Week 16: Bengals v Vikings - What to Look For

The Bengals can make the playoffs without this win, but for the team and fans psyche, I believe this is a must win. Let’s put it this way, if they want any shot at the two seed, it is a must win. If they want the 3 seed, it likely a must win. A loss today will likely leave the Bengals as the 4 seed (and a date with KC) at best, a chance at the 6 seed or, dare I say, even a chance to miss the playoffs.

 

 

So, here is What to Look For….

 

When the Vikings Run the Ball:

Vikings Running Attack: 10^th – 128.0 ypg

Bengals Run Defense: 5^th – 98.7 ypg

The Vikings have the best running backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, but he isn’t healthy. Though he is also one of the toughest running backs as well, having a sprained foot and groin is not ideal when facing the 5^th ranked rushing defense. I expect Peterson to play, but his effectiveness will be minimalized due to his injury and the Bengals tough front seven. If Peterson is not his super self, the Vikings are going to have a tough go on Sunday. With Peterson not 100% and the Bengals with a ball hawking run defense, I look for the Bengals to slow him down.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Vikings Throw the Ball:

Vikings Passing Attack: 22^nd – 225.9 ypg

Bengals Pass Defense: 7^th – 219.6 ypg

Two weeks ago with Newman healthy and Cassel being Cassel, I would have given the Bengals a huge edge here. However, with the game that Cassel and Jennings put on tape last week, combined with the Bengals injury issues in the secondary, this becomes a dicey matchup for the Bengals. The Vikings have receivers that can hurt you (Jennings, Simpson, Patterson, Rudolph) and the Bengals are going to have a lot of players in the secondary with limited experience (Kirkpatrick, Ghee, Lewis-Harris). The Bengals should be able to get pressure on Cassel and that will be huge. If Cassel has time, these receivers can expose what will likely be an overmatched secondary. While the one-on-one matchups in the secondary I give to the Vikings, I believe the Bengals will have a big enough advantage up front to cover up the secondary concerns. Not a big edge here for the Bengals, but an edge nonetheless.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

Bengals Running Attack: 19^th – 111.6 ypg

Vikings Run Defense: 20^th – 115.9 ypg

The Bengals run game took a step back last week, but much of that had to do with being down 21-0 before they blinked. It sounds like Whitworth will play, and going against the 20^th ranked run defense at home, I look for the Bengals run offense to get healthy again. Expect a big day from Giovani Bernard – in fact, I am predicting the Bengals first 100 yard rusher of the season.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

Bengals Passing Attack: 12^th – 250.7 ypg

Vikings Pass Defense: 30^th – 290.6 ypg

The Vikings come into PBS ranked 30^th against the pass and surrendering nearly 300 yards per game. Not good. Worse for the Vikings is seeing a passing attack that features 4 tough to cover receivers (Green, Jones, Sanu and Hawkins) and 2 big and capable tight ends (Eifert and Gresham). With Gruden and his desire to throw the ball 40+ times a game, look for the Bengals to put the ball in the air a bunch and have success doing so. The Bengals are averaging 30+ ppg at PBS and I expect that to continue.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Special Teams:

Kickoff Returns: Vikings – 1^st (33.3 avg, 2 TDs); Bengals – 8^th (26.8 avg, 0 TDs)  

Punt Returns: Vikings – 3^rd (13.1 avg, 1 TD); Bengals – 13^th (9.4 avg, 0 TD)

Kickers: Blair Walsh is 2/30 (86.7%) and ranks 19^th in the NFL. At 16/20 (80.0%) Nugent ranks 23^rd.

 

Punters: Vikings – Net 39.6 – 18^th; Bengals – Net 35.2 31st – with Buffalo; Punts inside the 20: Vikings t-26^th (18); Bengals T-12^th (24) – with Huber.

Kick Coverage: Vikings – 31^st (27.9 avg); Bengals 11^th (22.3 avg)

Punt Coverage: Vikings – 16^th (8.8 avg); Bengals – 18^th (9.2 avg)

The Vikings have the top kick returner and the 3^rd best punt returner and the Bengals are featuring a new punter who was fired by the Bills because of poor hang time. Not a good combination for the Bengals.

Advantage: Vikings

 

Coaches:

Leslie Frazier was Lewis’s first defensive coordinator and also his first canned defensive coordinator, so I would think Frazier has some extra incentive to beat Lewis. However, in 3.5 seasons, Frazier is just 20-32-1, despite having the best running back in football and will likely find himself on one of many hot seats at the conclusion of the 2013 season. Outside of the improbable 10-6 wild card run last year (compliments of the 2^nd best rushing season in the history of the NFL), Frazier is just 10-25. While Lewis has been more than frustrating to Bengals fans, he is still 88-84-1 with 4 playoff appearances.

Advantage: Bengals

Key to the Game:

Special teams. We saw how important special teams was last week. The Bengals offense and defense played well enough to win but the special teams lost the game. Now the Bengals have a new punter who was cut from the Bills due to poor hang time and poor directional kicking. His welcoming gift is the 3^rd ranked punt returner in the league. The Bengals kick coverage will be tested as well. Patterson is the top returner in the game, averaging 33.3 ypr and 2 TDs on the year. It is going to be very important for Nugent and Powell to limit the returns. If not, the Bengals defense may not matter.

 

Prediction:

This is a huge game for the Bengals and the Vikings have nothing but pride to play for. Although the Vikings have been playing well of late, I believe the Jungle and the balanced Bengals team will be too much for the Vikings.

Bengals 37, Vikings 24