(Hall out, Green separated shoulder, Dunlap hurt, Crocker hurt, Livings was
healthy but counted as hurt, etc). This Bengals team enters the game relatively
healthy (the Crocker injury could hurt) and on a roll (7-1 in last 8) and it is
the Texans that come in banged up and stumbling in.
You will hear the stats all day: Bengals 0-5 in the playoffs
on the road; 21 years, 11 months, and 30 days since winning their last playoff
game; oh, by the way, that is 8,034 days (I’m sure they will
flash the price of milk and gas the last time the Bengals won a playoff game –
you heard it here first); 3 times the same teams have played back-to-back years
in the Wild Card game and in all 3, the same team that won the first game won
the second; Marvin Lewis 0-3 in the playoffs, etc. You know what all these
stats mean? Absolutely nothing. You know what means something? The Bengals
having won 7 of their last 8, giving up just 9 TDs in those 8 games and 12.8
ppg. You know what else means something? The Texans losing 3 of their last 4,
scoring 1 TD over the last 10 quarters, and giving up 26+ ppg over their last 7
games. You know what else means something? The Bengals are coming in hot and
fired up with making it as the final seed and the Texans being disappointed and
distraught over blowing their chance at not just a first round bye, but the
overall #1 seed. That disappointment cannot be over stated. Don’t forget the 6
seed has won the Super Bowl 3 of the last 7 years (2005 Steelers, 2006 Giants,
2010 Packers) and the Giants last year were 9-7 making it in on the last day.
Does that mean the Bengals will win it? No. But it does mean they have a shot.
The common denominator of all 4 of those teams were dominant front 7’s. The
Bengals have that. They also have a little history shedding run going. No back
to back playoffs in 30 years? Shattered. Can’t beat the Steelers or Ravens?
Shattered. Can’t beat playoff/playoff caliber teams? Shattered (Baltimore,
Washington, Pittsburgh, Giants). Will the playoff win drought get shattered as
well? I don’t know, but they have their best shot since January 1990 (when George
Bush was President, a gallon of gas was $1.16 and a gallon of milk was $2.78….BOOM!).
When the Texans Run the Ball
I believe this is the key to the game. Whomever wins this
matchup will win the game. Last year the Bengals held Foster in check in their
regular season matchup (15 carries for 41 yards) and should have won. However,
they couldn’t duplicate that effort in the playoffs as Foster and Tate
accounted for 190 yards on 33 carries (5.76 ypc) and crushed the Bengals 31-10.
Gary Kubiak, thanks to his zone blocking schemes, has always had highly
productive running games and this 2012 Texans team is no different. Like last
year, the rushing attack is the strength of this Texans team (ranked 8th)
and the Texans use the run game to setup their play-action passing, which is
where Matt Schaub is most effective. The Bengals come into the game ranked 12th
in run defense, and with the exception of last week’s preseason game, have been
shutting down their opponents running games. Arian Foster is a great back and
has 2 starting caliber backups in Tate and Forsett, both of whom the Texans use
often. However, none of these backs are big ‘make you miss’ backs. These backs
rely heavily on the zone blocking of the OL and the Texans OL has struggled in
recent weeks. Two weeks ago, in Houston, the Vikings (11th run
defense) held the Texans to 34 yards on 16 carries. The Bengals keep their DL
fresh by rotating 7-8 players without losing productivity and I believe the
Bengals DL can overwhelm the Texans OL
and therefore hold Foster and company in check.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Texans Throw the Ball
The Texans also sport an impressive passing attack with a
4,000 yard passer (Schaub) and 1,600 yard receiver (Johnson). Schaub has had
success against the Bengals in the past (2-0, 7 TDs, 1 INT), however, due to injury,
he did not play against the Bengals in either matchup last year and hasn’t
played against the Bengals since 2009. Despite his numbers, Schaub is not a
drop back passer and his effectiveness is greatly tied to the ability of the
Texans being able to set up the play-action passing. Hence, if the Bengals can
shut down the run, they can also limit Schaub. The knock on Schaub has always
