Chubs in Happy Gilmore used to talk about “just easin the
tension baby!” Well Bengals fans, I am writing this to help “just ease the
tension baby!”
Would you rather be the team that wins the first few days of
free agency or the team that consistently wins games? When was the last time a
team that “won the offseason” even made the playoffs? Remember the Redskins
when they signed Hayneworth? They won the offseason. Remember the Eagles just a
few years ago? Asomugha, DRC, Vick, etc. According to Vince Young, they were a
Dream Team. I don’t recall teams not making the playoffs being considered Dream
Teams. How did the $100 million deal for Mario Williams work for the Bills? The
Texans went to the playoffs as a 3 seed and the Bills watched from home. Take a
look around at big first day signings - they are usually big first day cuts a
few years down the road (see Asomugha). Good teams and successful organizations
are not built through free agency, they are built through the draft (even though
the 800 “experts” working 24/7 at ESPN and the NFL Network seem to still be
unaware of this). Quick, who would you rattle off as the model organizations
known for long periods of success and short down times? Steelers, Patriots,
Giants, Green Bay, Baltimore (though with the Flacco signing, they may have
jumped the shark). Name the last big free agent any of those teams signed (not
one of their own). I will keep writing while you think. These organizations
have a history of drafting strong, not overpaying for free agents (their own or
other teams), and using free agency to fill holes with solid players at
reasonable prices. They also build around a core group of players and let high
priced non-core players leave (see Mike Wallace, James Harrison, Santonio
Holmes, Plaxico Burress, Ty Law, Asante Samuel, Randy Moss, Richard Seymour,
etc, etc, etc.). Did you think of a big
signing by these teams yet? No? I will keep writing.
The first day of free agency is like buying new technology
the day it comes out. Raise your hand if you do that? Remember when the plasma
tv first came out? They were about $4,000-5,000 for a plasma tv which now costs
$600. They also had lower picture resolution, less of a true black, and issues
with burnout and breakdown. You mean you didn’t wait in lines hundreds deep for
that? You didn’t want to overpay for a shiny headache? What!? Why not? You
waited until the price came down and they worked out the kinks didn’t you? You
are an idiot! Welcome to the first 3 days of free agency, where spoiled,
clueless billionaires believe money can solve their issues and money can buy
winning. Wanna bet the Dolphins fail to make the playoffs? I will. By the way,
the Dolphins have spent all this money yet have not re-signed one of the best
LTs in the game, Jake Long. In order to take advantage of the one route Wallace
can run (the go route), Tannehill needs to have time. Without Long, who is
going to make sure Tannehill is not dead?
Still jealous of the other team’s shiny new toys? Imagine
this: imagine if I told you the Bengals just signed a WR for $13 million who
was 34th in receiving yards in 2012 and is prone to drops? You would
be happy right? No, you would laugh yourself to death at Mike Brown’s
ineptitude. See Mike Wallace (836 yds, 55.7 yds/game). Imagine I told you the
Bengals just paid $7million/year for a MLB who has been a backup his whole
career, started 7 games last year only because of an injury in front of him,
and has 142 career tackles over his 4 year career. Again, you would cry
laughing at how stupid the Bengals are. See Dannell Ellerbe. The point is this,
spending for the sake of spending does not get success, it gets high priced
public humiliation. It means trying to buy square pegs for round holes.
Football is a game built on systems. Players fit systems. A player can be
wildly successful for one team (when in a system that fits him) and terrible in
a system that doesn’t fit him. Look at TJ Houshmanzadeh. How do you think guys
like Tom Brady, Terrell Davis, James Harrison, etc come from nowhere to be
stars? They talented players who are in systems which play to their abilities.
