Who would have thought the week 11
matchup of the Bengals vs the Browns could be the determining game for the AFC
North? Not me. What I do know is that this game is huge for both teams. A loss
by the Browns, though mathematically would not preclude them from the division,
would for all intents and purposes seal their fate in the division. I also
believe a win Sunday by the Bengals clinches the division (technically) – and here
is why. A win would give the Bengals 7 wins going into the bye and facing a 5
game stretch run that should yield at least 3 wins (getting them to 10 wins) a
loss by the Browns would give them 6 losses, requiring the Browns to go 6-0
just to finish the season tied with the Bengals (not happening). Further, I
believe the Ravens will lose Sunday in Chicago, setting up the same scenario
for the Ravens needing to go 6-0 (again, not happening). I loss by the Bengals
however would leave the division up for grabs. So, while the AFC North title
will not be handed out tomorrow by the NFL, it is my belief that a win by the
Bengals does seal the division.
With that being said, here is what to Look For….
This is not a good matchup for the Browns. The word “Bad”
does not accurately portray the Browns run game. The Browns rank 26th
in the NFL, averaging a pitiful 81.6 ypg (only 58.2 ypg from actual running
backs). The Browns have yet to have a back go over 75 yards in a game, and in 1
game (Minnesota), there leading rusher was a defensive back (Josh Aubrey – 34
yds on 1 run). Only twice have the Browns had a back go over 46 yards, and one
of those backs (Richardson) was traded. And don’t fool yourself, the abysmal
running attack the Browns put on the field week after week is not the result of
the Richardson trade. Richardson only had 105 yards in 2 games (3.4 ypc).
Through 9 games, the Browns have 734 rushing yards as a team. Of those yards,
only 419 come from running backs currently on the team and 210 come from
players that play positions not called running back (QBs, TEs, WRs and even DBs).
When you think about it, it is amazing these numbers only put the Browns 26th
in running! Making matters worse for the Browns when they visit Cincinnati is
that the Bengals are stout against the run. The Bengals are 9th in
the NFL against the run (102.0 ypg) – it is sad that if the Browns get to the
Bengals 9th rated average (102 yds), that would be a great game. The
Browns – as a team – have gotten over 102 yards twice this year – 103 in
Minnesota thanks to a 34 yard run by a DB, and 126 against Detroit thanks to a
45 yard run by a WR. In their previous meeting, the Browns collected 89 yards
on 30 carries. So while the Browns “technically” have a run game, I am going out
on a limb and predicting the Bengals will make the Browns run game a non-factor
on Sunday.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Browns
Throw the Ball:
In 8 seasons in the league, Jason Campbell has never thrown
more interceptions than touchdowns, and he doesn’t show any signs of changing that
this year (5 TD, 0 INTs). In his two
starts with the Browns, Campbell has two 100+ QB ratings, is completing 61.3%
of his passes and is averaging 278 yards, 2.5 TDs and 0 INTs per game. Unlike
his predecessors, who were sacked 28 times in 7 games (4 per game), Campbell
has only been sacked 3 times in his two starts. The Bengals are going to need
to get pressure on Campbell and make him uncomfortable, but that is much easier
said than done. The impressive Ravens front that got to Dalton 5 times last
week, only got to Campbell twice the week before; and the league leading Chiefs
could muster just 1 sack at home against Campbell. If the Bengals can’t get to
Campbell and make him uncomfortable, it could be a long day. Gordon, Little,
Bess and Cameron are good enough to take advantage of an injured Bengals secondary.
While Cameron and Campbell haven’t shown much chemistry so far (5 receptions,
85 yards, 0 TDs), Campbell has worked well with all of his receivers. Gordon
had 132 yards in Campbell’s first game and in his second game, Little had 122
yards and Bess had 2 TDs. Seeing what Campbell has done to 2 good defenses (KC
and Bal), It wouldn’t be surprising to give the Browns the advantage here, however,
my gut is saying Bengals – and here is why: In the last 3 games, the Bengals
have 11 sacks and opposing QBs are averaging a measly 175 yards (524), .67 TDs
(2), 1.3 INTs (4) and have an average QB rating of just 67.8. I expect the
Browns passing game to make some plays, but when it is all said and done, I
think the Bengals and Zimmer will get the best of the Browns in this matchup.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Run the Ball:
Just as the Browns run game is not a good matchup against
the Bengals run defense, the Bengals run game is not a good matchup against the
Browns run defense either. The Browns have a very good defense, the strength of
which is the run defense (6th in the NFL – 98.2 ypg). And, while the
Bengals running attack is much better than that of the Browns, it is average at
best – 18th (108.1 ypg). In Part I of the Battle of Ohio, BJGE and
Bernard only ran the ball 16 times for 50 yards (3.1 ypc). I suspect Gruden has
learned his lesson the past few weeks and will run the ball more on Sunday (prediction:
25+ runs), but I don’t expect much more success the second time around -
especially with Zeitler out and Cook, Whitworth and BJGE all at less than 100%.