been his ability (or lack thereof) to win the ‘Big Game’ or the game in the
spotlight. Last year the Texans made the playoffs for the first time under
Schaub’s tenure, and though Schaub led them to the great start, it was TJ Yates
at QB when the Texans clinched and Yates at the helm when the Texans won their
first playoff game in franchise history (Schaub has never played in a playoff
game). This year has been similar. Schaub has had 5 games this year with a QB
rating under
80.0 … and all 5 came in nationally televised games (NYJ, GB, Chi, Det,
NE). In those 5 games, Schaub was 3-2 (0-2 against playoff teams and a
controversial win against the Lions) and averaged 1.4 INTs/game (3 TDs to 7
INTs) compared to .45 INTs/game in the other 11. In the 2 losses, the Texans
were outscored 84-38 and Schaub had 0 TDs and 3 INTs. The other key to for the
Bengals will be to exploit a struggling Texans OL. Schaub was only sacked 27
times (compared to Dalton’s 46), however, he was sacked just 17 times in the
first 12 games (1.42/game – 11-1 record) and 10 times in his last 4 (2.5/game –
1-3 record). This is good news for the Bengals, because the one thing we know
this defense can do is get to the passer (franchise record 51 sacks). If Atkins
and company can collapse the pocket and render the play action ineffective,
they should be able to force Schaub into bad decisions.
As far as receivers go, the Texans mirror the Bengals: a
stud WR (Johnson – 1,598 yards), a good TE (Daniels – 716 yards), and not much else.
We know the Bengals struggle covering the TEs (Daniels especially), however, if
the Bengals can put pressure on Schaub with 4 rushers, they can force Daniels
to stay in and block, drop 7 into coverage, and double Johnson and again cause
Schaub to have to force passes into tight spaces. If the Bengals cannot
pressure Schaub, Johnson and Daniels can exploit the Bengals secondary, especially
with the news coming down today that Crocker is out. This defense took off when
Crocker returned. He may not be the best S, but he is the defensive leader they
were needing. Moral of the story? Pressure Schaub and you will be Ok. Don’t
pressure Schaub? You are in trouble.
Advantage Hou WR v Cin DB – Texans
Advantage Hou OL v Cin DL - Bengals
When the Bengals Run the Ball
The Texans can stop the run (ranked 7th). In
fact, the Texans are the reason AP did not get the rushing record. In week 16,
the Texans held AP to just 86 yards (3.4 ypc and 0 TDs) – doesn’t sound like an
outstanding job, but when the guy averages 131 ypg and 6.0 ypc, that is a great
accomplishment. If you haven’t watched the Bengals this year, let me let you in
on a secret….BJGE is no Adrian Peterson. Going into week 16, it looked like the
Bengals run game had found their footing. BJGE went for 100+ yards in 4 of 5
games, before disappearing in Pittsburgh and sitting for the Baltimore game. 2
questions loom about the Bengals run game going into this game: 1) How healthy
is BJGE?, and 2) if he is healthy, which BJGE will show up? The one that went
for 100+ in 4 of 5 games, or the one that went for 14 yards on 15 carries in
Pittsburgh. Establishing the run could be crucial to slowing down JJ Watt.
Advantage: Texans
When the Bengals Throw the Ball
If the Texans run game is the key to the game, then stopping
JJ Watt is the 2nd key. The Texans have 44 sacks, 20.5 of which are
from Watt. The Bengals have surrendered a staggering 46 sacks and have
struggled since the return of Kyle Cook. Houston lines Watt up all over the
line, but for the most part, he will be lined up across from college teammate
Kevin Zeitler- a big assignment for the rookie. Along with keeping Watt off of
Dalton, Dalton has to worry about keeping Watt and the rest of the Texans from
tipping his passes. Anyone who has watched Dalton knows he has problems with
tipped passes, in fact, in his 2 seasons in the league, he has 32 tipped passes(3rd most in the NFL). Unfortunately for Dalton, the Texans have
tipped 37 passes as a team, 16 by Watt (both tops in the NFL). Last year it was
Watts’ impressive tip/catch pick 6 at the end of the first half that turned a
close 10-10 game into a 31-10 blowout. Dalton needs to be more aware of this
and the OL needs to create passing lanes for Dalton. As for the Bengals
receivers vs the Texans DBs, Houston fields the 16th ranked pass
defense and, like most teams, exactly 0 guys that can cover AJ Green 1-on-1.
