Quarterback:
Rarely will you see Dalton have the advantage over a Super
Bowl winning quarterback, but that is the case when it comes to Dalton vs
Flacco. I believe Joe Flacco to be one of the most (if not the most) overrated quarterbacks
in the NFL. I also believe Joe Flacco is the 2nd most over paid
quarterback in NFL history (JaMarcuss Russell). Yes, he is the only quarterback
to win a playoff game each of the last 5 years. Yes, he is 9-4 in the playoffs.
Yes, he has a Super Bowl. Yes, that is much more success than Dalton has had in
the playoffs. However, prior to last year, the Ravens weren’t winning in the
post season because of Flacco. Before his improbable 2012 run, Flacco’s playoff
numbers in 9 games were:
|
Comp
%
|
TD
|
INT
|
Fumbles
|
Yards
|
YPG
|
Rating
|
QBR
|
|
54.3
|
8
|
8
|
2
|
1,532
|
170.2
|
69.1
|
32.5
|
Those numbers are terrible, and if not for a great defense,
are usually associated with losing quarterbacks. Give Flacco credit, he played
the lottery last year in a contract year, caught fire in the playoffs, and
cashed in that lottery ticket in the offseason to the tune of $20 million per
year, but that contract doesn’t make him better than Dalton. Many believed the
improbable 2012 playoff run finally got Flacco around the corner. Not me. Take
a look at Dalton and Flacco’s 2013 stats:
|
Comp
%
|
TD
|
INT
|
Fumbles
|
Yards
|
YPG
|
Rating
|
QBR
|
|
59.4
|
10
|
9
|
4
|
2,167
|
270.9
|
85.6
|
51.9
|
|
64.8
|
16
|
10
|
3
|
2,587
|
287.4
|
92.0
|
59.6
|
If not for Dalton’s brutal game 9 (Flacco has only played
8), these stats would be much more lopsided. I will agree, Dalton’s 2013 has
been very hit or miss – either really good or really bad, and not much in
between, but Flacco’s 2013 has been all miss. Take a look at where Dalton and
Flacco rank amongst their peers in 2013:
|
|
Dalton
|
Flacco
|
|
Comp %
|
9th
|
24th
|
|
TD
|
T-5th
|
T-18th
|
|
Yards
|
4th
|
T-12th
|
|
YPG
|
7th
|
T-11th
|
|
INT
|
T-29th
|
T-27th
|
|
Rating
|
9th
|
24th
|
|
QBR
|
13th
|
19th
|
|
Salary
|
42nd
|
3rd
|
Given Flacco’s accuracy issues and overall consistent poor
play, I give Dalton the advantage here.
Advantage: Bengals
Running Backs:
What has happened to Ray Rice? Is he injured? Has he lost
it? Is it the offensive line? The offensive scheme/philosophy? Or a combination
of all? I think it is a combination of all but the losing it part. I don’t
think he is 100%, I think his line sucks and I don’t think the Ravens have ever
used him to his fullest capabilities. Through 8 games, Rice has just 259 yards,
2.7 ypc, 3 TDs and 2 fumbles. Pro Football Focus has Rice ranked 31st
out of 31 qualifying running backs for elusiveness (accounts for missed tackles
and YAC). That is 165 yards less than BJGE and .5 ypc less than BJGE. How bad
are those numbers? Take a look at Rice’s average numbers since becoming a
starter in 2009 and compare them to his projected stats for 2013:
|
|
Att
|
Yards
|
Avg
|
TDs
|
Rec
|
Yards
|
Avg
|
TDs
|
|
2009-2012
|
277
|
1,267
|
4.6
|
8.25
|
70
|
610
|
8.8
|
1.5
|
|
2013
Projected
|
194
|
518
|
2.7
|
6
|
54
|
270
|
5.0
|
0
|
Something isn’t right, and the Bengals will look to
capitalize on those stuggles on Sunday. As a result of Rice’s struggles on the
ground, the Ravens rank 29th in the NFL in rushing ypg. Though the
Bengals run attack has also been disappointing in 2013 (19th), they have
gotten 1,061 all-purpose yards from their backs, 9 TDs (7 rushing, 2 receiving),
and plenty of big explosive plays from Bernard. In comparison, the Ravens backs
(Rice and Pierce) have contributed just 5 TDs and 662 all-purpose yards.
