Consider this the latest preview you will read for the week,
but probably the best, and with the birth of the 1 oz perspective, I am giving
myself a pass. Hopefully the Bengals and Marvin Lewis put more time in
preparing for this match up with the Broncos and Peyton Manning than I did
preparing for this preview.
When the Broncos Run the Ball
Neither of these teams are great running teams, but, Denver
is an effective running team, mostly because of their passing attack. While
McGahee has a respectable, but not overly impressive 554 yards, he averages 4.5
ypc. The threat of Denver’s passing attack opens things up for the Denver
running game, and I expect the same this week. Look for McGahee and the other
Broncos RBs to find running room as the Bengals defense focuses on Manning and
the Denver passing attack. The Bengals run defense did a good job of containing
MJD, Bush, and Richardson, all better backs than McGahee. But, in those games,
the Bengals weren’t concerned about the opponents QB or WRs. Manning >
Gabbert, Tannehill, and Weeden combined. When the Bengals had to worry about
the opponents QB and WRs (the Steelers game) they gave up 122 yards to Jonathan
Dwyer on 17 carries. That is concerning.
Advantage: Broncos
When the Broncos Throw the Ball
Cover your eyes, and hide the women and children, because
this could get ugly. Manning looks to be back to his old form, leading the lead
in QB Rating and top 5 in most every QB category, not what you want to hear if
you have a defensive secondary that has just 2 INTs and has been lit up by QBs
named Flacco, Weeden, and Tannehill. This is the best QB the Bengals have faced
and the best group of pass catchers as well. Manning for his career, is 7-0
against the Bengasl and has 17 TDs to just 3 INTs against the Bengals….oh, and
he is as hot as any QB in NFL history. Last week, Manning became the first QB in
NFL history to throw for 300+ yards, 70% completion, and 3+ TDs in 4 straight
games. I fear this record could extend to a 5th straight game. The
only hope for the Bengals to stop Manning is to get him on the ground. While
the Bengals are 3rd in the league in sacks (23.0), don’t expect that
to happen. Manning gets the ball out quick and has only been sacked 10 times in
7 games - only 2 QBs have been sacked less this year.
Advantage: Broncos
When the Bengals Run the Ball
The Broncos don’t have a great run defense (18th).
Lucky for them, the Bengals don’t have a good run offense (23rd). 7
games into the season, the Bengals are still looking for their first game with
a 100 yard rusher and they have faced run defenses ranked 30th (Baltimore),
25th (Jacksonville), and 24th (Cleveland). Nothing leads
me to believe this is the game that happens. Whether it is the RB, the OL, the
scheme, the play calls, or the game plans, the Bengals run game is not working,
and until they show me anything different, I will favor the opponent each week
in this category.
Advantage: Broncos
When the Bengals Throw the Ball
If the Bengals have a strength on offense, it is the passing
game. Lately, it has not been much of a strength (105 yards against Pittsburgh),
causing Lewis to call out Dalton publicly – it will be interesting to see what
effect that has. The Broncos come to town giving up just 213 yds/g in the air
(8th) and are averaging 1 INT/g. That does not bode well for Dalton
who has thrown at least 1 INT in every game this year and comes into the game
with 10 INTs, more than all but 2 QBs. The Broncos do not have a CB that can
cover AJ Green 1-on-1, but who does. Champ Bailey may not be the Champ Bailey
of old that could shut a top WR down by himself, he is still playing at a high
level and is an extremely smart CB. Look for the Broncos to try and take away
Green and force one of the other wideouts to beat them. Lately, the Bengals
other WRs and TEs have been unable to do that.
Advantage: Push
Coaching
Most teams are better coming off the bye week. Under Marvin
Lewis, the Bengals have struggled (3-5-1). Getting to face a red hot Peyton
Manning is not what a team on a 3 game losing streak needs. In his 10th
year, Lewis is 72-76-1, 1-4 against Denver, 0-3 in the playoffs and 2 division
championships. John Fox, in his 11th season, is 91-86, 2-2 against
the Bengals, 1-2 against Lewis, 6-4 in the playoffs with 5 division
championships and 1 conference championship. John Fox > Marvin Lewis.
Advantage: Broncos
Conclusion
Run Offense: Broncos > Bengals. Pass Offense: Broncos
> Bengals. Run Defense: Broncos > Bengals. Pass Defense: Broncos >
Bengals. Coaching: Broncos > Bengals. Front Office: Broncos > Bengals.
That is one depressing sweep. The Bengals need this win to keep any postseason
chances alive. Unfortunately, the Bengals and Lewis have not shown the ability
to win must win games and I don’t see how they win this one. As much as it
pains me, common sense tells me the Broncos win this one (which is just the
type of game the Bengals will surprise us in).
Prediction
Broncos 34, Bengals 21
No comments:
Post a Comment