In week 10 the Bengals become just the 2nd team
to ever face the Manning brothers in back-to-back weeks. While that may be an
exciting opportunity for the Manning’s, that is not a good thing for the
Bengals. For what seems like the 5th week in a row, the Bengals are
in a “must win” scenario. When you need a win, the defending Super Bowl champs
are not who you normally want to see…especially coming off a heartbreaking
collapse. Making matters worse, the Bengals under Marvin Lewis are about 0-72
in “must win” games and this season, Bengals are 0-4 in what I would consider “must
wins.” While the Bengals realistic playoff chances may have passed them by, the
AFC seems very weak this year and at 4-5 the Bengals would still be in the
race.
When the Giants Run the Ball
With the exception of the Steelers game, the Bengals run defense
has been stout, shutting down the likes of MJD, Reggie Bush, Trent Richardson,
and Willis McGahee. Ahmad Bradshaw is a respectable NFL RB, but is certainly
less of a player than those listed above. While Bradshaw has 618 yards and is
on pace for 1,099, 1,000 yards rushing is no longer the standard which measures
good RBs. More telling about Bradshaw is that 316 of Bradshaw’s 618 yards have
come in 2 games. In the other 6 games he has played, he has just 302 yards for
a 50 ypg average. I expect Bradshaw to have another unimpressive game against
the Bengals.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Giants Pass the Ball
Eli Manning has been in a slump of late: 47% completion, 0
TDs, 2 INTs, and a 50.6 QBR in his last 2 games, including just 125 yards last
week. Fortunately for him, he gets to play the Bengals defense this weekend
which has been able to cure many QBs this year. While the Bengals CBs got their
first 2 INTs of the year last week against Peyton, the Giants WR duo of Cruz
and Hicks will present problems for the Bengals secondary and could have big
games. Also helping Manning, a secondary week at the safety position will be
missing their only legitimate safety, Reggie Nelson. What does that mean?
Likely a Taylor Mays sighting. What does a Taylor Mays sighting mean? Good
things for the Giants passing game. Unless the Bengals DL can get more pressure
on Eli than they did on Peyton, I expect Eli to get back on track against the
Bengals secondary.
Advantage: Giants
When the Bengals Run the Ball
The Giants are just 19th against the run, but the
BJGE and the Bengals OL have had troubles establishing any type of consistency
this season. With Brian Leonard healthy, and BJGE averaging just 3.3 ypc, look
for Leonard to get most of the snaps on 3rd down, as well as more
snaps on 1st and 2nd down. Without any threat in the
running game, teams are able to sit on the pass, rush Dalton at will, and
ignore the play action.
Advantage: Giants
When the Bengals Pass the Ball
AJ Green talked about holes in this Giants secondary.
Regardless of what Samari Rolle says, Green is correct. The Giants are ranked
26th against the pass and giving up 264 ypg...and the Steelers or
Cowboys would be the best passing game they have faced. I expect Green to have
a big game, as well as a re-emergence of the Bengals secondary receiving
options (Hawkins, Binns, and Gresham). If the Bengals get some contributions
from their other receivers, they have a chance in this one.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaching
Back in 2003 the Bengals were choosing between Coughlin and
Lewis. Since 2003, Coughlin is 88-60 and Lewis is 72-79-1. Advantage, Coughlin.
Coughlin = 2 Super Bowls. Lewis = 0 playoff wins. Advantage, Coughlin. Coughlin
is 36 games over .500 in his career, Lewis is 7 under. Advantage, Coughlin. While
it is true, Coughlin has a better organization and better resources, the fact
still remains, Coughlin > Lewis.
Advantage: Giants
Conclusion
I want to pick the Bengals. They have to eventually win a “must
win” game, right? I just have a tough time picking them over the defending
Super Bowl champs. My heart says Bengals, my head says Giants in a close one.
Prediction
Giants 27, Bengals 24
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