While
this may not seem like an important game, this is one the Bengals have to win
if they expect to make the playoffs. The way the schedule shakes out, the front
end of the schedule is friendly, while the backend of the schedule looks to be
very tough. Plus, if Ed Hochuli and his pipes are working the game, it must be a big game.
What to Look For:
When the Jaguars Run the Ball
With
Bob Bratkowski calling the plays in Jacksonville, I can assure you he will look
to establish the run. And, with MJD as his RB, he should be able to do so. MJD
is one of the best backs in the league. After winning the rushing title in 2011,
MJD is 2nd in the league this year despite a lengthy holdout. For
the Bengals defense, which is ranked 31st against the run, MJD has
to be a concern and their main focus. I believe the game turns on who wins this
battle. If the Jags get MJD going against the Bengals porous run defense, they
can control the clock and win this game.
Advantage: Jaguars
When the Jaguars Throw the Ball
Don’t
look for much here, especially not in the form of creativity and trickery…unless
of course you count the shuffle pass! I’m sure ‘Ol Bob will appease Bengals
fans by running at least one shuffle pass. Ok, Bratkowski bashing aside, I look
for the Bengals to try and force Gabbert to beat him. While the Bengals pass
defense is poor (22nd), so is Gabbert. Gabbert had a brutal 2011, and
though he has looked better in 2012, he still looks limited. While Gabbert’s 0
INTs are impressive and his 4 TDs are respectable, his 50.6% completion percentage
and 468 yards are not. Gabbert was 23-39 (59%) in Week 1 for 260 yds and 2 TDs
in an overtime game. In the 2 games since, Gabbert is 17-40 (42.5%) for 208
yds, including a 7-19 for 53 yds performance against Houston in Week 2. Is that
bad? Well, it ain’t good, I’ll tell you that. To make matters worse, 80 of
Gabberts 468 yds came on 1 play; take that play away, and on his other 78
attempts, he is averaging less than 5 yds per pass. As for WRs to watch, not
much there either. Gabbert’s top guy has 154 yds (80 yds on 1 play), his 2nd
guy (Robinson – 115yds – is out), and Blackmon has 4 catches for 31 yds. There
is not a WR on the Jags with more than 8 catches….AJ Green had 9 catches last
week alone. If the Bengals defense can stop MJD and force Gabbert to beat them,
I don’t think he can.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals Run the Ball
The
Bengals are 15th in rushing and the Jaguars are 30th in
run defense. While the Bengals have leaned more on the pass thus far, look for
the Bengals to run it enough to keep the Jaguars honest. With Green and
Hawkins, I expect to see a deep secondary and help on Green. That should leave
things open for BJGE. If he can take advantage of that space, he forces the
Jaguars to make a tough decision: Move someone up in the box to stop the run
and chance the Bengals deep ball, or let the Bengals run it down their throat
like the Texans did in Week 2 (216 yds).
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals Throw the Ball
The
Bengals are 4th in pass offense and the Jaguars are 21st
in pass defense. After last weeks’ aerial show, I expect to see a deep
secondary (maybe zone) and help all day on Green. Against similar WRs and TEs (Houston),
the Jaguars defense kept everything in front of them (nothing over 18 yds and
only 21 yds for Johnson). Look for a similar tactic against the Bengals,
forcing the Bengals passing attack to beat the Jaguars with short stuff. I
expect more passes to Hawkins in the slot, as well as Gresham and BJGE over the
middle. Even though Green is 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards, I
expect a quiet day from him, but big days for other WRs. However, I do expect
the Bengals to attempt to suck the Jaguars defense in with the run game and
underneath passes in order to take that one deep shot to AJ. With Green, one
may be enough.
Advantage: Bengals
Conclusion
Both
teams can run and neither can stop the run. Therefore, I believe this one comes
down to who can slow the run game the most and create the most in the passing
game. I believe that to be the Bengals. I don’t believe the Bengals defense is
as bad as it has played, and I don’t believe Gabbert can play as mistake-free
as he has so far. Also, the Jaguars have Bob Bratkowski calling plays, the
Bengals have Jay Gruden. Advantage: Bengals!
Prediction
I
think MJD will get his yards, but not enough to win the game. I believe the
Bengals force Gabbert to beat them, and force Gabbert into mistakes.
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