Advantage: Bengals
Wide Receivers:
No wide receiver has been targeted more than AJ Green (104)
and no wide receiver has more yards than Green either (862). While Torrey Smith
is having a decent year with 707 yards (8th), he really is a one
trick pony (deep ball). While Smith is 8th in yards, he has just 36
receptions (T-41st) and 1 more TD than me (1). As a result, I don’t
believe Smith is a #1. Regardless, the bigger issue for the Ravens is their
options behind Smith. Even if you believe Smith is a #1, they definitely lack a
#2. Jacoby Jones has been injured almost all year. Marlon Brown is a big target
(6’4” 205) and has a lot of TDs (5), but he only has 26 receptions for 297
yards. Meaning he is giving them little outside of the redzone. And Tandon Doss
is, well, a guy name Tandon Doss – who cares. Even excluding Green, the Bengals
have 4 receivers (Jones, Eifert, Sanu, Gresham) that have more yards than the
Ravens #2 receiver (Brown - 297) – and Bernard has 267 as well. The Bengals
will certainly have the best receiver on the field Sunday (Green), but the real
advantage for the Bengals comes in as you go down the depth chart. If you count
Eifert, Gresham, Bernard and the now healthy Hawkins, the Bengals have the 3rd
(Jones), 4th (Eifert), 5th (Sanu), 6th
(Gresham) and 7th (Hawkins) best receivers as well. That is one heck
of an advantage.
Advantage: Bengals
Tight Ends:
The injury to Dennis Pitta really hurt Flacco and the
Ravens. With Ed Dickson also suffering from some injuries, the Ravens were forced
to pick up Dallas Clark. While he is not the player he once was, Clark has been
somewhat productive with 24 receptions, 279 yards (sadly 3rd on the
team), and 2 TDs. The problem is that Clark does not have the speed to
separate, does not have the size to create a mismatch, and offers zero in the
running game. The Bengals on the other hand feature a tight end duo in Graham
and Eifert that have combined for for 60 receptions, 628 yards and 2 TDs.
Advantage: Bengals
Offensive Line:
When your offensive line plays poorly, teams generally
struggle. The Ravens are no different. Much of the Ravens struggles can be
traced back to the offensive line. The Ravens have surrendered 25 sacks in 8
games (3.1/g) - only 6 teams are giving up more sacks per game (Cle, NYJ,
Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Miami – combined record of 18-32). The
Ravens tried to address this by trading for Eugene Monroe mid-year, but,
according to Pro Football Focus, Monroe (55) may be a nominal upgrade over
McKinnie (61). In fact, in the last 3 games (the 3 Monroe has started), the
Ravens are giving up 3.7 sacks per game – only Oakland (5.0) and Pittsburgh
(4.3) are worse in the past 3. Not surprising, the Ravens are 0-3 in that
stretch. And, believe it or not, their run blocking (29th) has
actually been worse than their passing blocking. Rice is on pace for an
embarrassingly career low in yards (518) and yards per carry (2.7). The Bengals
line on the other hand, despite some injuries, has played pretty well (with the
exception of last Thursday. The Bengals are 9th in the league,
surrendering just 2.3 sacks per game (21), and while the run game has been
disappointing (19th), it has produced 7 TDs. They will have their
hands full with Ngata, Suggs and Dumervil, Whitworth has been strong against
Suggs over their careers.
Advantage: Bengals
Defensive Line:
With Atkins, the Bengals would definitely have the edge.
Without Atkins, I still give the Bengals a slight edge, and here is why. While
the Ravens have 14.5 sacks from Suggs and Dumervil, Suggs and Dumervil are
“line backers” in the Ravens 3-4 scheme. Therefore, I don’t count them. The
Ravens are 8th against the run and 3rd in the NFL with
3.4 sacks/game (27),however, of those 27 sacks only 6.5 are from the line. The
Bengals on the other hand are 10th against the run, t-10th
with 25 sacks, and of their 25 sacks, 20.5 are from the line (14.5 even without
Geno). Therefore, given the Bengals line versatility, depth, and the fact that
they have 4 lineman to Baltimore’s 3, I give the Bengals the advantage.
