Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Divisional Pick Recap / Conference Championship Picks




Hopefully no one bet the house on the 12 oz insight from last weekend….if so, I am sure the new owner of your house will love it! There is a reason why Las Vegas has big hotels and fancy things – and it has nothing to do with my brilliance or lack thereof, it is because Denver and Seattle apparently employ defensive coordinators that are apparently against protecting leads with less than 1 minute to play! If the DC’s in Denver or Seattle were worth their weight in salt, I would have been 3-1. But they are not. So I was not. And now your house belongs to someone else. Sorry about that. Hey, there is always this week to redeem ourselves, eh?

First, a recap of what went wrong in last week’s 1-3 debacle:

Broncos vs Texans

·         John Fox does not have a Super Bowl ring…there is a reason for that. On Saturday Fox displayed game tactics that would make Marvin Lewis and Jim Tressel look like Chip Kelly. 

1)   At the 2 minute warning, the Broncos had the ball, 3rd and 7, right about midfield. Baltimore had 0 timeouts. A first down ends the game, and oh by the way, your QB is Peyton Manning…and Fox elects to run the ball and then punt? I agree the defense “should” be able to stop the Ravens from going 77 yards in 1:09, but why not try to end the game before getting to that point?

2)   The Ravens just went 77 yards in 38 seconds with no timeouts and Joe Flacco. You have Peyton Manning and need to get about 40 yards in 31 seconds with 2 timeouts and you elect to take a knee? Way to coach to win! The ballsy Mike Smith showed you that it could be done with someone far less decorated than Peyton Manning.

·         As for Manning: Peyton Manning was not the reason the Broncos lost that game, yet he will be/is being unfairly criticized for it. However, he cannot make that throw at the end of OT. That INT feeds his critics.

·         Why does the defensive coordinator have the defense playing Cover 2 rather than Prevent? And why was the CB releasing Jones to the safety? Was he worried about a pass over the middle or in the flats? Outstanding football IQ boys!

·         I have never seen a ball played as badly as Rahim Moore (Denver safety). I am guessing Mr. Moore never played much outfield in his younger days. 

49ers vs Packers

·         Serve me my crow cold please. I completely underestimated Kaepernick and overestimated Aaron Rodgers. My apologies to Jim Harbaugh and Colin Kaepernick. 

·         The recap on this game is easy: Colin Kaepernick > GB defense.

·         GB needs help on defense. The offense is good enough to win another Super Bowl. The defense? Not so much. Think about this: a little more than 1 year ago, GB was on a 19 game winning streak (end of 2010 – including playoffs – and 13 straight in 2011), had a Super Bowl, and looked unstoppable. Since then, they haven’t won a playoff game (0-2). 

·         In their last 2 playoff games, GB has given up a total of 82 points (37 and 45). Not surprising they are 0-2. 

Falcons vs Seahawks

·         Was this an incredible comeback by the Falcons or an epic choke by the Seahawks? I would say epic choke. 

·         Unlike Baltimore, Atlanta only needed a FG to win, so soft coverage should not have been an option (but what do I know). 

·         With 31 seconds left, and 2 timeouts, the 4th ranked defense played soft coverage and let the Falcons go 41 yards in 18 seconds. That is bad. 

o   John Fox take note: Matt Ryan took his team 41 yards in 18 seconds with 2 timeouts. You have Peyton Manning.

Patriots vs Texans

·         Tom Brady > Matt Schaub

·         Bill Belichick > Gary Kubiak

·         Was there more that happened in this game? Sure, but that is all you need to know.


 Conference Championship Locks!



With that being said, my Conference Championship picks will help you win back your money so you can buy a new house! These babies are pretty much, almost, possibly, written on stone with pencil! (that is some backside coverage that would make Adam Schefter proud!):

 

Ravens @ Patriots – (NE -9)

The Ravens have been a tough matchup for the Patriots over the years. While NE holds a 5-2 edge in the last 7 matchups, the Ravens have given the Patriots trouble in recent games. Baltimore whooped NE in NE during the 2010 playoffs 33-14, they beat NE in Baltimore earlier this year 31-30, and they should have won last year in the playoffs (also in NE L 23-20). Baltimore has also been riding high on emotion with the announcement that Ray Lewis will retire after this season and played an inspired game last weekend, the type of game which makes you wonder if they are a team of destiny. Despite all that, I just look at Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and cannot pick Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh over them. I do however believe a spread of 9 is too much. I expect the Patriots to win comfortably, but by less than 9.  

Pick: Patriots

49ers @ Falcons – (SF -4)

Atlanta, Mike Smith, and Matt Ryan finally got their playoff win…albeit, thanks to an epic 4th quarter collapse only to come back thanks to poor end of game defense from Seattle. Scoring with 31 seconds left and taking a 1 point lead with the 4th ranked defense, Seattle had won the game. Until they hadn’t. Atlanta’s 31 second drive to get a game winning FG was improbable to say the least, and, like the Ravens win, was the type of win that makes you wonder if they too are a team of destiny. I don’t believe either are. In fact, I believe both are lucky as hell to be playing this weekend and I don’t think either will win. Atlanta has a more balanced attack than GB and has home field advantage, however, they have one glaring hole. The lack of a defense. Last week the Falcons gave up 385 yards passing and 60 yards running to Russell Wilson (485 total yards). Lucky for Atlanta, Kaepernick is a lot like Wilson…except even more dynamic! Kaepernick went for 181 yards on the ground and 263 in the air with 4 total TDs (2 running, 2 passing) against a GB defense that ranks well above Atlanta in every category (Rushing, Passing, and Overall). The Falcons can put points on the board, but the problem is they won’t be able to do so as rapidly as the 49ers will because Atlanta, unlike SF, will be required to face an actual defense. As much as it pains me as a Bengals fan, it looks like the 49ers will be going back to the Super Bowl for the 3rd time since stealing Super Bowl XXIII from the Bengals.  

Pick: 49ers

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