NFL Division Playoff Predictions

 

Broncos vs Ravens (Den -10)

These two teams met 4 weeks ago in Baltimore. The result? Denver 31, Baltimore 17….and it wasn’t that close. Baltimore added 2 garbage TDs in the 4^th quarter. The scary part for Baltimore is that Manning didn’t even need to do much (17/28 for 204 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT). The reason? Flacco threw a 98 yard pick 6. I like Denver in this game for 3 reasons: 1) Denver has a much better defense (2^nd vs 17^th) and led the NFL in sacks (52), 2) Denver has Peyton Manning, 3) Baltimore has Joe Flacco. Playoff games are generally won by the better QB and whenever I see a matchup of Manning v Flacco, I will take Manning.

Pick: Broncos

49ers vs Packers (SF -3)

This should be a good game. SF has a better defense and a much better run game, but Justin Smith is out and GB has Rodgers. In week 1 SF beat GB 30-22 and like the 1^st Broncos Ravens game, it wasn’t that close. However, SF was playing great to start the season and Rodgers was not. In this one I am going with GB solely because of my rule of QBs. Rodgers v Kaepernick – I have to go Rodgers hands down. I like Kaepernick, but this is his first playoff game and Rodgers has a Super Bowl ring. I am also in the camp that believes Harbaugh did the wrong thing in replacing Smith with Kaepernick. At the time, Smith had SF at 6-2 and lead the NFL in QB rating. You don’t make that replacement without causing a rift in the locker room. So far, it hasn’t bit him because they have played well, but if things start going south on Saturday, watch what happens with that team. Harbaugh took the league by storm last year, and by no means should be on any hot seats, but he may have earned himself a shorter leash down the road if that move doesn’t pan out. Let’s not forget, Smith lead the 49ers to the NFC Championship last year. 

QB A – 5-2-1, 136/218, 62.4%, 1,814 yards, 15 total TDs, 3 INT, 9 Fumbles, 1-0 vs playoff teams

QB B – 6-2, 153/218, 70.0%, 1,737 yards, 13 total TDs, 5 INT, 4 Fumbles, 2-1 vs playoff teams

Who is who? Who do you start? While both have good numbers, QB A is Kaepernick and QB B is Smith. The 9 fumbles have to be concerning to SF.

Pick: Packers

Falcons vs Seahawks  (Atl -1)

I like the underdog Seahawks here. Why? 3 reasons: 1) Defense – defense travels well in the playoffs. The Seahawks have the 4^th ranked defense and even without Clemons, they match up strength vs strength against the Falcons (Sea – DBs v Atl – WRs). When it comes to offense vs defense, I lean to the defense. And speaking of defense, Atlanta is ranked 24^th on defense and Seattle has a competent (17^th) offense. 2) Matt Ryan – has yet to win a playoff game, 0-3 (0-2 at home) and has 3 TDs to 4 INTs, and 3) Mike Smith – also 0-3 in the playoffs – trying not to tie Marvin at 0-4. When it boils down to it, I trust Seattle’s defense to slow Atlanta’s offense enough and I do not believe Atlanta’s defense can slow Seattle’s offense enough.

Pick: Seahawks

Patriots vs Texans (NE -10)

Back to my rule on QBs – Brady v Schaub – advantage Brady. Brady has more Super Bowls (3) than Schaub has playoff appearances and/or wins (1 each), and after watching the Texans last week, I believe Schaub is lucky to have that 1 playoff win. For the first 12 weeks of the year the Texans looked like a Super Bowl contender (11-1). The last 5 weeks, the Texans have not even looked like a playoff worthy team. That slide started with a trip to NE where the Texans lost 42-14 in a game that ended with both backup QBs in and TJ Yates running in a garbage TD with 2 minutes left. What has changed since then? Nothing. NE has been playing well leading into the playoffs and Houston lost 2 of their next 4. Yes the Texans beat the Bengals last week, but if it weren’t for a poorly thrown deep ball by Dalton, the Bengals would have snuck out of Houston with a poorly played ‘W’. In their earlier matchup, NE had 130 yards rushing and 1 TD to go along with Brady’s 296 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs and was sacked once. Schaub on the other hand had 0 TDs and 1 INT. While I expect the game to be closer than 28 points this time around, I don’t expect it to be much closer.

 

Pick: Patriots

Mark 'em Smokey!!