Riddle Me This

I don’t want to say “I told you so,” but, “I told you so.” My concern with Baker is his penchant for turning in nonsensical lineup cards and the fact that it could cost this team in the playoffs. Last night was a perfect example. 

Baker likes speed at the top of the lineup. Who doesn’t. But, where I have an issue with Baker is he puts speed at the top of the lineup even if that speed can’t hit (see: Drew Stubbs, Wily Taveras, Corey Patterson, etc.). His reasoning is that slow guys at the top of the lineup who get on base via walk or otherwise, just “clog the bases” (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2669). Well, put speedy guys up there with low OBP and problem solved. No one is on base, hence, no bases clogged. I checked historical baseball stats, there has still yet to be a guy (no matter how fast) who has found a way to steal first.

Baker’s latest head scratcher is Wilson Valdez. I am fine with Valdez playing. I understand Cozart will occasionally need rest, and in situations like now, when Cozart is hurt, someone has to play SS. But, that does not mean Cozart’s replacement also has to take his spot in the order….at least to common sense baseball folk. Dusty Baker believes otherwise. Here is what Wilson Valdez does well: he has decent speed, bunts very well and has a pretty good glove. Notice ‘hitting’ is not on that list. Valdez hits at a .196 clip. That is worse than two of the Reds starting pitchers (Leake and Latos). Meanwhile, Hanigan, who is third on the team in average (.287) and second on the team in OBP (.373) hit eighth. Makes sense right? Right. I get that Hanigan is not fast. And, in most lineups, he would not be a candidate for hitting second. But, in this lineup, he is. He gets on base, he can bunt, he is a great situational hitter and he rarely strikes out. With no one “clogging” the bases, the heart of your order has no one to drive in. How does a three hitter with a .337 average in 323 ABs only have 49 RBI? Easy, no one is on base to drive in. 

Last night we saw a lineup which included 3 guys batting .215 or lower…and only one of those was a pitcher (btw, Stubbs – batting .215 – hit 7^th, in front of Hanigan - .287). Surprising, that lineup got shut out.

Which leads me to the second issue from last night. For as long as I can remember, when the Reds face a rookie pitcher, they look clueless. Marty even brought it up last night. How does this happen? Last night it was Jacob Turner. Turner may end up becoming an excellent pitcher, but right now, he is a 21 year old rookie with at 5.90 ERA. World Series caliber teams  don’t get shut out by 21 year old rookies with a 5.90 ERA, generating just 2 hits over 7. Look, it is only one game, and despite the loss, the magic number still dropped to 7, but the way this offense disappears at times (Bruce is back into one of his slumps), combined with Dusty’s crazy lineup cards, concerns me heading into the playoffs.