Bengals v Chiefs Preview

This is a very dangerous game for the Bengals. Coming off an impressive win against the defending Super Bowl Champs, they face the worst team in the NFL. These games are always tough to get up for, especially after such a big win. Compounding the danger, is the fact that 1) KC is a tough and loud place to play; 2) they have nothing to lose; 3) they are coming off a game they should have won, where they outplayed the Steelers in Pittsburgh; 4) they have talent - they may not be good as a team, but they have dynamic players (Charles, Bowe, Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, etc); and 5) the Bengals have already shown they have the ability to lose to bad teams (see Cleveland and Miami).

When the Chiefs Run the Ball

According to every analyst, the key to winning every game is stopping the run. Don’t let your opponent run and you will win. How has that worked for teams the past few years against the Patriots? Or the Packers? Or Manning’s Colts? I am here to tell you that stopping the run is the key to winning some games much more than others. When playing the 2012 Chiefs, the key to winning is stopping the run. The Chiefs, thanks to Jamaal Charles comeback season, are 4^th in the NFL in rushing. Matt Cassel cannot beat you. Jamaal Charles can. In the Chiefs only win, Charles exploded for 233 yards…Chiefs QBs have not thrown more than 233 yards in the past 5 games. The Chiefs are bad, but there are a few ways the Chiefs can win this game. One way is Charles getting loose. Recently, the Bengals defense has played the run very well. I believe Jamaal Charles will have a decent game, but the Bengals will keep him from beating them.

Advantage: Push

When the Chiefs Throw the Ball

Laugh. When the Chiefs throw the ball, laugh. The Chiefs have 15 INTs this year to just 6 TDs. Let that sink in for a bit. This is a passing attack that even the Bengals secondary should be able to shut down, especially with the Chiefs #2 WR, Baldwin, out with a concussion.  With Baldwin out, the only guy the Bengals need to focus on is Dewayne Bowe. Look for the Bengals to put 8 in the box and a safety over the top on Bowe. If the Bengals can get pressure on Cassel like they did against Eli Manning, they will force turnovers. If Cassel needs to throw to win, the Bengals are in a great position. The one wildcard is Dexter McCluster. McCluster could get favorable matchups against this Bengals linebacking corp if the line can’t get pressure on Cassel. Still, I like the Bengals here.

Advantage: Bengals

When the Bengals Run the Ball

Speaking of laughing. The Bengals run attack has been brutal - 25^th in the NFL. Last week, I predicted more Brian Leonard. This week, I think we see more Peerman. BJGE is not giving this team much, and at some point, Gruden has to try and switch things up. The Bengals don’t need to be a top 10 running team, but they have to run effective enough to keep the defense from sitting on the pass. If not, Dalton’s passing lanes shrink and finding holes gets tougher for the receivers. While the Chiefs run defense is ranked 23^rd, my eyes tell me that they were not bad last week (77 yds to RBs). Until the Bengals run game shows me something,  the other team always has the advantage here.

Advantage: Chiefs

When the Bengals Throw the Ball

KC is 8^th in passing. That is slightly overinflated because teams have been up on them so often that they are killing the clock and not throwing (KC lead in a game for the first time all year last week). However, the Chiefs pass defense is no push over either. Less than 200 yards passing last week to the Steelers – regardless of the weather, is good. They have a line that can put pressure on the QB (heck, they almost killed Roethlisberger…literally) and some athletes in the secondary. With Hawkins suffering a knee injury in practice this week, the Bengals are going to need Gresham to continue to contribute. Maybe we see more of Sanu this week. In the end, I trust Green and Dalton will find their chances and the Bengals offense will put up some points.

Advantage: Bengals

Coaching

Not often that the Bengals have the advantage in coaching, but if ever a coach could look more clueless on the sidelines than Marvin Lewis, it would be Romeo Crennel. Crennel is a 26-40 in 6 seasons, including 2-6 versus Lewis. Plus, what coach has a speedy, shifty, explosive RB like Charles, and only gives him 22 catches through 9 game? Hillis comes in on 3^rd downs. Have they heard of a screen? When you have weapons which you don’t know how to use, you have a bad coaching staff. Take a picture, I am giving the advantage in coaching!

Advantage: Bengals

Conclusion

I see this game going 1 of 2 ways. 1) Either the Chiefs are still reeling from blowing a game they should have won in Pittsburgh, come home to a ‘Blackout’ being put on by the fans, and get crushed; or 2) the Chiefs come out angry about the game last week and play unlike the 2012 Chiefs we have seen up until this point. I see three scenarios where the Chiefs could win: 1) Jamaal Charles goes off; 2) big play(s) by the Chiefs special teams; or 3) critical turnovers by the Bengals offense. I feel this Bengals team is too focused after last week and won’t let any of these three things happen….plus, the Chiefs have gone 5 straight games scoring 16 points or less and have a league leading 30 turnovers. I see that continuing and I see the Bengals getting back into the playoff picture.

Prediction

Bengals 24, Chiefs 13