I am very concerned about this game. Not
because of the team the Bengals are playing, but because of where and when the
Bengals are playing – on the West Coast and off a bye week. Why? Because Marvin
Lewis is 6-11 on the West Coast and has an embarrassing 3-6-1 record following
a bye week. It may sound crazy, but I believe this to be a “must win” game for
the Bengals. A win would put the Bengals at 8-4, it would maintain their 2 game
lead over Baltimore with just 4 to play and it would make 10 wins very
obtainable. With Baltimore @Detriot, home against New England and @Cincinnati in
their last 3 games, I don’t see them being able to get to 10 wins. A loss,
however, would cut the Bengals lead to just one game, leave them at 7-5, and
with a tough remaining schedule (Indy, @Pittsburch, Minnesota, Baltimore), 10
wins may not be plausible for the Bengals, therefore, a one game lead could
leave the division up for grabs.
So, with this big West Coast trip to look forward to, here is What
to Look For….
When the Chargers
Run the Ball:
Chargers Running
Attack: 17th – 110.8 ypg
Bengals Run Defense: 10th
– 102.0 ypg
While the Chargers run game is average at best (17th),
they feature a two back system that can create problems for defenses. For the
first time in his career, Ryan Mathews is healthy and has played in every one
of his team’s games. While he is not having the type of year the Chargers
envisioned when they drafted him 12th overall in 2010, with721
yards, 4.4 ypc and 3 TDs, Mathews is having a productive year. The back that
scares me more, however, is Danny Woodhead. Woodhead doesn’t scare me as much
in the run game (266 yards, 3.8 ypc, 2 TDs) as he does in the passing game (59
receptions, 469 yards, 5 TDS). Woodhead is tied for the team lead in receptions
(59) and his speed, quickness and route running ability coming out of the
backfield presents a problem for the line backers and safeties that are tasked
with trying to cover him – and covering running backs and tight ends have never
been a strength of the Bengals. Even with Burfict’s injury on Friday, I am
comfortable with the Bengals ability to shut down the Chargers run game, but I
do worry about their ability to cover the running backs coming out of the
backfield.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Chargers
Throw the Ball:
Chargers Passing
Attack: 4th – 296.9 ypg
Bengals Pass Defense:
6th – 211.1 ypg
After 2 subpar years (53 TDs and 55 Turnovers), Rivers is having
a career resurgence in 2013 - 3,381 yards, 22 TDs and only 8 INTs (0 fumbles) –
and is on pace for his best season of his career (statistically anyways).
Rivers has found a new #1 in rookie Keenan Allen (50 receptions, 737 yards, 3
TDS), a reliable veteran slot receiver in Eddie Royal (34 receptions, 484
yards, 7 TDs), and though Gates is not the player he once was, he is still a reliable
safety outlet that can move the chains (59 receptions, 685 yards, 3 TDs). On
top of that, with Woodhead, Rivers finally has the shifty back out of the
backfield he has lacked since LT’s departure. These weapons, combined with a
line that ranks 4th in surrendering sacks (20) has sparked the
Chargers passing attack from 24th in 2012 to 4th in 2013
and back into playoff contention for the first time in years. The Bengals
corners have played well, but with Hall, Lamur and Taylor out for the year and
Burfict on a gimpy ankle, the Bengals are going to need help from their
defensive line and getting pressure on Rivers. Though the Bengals rank 6th
with 34 sacks, getting to Rivers is going to be a tall task against a solid
Chargers offensive line yielding less than 2 sacks per game (20). If the
Bengals can get to Rivers, I think they have the advantage in this matchup. If
they cannot, Rivers could have a big day. With the game on the west coast, I am
giving the nod to the Chargers here.