However, the Bengals don’t need a huge game running the ball, they simply need
enough success to get the DBs peeking in the backfield. Doing so allows the
Bengals to effectively use play action passing and also pulls the linebackers
and safeties a little closer to the line of scrimmage, therefore opening up
some opportunities for the Bengals receivers and TEs. In the first game in
Cleveland, the Bengals had absolutely no run game and Dalton struggled because
of it. If the Bengals cannot establish some sense of a run game Sunday, Dalton
may struggle again, just like he did in the first matchup and just like he has
the last two games. Right now, I don’t trust this Bengals run game and I don’t trust
the runs Gruden calls.
Advantage: Browns
When the Bengals
Throw the Ball:
The Bengals have the 7th ranked passing offense,
but they will be facing a Browns defense that is ranked 10th against
the pass, has 31 sacks (5th in the NFL) and earlier this year forced
Dalton in to one of his worst games of his career (23/42, 206 yards, 0 Tds, 1
INT, 2 fumbles (1 lost) and a 58.2 rating). While the Browns only sacked Dalton
twice, they got a lot of pressure on him and he never looked comfortable. When
Dalton did release the ball, it wasn’t good. In the first matchup, the Browns
had 10 passes defensed! Dalton has to play better if the Bengals want to win
Sunday. The reason I like the Bengals in this round of the Battle of Ohio is
because of the increased role of their secondary weapons – those not named AJ
Green. In week 4, the Bengals had yet to establish the roles of Eifert and
Bernard and they still had not found a #2 receiver. Since that game, Eiftert
has become a staple on the offense, Bernard has become a dynamic dual threat
back, and Marvin Jones (who had targets in the first matchup) has clearly
established himself as one of the better #2 WRs in the league. In the 6 games
since, Jones has 22 receptions, 357 yards, 6 TDs and 49 yards rushing. Oh, and
Andrew Hawkins is back. If Dalton stays upright and keeps the ball away from
the Browns, I don’t believe the Browns have the personnel to defend all of the
Bengals weapons. This advantage, however, is completely contingent on Dalton –
if we see the Dalton from last two weeks, the Browns will have the advantage;
if we see the Dalton from weeks 6-8, the Bengals should be ok.
Advantage: Bengals
Special Teams:
Kickoff Returns:
Though the Browns are ranked higher (4th compared to 9th),
they lost their game changing returner (Travis Benjamin) for the year.
Punt Returns:
Like the kick returns, the Browns are ranked higher (12th compared
to 19th), but this is in large part due to Benjamin. Without him,
the Browns return game is pretty average, just like that of the Bengals.
Kickers: Cundiff 13/15
is having a better year than Nugent (13/17). Given Sunday’s projected weather,
this could come into play.
Punters: While
the Bengals Net average is just .4 yards better than that of the Browns, the
Bengals have one of the best punters in the game (Huber) when it comes to
directional punting and pinning the opponent inside the 20. Huber is 6th
in the NFL with 18 punts inside the 20 – 2 more than the Browns, despite 5
fewer attempts.
Kick Coverage:
The Bengals and Browns rank 20th and 21st respectively,
just .7 yards per return different 23.4 vs 22.7).
Punt Coverage:
When it comes to defending the punt, the Bengals (7th thanks in
large part to Huber) have a big advantage over the Browns (16th) –
7.0 compared to 9.3.
Advantage: Push
Coaches:
I never thought I would be giving Marvin as much love as I
have in recent matchups, but his improved challenge percentage and new
aggressive play calling is starting to win me over. Plus, Marvin has about 10
more years of NFL head coaching experience than Chudzinski.
Advantage: Bengals
Key to the Game:
Andy Dalton. It is that simple. If Dalton plays well, the
Bengals will win. If he does not, this game (and maybe the division) will be up
for grabs. Dalton doesn’t have to play like Peyton Manning, he simply has to
play smart, protect the football and take what the defense gives him. While his
play often mirrors that of his line, this game will ultimately come down to
Dalton’s play. If Dalton plays well, the Bengals win this game comfortably.
However, the last two weeks we have seen how Dalton’s poor play has allowed the
less talented team to win.
Prediction:
I think the Bengals (and specifically Dalton) know how
important this game is and I think they will capitalize and show their
superiority. I don’t know why, or how, but I think the Bengals win comfortably
and get themselves back on track for the division.
Bengals 27, Browns 17
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