Sure, the Bengals have tons of money to spend (just like the
Dolphins), but the Bengals also have a ton of core players of their own that
need to be resigned. Reports had the Bengals with around $50 million in cap
space this year, but that is deceiving because of all their own players that
need to be re-signed. Laugh all you want at the Bengals re-signing a K, P, and
long snapper, but they didn’t dish out huge money on them and you only notice
these guys when they mess up. When was the last time you cursed a kick, a punt,
or a snap? Therefore, they are doing their jobs and are valuable. Andre Smith and Adam Jones need to still be
brought back. Michael Johnson was franchised ($11 million+). What about Newman?
What about Hawkins? Geno Atkins is up for FA next year. Do you let him become a
FA or lock him up now? Dunlap and MJ will be FAs next year. Do you lock up one
or both now? AJ Green will come due in 2 years, would you lock him up now or
wait? The Bengals have 8 picks in 2013, they are included in that cap space as
well. Now take a look at the Bengals $50 million and tell me what is left? It
is simple math. You can’t sign all of those guys as well as guys from other
teams. Which of those listed above are you letting walk for a current FA? Who
out there improves this team without strapping the team financially? They can’t
(nor should they) afford to drop $5-7 million on a safety. No safety is worth
that. Heck, the Bengals have made a huge leap in the division simply by doing
nothing. Baltimore has lost: Ray Lewis, Ellerbe, Krueger, Pollard, Boldin,
Birk, and possibly Reed. The Steelers have lost: Wallace, Colon, Mendenhall,
Harrison, and possibly Hampton. The Browns had a bad offense and signed a
couple defensive players…and are still the Browns. So you tell me, who has won
so far in the AFC North?
So, Bengals fans, grab my hand and step away from the cliff.
Let the undisciplined spenders blow their money on overpriced players, then
fill a few holes with quality players and locker room guys at good prices. I
know we are not used to it, but that is how the successful teams do it, and say
what you want about their post season success, they have made it to the
playoffs 3 of the last 4 years. Few teams can say that.
Prior to signing any other team’s players, the Bengals
priorities should be their own in the following order:
- Andre Smith
- Adam Jones
- Extend Atkins
Once these are done the Bengals can look outside. Here is
the positional breakdown and who might be worthwhile to take a look at:
Backup QB
The Bengals lost Gradkowski to Pittsburgh. Losing him doesn’t
hurt, however, I don’t like having a backup QB going to a division rival.
Potential fits for backup QB:
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Jason Campbell
- Matt Cassell
- Vince Young
- Rex Grossman
- Brady Quinn
RB
The bulk of the improvement at the RB position will come via
the draft. Expect the Bengals to add 2 RBs, either 1 by draft and 1 by FA, or 2
by the draft.
Potential fits for RB:
- Steven Jackson – may be a pipe dream, but for 1 year and under $4 million, I would do sign him.
- Mike Goodson – good back up and spot starter
- Beanie Wells – when healthy (a big assumption), he is a pretty good RB. At a low cost, he is worth the risk
#2 WR
I don’t see the Bengals signing a WR in FA. Reason? Sanu and
Jones. If they do, don’t fool yourself with Jennings – they won’t sign him (nor
should they).
Potential fits for #2 WR
- Darrius Heyward-Bey
- Laurent Robinson
OL
Other than Smith, not needed
DE
No thank you.
DT
No thank you
CB
There are some big names on the market, but none that are
upgrades at this point in their careers. I believe the Bengals will re-sign
Jones and Newman and not any other CBs.
S
Sure the Bengals need a safety and there are some decent
ones out there, however, spending big money on a safety could be devastating.
LB
Yes the Bengals need to address the LB position, but they
likely will in the draft and they need not overspend. I hope Rey leaves and from
there, would rank my desire for LB as follows:
Potential LB fits:
- Spikes – old, but is reliable and consistent
- Thomas Howard – I like Howard and would bring him back
- DJ Williams
- Conner Barwin
- Karlos Dansby
So again Bengals fans, take a deep breath, relax, take my hand,
and step away from the cliff. I know this is tough to believe as a Bengals fan,
but I think Mike and company have finally figured out how to build a successful
organization, and it is not through free agency.