Advantage: Chargers
When the Bengals
Run the Ball:
Bengals Running
Attack: 20th – 110.8 ypg
Chargers Run Defense:
17th – 113.5 ypg
The Chargers run defense is the strength of the Chargers
defense…but they are still ranked in the bottom half of the league (17th),
so that isn’t saying much. Lucky for the Chargers, the Bengals running attack
is ranked just 20th, has a dinged up BJGE and is missing their
starting RG in Kevin Zeitler. On the road, the run game is going to be very
important. The Bengals have a line that is capable of running the ball
successfully and BJGE and Bernard offer a lot as a 1-2 punch out of the
backfield. I have a feeling the Bengals have worked a bunch on the run game in
the off week and I don’t think the Chargers can cover Bernard coming out of the
backfield. I believe Marvin has been in Gruden’s ear about the run game and I expect
to see an improved Bengals run game in San Diego. As a result, I see the
Bengals having the advantage here in the matchup of two mediocre-at-best units.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Throw the Ball:
Bengals Passing
Attack: 10th – 256.6 ypg
Chargers Pass Defense:
28th – 276.0 ypg
Since his 5 TD 1 INT performance against the Jets in week 8,
Andy Dalton has 5 TDs and 8 INTs in the 3 games since. If there is a defense to
get “right” against, this Chargers defense is perfect. After a 3 game stretch
of facing the 14th, 11th and 5th ranked
passing defenses in terms of passing ypg and the 9th, 2nd
and 14th ranked defenses in terms of sacks, Dalton faces a Chargers
defense that ranks 28th in terms of passing ypg (276.0) and 16th
in terms of sacks (29). If Dalton can’t find his rhythm against this defense,
he is going to have problems finding it against any defense. Green, Jones,
Sanu, Eifert, Gresham, Bernard and Hawkins ought to be able to overwhelm the
guys tasked with covering them and Dalton ought to be able to expose a defense
that has less interceptions than all but two teams (Jacksonville and Houston). According
to our friends at ProFootballFocus,
Shareece Wright and Derek Cox grade out as the worst and second worst cover
corners in the NFL. As long as the Bengals can provide a good pocket for Dalton
on the road, Bengals should have a huge advantage in the passing game.
Advantage: Bengals
Special Teams:
Kickoff Returns: Chargers
- 6th (25.6 avg); Bengals – 24th (22.8 avg)
Punt Returns: Chargers
– 22nd (8.5 avg); Bengals – 7th (11.5)
Kickers: Nick
Novak is one of the better kickers in the league and is 22/25 (88%) in 2013.
Mike Nugent is not having a good year - 15/19 (78.9%).
Punters: Chargers
– 6th (43.0 Net); Bengals – 22nd (40.2 Net); Punts inside
the 20: Chargers T-26th (14); Bengals T-1st (26).
Kick Coverage: Chargers
– 25th (25.1 avg); Bengals 16th (23.2 avg)
Punt Coverage: Chargers
– 11th (7.6 avg); Bengals – 9th (7.2 avg)
Neither team really has a dynamic return or special kicker.
The Bengals have the better punter, but overall, the two teams are pretty even
when it comes to special teams.
Advantage: Push
Coaches:
I am shocking myself with the amount of times I am giving
Marvin the advantage over his counterpart, but with 10+ years of experience as
a head coach and an overall 86-84-1 record (.506), I have to give Lewis the
advantage over a rookie coach like Mike McCoy who is 5-6 in his rookie year and
has 1 year of NFL Offensive Coordinator success – 2012, the year he had Peyton
Manning. In 2010, McCoy’s offense was ranked 13th; in 2011 23rd;
then he gets Manning and his offense is ranked 4th and he gets a HC
gig? All I can say is that if I was an OC with Peyton Manning as my QB, I too
would look good (and therefore get a HC gig)…because Manning is the OC. Mike
McCoy ought to be sending very nice Christmas gifts to Peyton Manning.
Advantage: Bengals
Key to the Game:
The Bengals pass defense. I don’t think the Chargers can
have sustained success against this Bengals defense on the ground. Therefore,
if the Bengals can get pressure on Rivers, and/or frustrate his receivers, I
don’t see the Chargers being able to keep up with the Bengals. If the Bengals
cannot get to Rivers and struggle covering Rivers weapons (particularly Gates
and Woodhead), this could be a long day for the Bengals on the West Coast.
Prediction:
I think the Bengals know how important this game is and expect
a more focused and efficient offense coming out of the bye week (both in the
pass and run game). I don’t think the Chargers have a defense that can slow the
Bengals offense. I see the Bengals winning in a high scoring and entertaining
game. Essentially sealing the AFC North for the Bengals and dealing a huge blow
to the Chargers playoff chances.
Bengals 34, Chargers 24
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