Jonathan Joseph is a good CB, but that is about it. The Texans have done a good
job of limiting Reggie Wayne (2x) and Wes Welker, they struggled against Calvin
Johnson (140), Brandon Marshall (107), Jordy Nelson (121), Randall Cobb (102), and
Justin Blackmon (236? – wow!). Though Dalton is not in Stafford’s class yet, of
the teams the Texans have played, the Lions have a receiving corps that most closely resembles that of the Bengals. Calvin Johnson had 8-140, the Lions #2 had 6-126, and
the Lions TEs (Pettigrew and Sheffler) accounted for 13-131. If the Bengals can
keep the Texans (specifically Watt) away from Dalton, the Bengals receivers
should be able to exploit the Texans average at best secondary.
Advantage Cin WR v Hou DB: Bengals
Advantage Cin OL v Hou DL: Texans (aka Watt)
Coaching
These two coaches are very similar: long tenures with the same
team, records right about .500, and limited/no playoff success. Thanks to his
12-4 record this year, Kubiak is now over .500 for his career (59-53), slightly
better than Lewis’s 79-80-1, and though Lewis has been to the playoffs 4 times
to Kubiak’s 2, Kubiak does have 1 playoff win (1-1) and that win came over
Lewis (0-3) and these Bengals last year. While I think Lewis has done a better
job this year, I have to give Kubiak the nod because he is 4-2 against Lewis,
including 1-0 in the playoffs and 2-0 against Lewis just 1 year ago.
Advantage: Texans
Kicking
Because the preview was so late this week, I am making up
for it with BONUS COVERAGE! Think of it like extra credit or brownie points. Due
to Mike Nugent’s injury the Bengals will trot out Josh Brown, and the Texans
will trot out the ex-Bengal, Cinnamon himself. Though Brown has only been with
the team for 1 month, he has been very impressive with his only miss being a 56
yard attempt in Heinz Field – an attempt that should never have been attempted
and an attempt I do not count.
Let’s compare the tape:
|
Category
|
Josh Brown
|
Cinnamon
|
|
||
|
FG Attempts
|
12
|
38
|
|
||
|
FG Made
|
11
|
31
|
|
||
|
FG %
|
91.7%
|
81.6%
|
|
||
|
40-49
|
3/3
|
7/9 (78%)
|
|
||
|
50+
|
1/2
|
4/9 (44%)
|
|
||
|
Long
|
52
|
51
|
|
||
|
Extra Points
|
8/8
|
45/45
|
|
||
|
Career FG%
|
81.3
|
85.4%
|
|
||
|
Career Long
Career 50+
|
58
45%
|
53
27%
|
|
||
|
Playoff A/M
|
16/19 (84%)
|
3/6 (50%)*
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
||
Source: Me - *Graham missed 39yd FG to send Bengals to
playoffs in 2006
No guy named Cinnamon will ever have an advantage, but, as
you can see, Brown has the advantage in this matchup by more than just his
name. While Graham has the better career %, Brown (in limited action) is 10
percentage points ahead of Graham this year. The spot where Brown really has
the advantage is in long kicks and clutch kicks. Not surprising, a guy with the
name of Cinnamon has a weak leg. For his career, Cinnamon has hit 79% of his
FGA from 40-49 (78% in 2012) and just 27% from 50+ (44% in 2012). Brown on the
other hand is a career 90% in FGA from 40-49 (100% in 2012) and 45% in FGA from
50+ (50% in 2012). Also, take a look at each player’s longest FGM by year:
Brown: 58, 55, 54, 54, 54, 55, 53, 49, 52
Graham: 41, 50, 48, 53, 49, 51, 48, 45, 53, 41, 48, 51
Most worrisome for the Texans and Texans fans is Graham’s
playoff and clutch record. In the playoffs - or in kicks that would send his
team to the playoffs – Graham is 3/6 (50%). His misses you ask? Came from 39,
35, and 28! Bengals fans remember all too well his 0-2 performance in the 2009
playoffs (bad misses from 35 and 28) as well as his missed 39 yarder with 12
seconds left in the season finale against Pittsburgh in 2006 (which would have
sent the Bengals to the playoffs and ended the back-to-back drought crap 6
years ago). Brown on the other hand is 16/19 (84%) in the playoffs. His misses?