Advantage: Bengals
Linebackers:
On Sunday, Vontaze Burfict will be the best “true
linebacker” on the field. However, we have to look at the group as a whole, and
here is where the 14.5 sacks of Suggs and Dumervil come in to play. Hence, this
is where the Ravens have an advantage. However, the extent of that advantage
may not be what you would think. While Suggs and Dumervil are excellent rushing
the passer, one way to neutralize that is to force them into coverage (or at least
rush wider) with 2 tight end sets. It just so happens that the Bengals have 2
pass catching tight ends and possibly run the most 2 tight end sets in the NFL.
When Suggs or Dumervil are in coverage, they now become a liability for the
Ravens. Regardless, with Maualuga and Boley out again, the Ravens certainly are
better off at the linebacker position as a whole.
Advantage: Ravens
Cornerbacks:
The Bengals receivers should find plenty of favorable
matchups on Sunday. The Ravens have just 4 interceptions in 8 games. Only 3
teams have less (3 – GB, Hou, Jax). Of the 4 interceptions, their MLB Daryl
Smith has 2 of them. The Ravens 3 cornerbacks have accounted for just 2
interceptions on the year. That is good news for the Bengals, so long as they
can keep the Ravens off Dalton. If so, there is not a single Ravens cornerback
that can cover a single Bengals receiver one-on-one. On the other side, the
Bengals have lost their best cornerback (Leon Hall), but even without Hall,
they still have a deep and talented secondary with veterans Terrence Newman,
Adam Jones, and new comer Dre Kirkpatrick. The Bengals have 4 interceptions
from their cornerbacks, and outside of Smith, they should matchup fairly well
one-on-one.
Advantage: Bengals
Safeties:
It will be weird seeing the Ravens without Ed Reed. For the
last 11 years, Reed was manning the back end of the Ravens secondary and doing
it as good or better than any safety in the history of the NFL. Reed had 61
interceptions in his 11 years with the Ravens, including 5 seasons of 7+. The
safeties this year for the Ravens? They have 0 interceptions, 0 sacks, 0 forced
fumbles, and just 5 passes defensed (combined). While I like the rookie Elam
(and wanted the Bengals to take him), he hasn’t done much in the NFL so far. He
can hit, but he can be overaggressive and take bad angles at times as well.
Though the Bengals don’t have breath-taking safeties either, Reggie Nelson is
in the upper echelon of safeties and George Iloka has held his own this year.
Given the lack of production from the safety position in Baltimore, the Bengals
get the advantage again.
Advantage: Bengals
Kickers:
Though only in his second year, Justin Tucker has become a
very reliable kicker. In 2013, Tucker is 16-18 in 2013 - only missing from 44
and 50 - and a career 90.2% kicker. Nugent is 12-15 and a career 81% kicker.
Though both of his misses came in Baltimore (both against Cleveland), I have to
give the nod to Tucker.
Advantage: Ravens
Special Teams:
The Bengals have the edge at punter - Huber is 12th
in the NFL in Net punting, while Baltimore ranks 29th.
In the kick return game, the Ravens have a slight advantage
(10th vs 12th).
In the punt return game, the Ravens are 1st
(averaging 16.7 per return) and the Bengals 20th, meaning it is
critical for Huber to do a good job of keeping it away from the Baltimore punt
returners (Doss and Jones).
Advantage: Ravens
Coaches:
John Harbaugh has 1 Super Bowl, 9 post season wins, and 1
post season win each of the last 5 seasons. Marvin Lewis has 0 playoff wins and
is unaware of what the Super Bowl is. Advantage Harbaugh and the Ravens.
However, this is not as big of an advantage as one might think. Harbaugh has
his own issues. No team has been worse at losing to bad teams than the Ravens
over his tenure, and, for all his success, Harbaugh has never found a
consistent way to use Ray Rice. As a result, I believe this is matchup is
closer than you might think
Advantage: Ravens
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