49, 50 (Super Bowl), and 54 yards (Super Bowl). Those distances are low percentage
kicks and tough to be held against someone. Graham has not made a playoff kick
longer than 35 yards (35, 34, 23). Needles to say, if this game comes down to
FGs, especially long FGs, I like the Bengals chances.
Advantage: Bengals
Conclusion
Overall I like the Bengals in this game for the following reasons:
1) Defense travels well and the Bengals have a good defense which can keep them
in or win the game; 2) Games are won and lost at the line and the Bengals DL
has a bigger advantage over the Texans OL than the Texans DL has over the
Bengals OL; 3) Schaub has yet to win a big game; 4) Special teams – the Bengals
have a huge advantage K, P, and kick coverage; 5) Momentum – the Bengals come
in having won 7 of 8 and giving up just 9 TDs in that span, while the Texans
have lost 3 of 4 and have been giving up 26+ ppg over the last 7 games; 6) Odds
– that right, the Bengals have to have the odds in their favor, right? 0-5 on
the road in the playoffs – odds say they are due for 1 right? 22 years without
a playoff victory – odds say they are due for 1 right? Lewis is 0-3 in the
playoffs – odds say he is due for 1 right? I hope so, the Bengals hope so, and
the city of Cincinnati hopes so. WHO-DEY!!
Prediction:
Bengals 27, Texans 17
BONUS NUMERO DOS!
Here are some Fun Stats to warm your Wild Card Pallet:
During the 2nd half of season:
8 – TDs allowed by the Bengals
22 – TDs allowed by the Texans
12.8 – Pts allowed by the Bengals
24.3 – Pts allowed by the Texans
18 – Turnovers created by the Bengals
15 – Turnovers created by the Texans
27 – Sacks by the Bengals
19 – Sacks by the Texans
4.31 – Yards per play allowed by the Bengals defense (1st)
5.34 – Yards per play allowed by the Texans defense (17th)
7-1 – Bengals record
5-3 – Texans record
Other Facts:
3-1 – Bengals record in the last 4 games
1-3 – Texans record in the last 4 (including 42-14 drubbing
by NE)
37 – Points Texans allowed to the Jaguars
30th – Jaguars ranking in PPG
14.5 – PPG by the Jaguars if you take away their game
against Houston (would rank 31st)
1 – TDs scored by the Texans offense in the past 10 quarters
9 – TDs given up by the Bengals defense in the last 8 games
0-5 – Bengals playoff road record
22 – Years since the Bengals last won a playoff game
8,034 – Days since the Bengals last won a playoff game
26.86 – Points Per Game allowed by the Texans over the last
7 games
As a Bengals fan, my memory of my beloved team is filled
with mostly heartbreak and disappointment:
-
Tim Krumrie’s leg snapping
-
Lewis Billups dropping (what would have been) a
Super Bowl clinching INT
-
The 49ers marching the length of the field to
snatch Super Bowl XXIII from the Bengals with 34 seconds remaining
-
Joe “F%#@ing” Montana to John “F%#@ing” Taylor
-
Stanley Wilson being suspended for cocaine on the
eve of Super Bowl XXIII
-
David Klinger playing football
-
Dave Shula, Bruce Coslet, and Dick LeBeau trying
to coach
-
Mike Brown instituting a loyalty clause in team
contracts (compliments of Carl Pickens)
-
Mike Brown letting Boomer retire
-
Mike Brown turning down the entire Saints draft
in order to pick Akili Smith
-
Gus Ferotte throwing a left handed pass (as a
right handed QB)
-
-
cannot remember the last Bengals playoff victory.
That is sad.
Positive – Jennings 93 yard KO return – Sam Wyche – Ickey Shuffle
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