In 2012, the NFC North had 3 teams with 10+ wins. The 4th
team (Detroit), made the playoffs the year before. This is possibly the deepest
division in the NFL in 2013 and the hardest to predict. Is Minnesota for real?
Can GB continue to win while getting Rodgers sacked 50+ times? Can Cutler
finally live up to his hype? And can Detroit stop being Detroit? We look at
that and more.
1)
Green Bay
2012
Record: 11-5
2013
Prediction: 12-4
Confidence
in Pick: 75%
Losses:
Greg Jennings, Charles Woodson, Cedric Benson, Bryan Bulaga (torn ACL), Donald
Driver (retirement)
Pickups:
Datone Jones, Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin,
Reasons
for Optimism:
Aaron
Rodgers - This is a QB league and Rodgers is the best QB in this division
(maybe in all of the NFL). In 2012, Rodgers had 4,295 yards and not a single
1,000 yard receiver. Yes they lost Greg Jennings, but they really didn’t have
him 2012 either (8 games, 36 receptions, 366 yards and 4 TDs). Rodgers still
has a dangerous core of receiving options (Nelson, Cobb, Jones and Finley) and
now, with the drafting of Lacy and Franklin, he should have the best running
backs of his career.
Rookie
RBs – When has Rodgers ever had a competent running game? They thought they
might have solved the problem last year when they signed Benson. An early
injury derailed that, so GB looked to the draft. While Lacy is the higher pick
and bigger name, I actually like Franklin better because of his speed and
receiving ability. Either way, teams will have to respect Lacy and Franklin
which will make the passing attack that much more effective.
Big
Play Defense - While the defense causes me some concern, they were a top 15
defense in 2012 and with this offense, they just need to make some plays and
keep the opposing team within striking distance. This defense has the play
makers to do just that (Matthews, Raji, Jones).
Reasons
to be Cautious:
The
Offensive Line - In 2012, no QB was sacked more than Aaron Rodgers (51),
and if there is one thing that could quickly derail this team, it would be an
injury to Rodgers. Some teams are built well enough to withstand an injury to
their QB (at least for a short period) - GB is not one of them. Normally a
season ending injury to the starting LT (Bulaga) would be of concern, but when
a line gives up 51 sacks, could his replacement do much worse?
Safety
- The Packers decided to go with youth and not resign Charles Woodson. While I
understand this move, I did not like it. Woodson is a great and savvy leader
and given the pass happy offenses of Detroit and Chicago, along with the WR’s
they will face in this division (most notably Calvin Johnson and Marshall),
this could be a move the comes back to haunt them.
Overall:
This may be the best division in football
and the team I am picking has huge question marks at O-Line and safety, so to
say I have concerns with this pick would be an understatement. However, to me,
Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL and heads and heels above Cutler, Ponder and
Stafford (especially the former 2). In a league built around QBs, I default to
the best QB – Rodgers. However, if Rodgers were to go down, this could quickly
turn into a 4 or 5 win team because they rely on him that much.
2)
Chicago
2012
Record: 10-6; 3rd Place
2013
Prediction: 10-6
Confidence
in Pick: 30%
Losses:
Brian Urlacher, Lovie Smith
Pickups:
Marc Trestman, Martellus Bennett, Jermon Bushrod, Kyle Long, Jon Bostic,
Khaseem Greene
Reasons
for Optimism:
The
“Good” Jay Cutler – This is the Jay Cutler that has football “experts”
oozing each year because of his strong arm, gun slinger mentality, ability to
“make all the throws,” etc. It is the Jay Cutler who shows up a few times a
year and looks to be a top 5 QB in the NFL. Cutler can make all the throws, he
does have the physical tools to be a great QB, and he has the weapons to be
dangerous. If he can ever be this guy from week to week, the Bears could dust
off the Super Bowl shuffle under Cutler’s leadership.
The
“Good” Brandon Marshall – Like Cutler, Marshall has the physical tools to
be one of the best at his position. Like Cutler, there is a lack of consistency
in his game, some maturity issues, and a big question mark between his ears.
Improved O-Line – The Bears O-Line was dreadful
in 2012; so bad Cutler began assaulting his own lineman mid-game. While I am
not designating this revamped O-Line to be a top 10 line, they should be better
than their 2012 counterpart, and despite the lines’ struggles in 2012, the
Bears did still finish 10-6. If the 2013 line can keep Cutler alive and
upright, this team could be tough.
Matt
Forte – One of the best RBs in the league and a RB I feel was greatly
underutilized in 2012. With an improved O-Line, an offensive-minded coach, and
an improved passing attack, Forte may be poised for a big year in 2013.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
The
“Bad” Jay Cutler – This is the Jay Cutler that has caused his career record
to hover around .500 (51-42 -- .500 entering 2011) and his TD/Int ratio to
hover around 1 (1.36/1) – both very poor for a guy that has had a talent like
Marshall almost his entire career. Cutler’s teams in Denver were bad, prompting
him to take chances he may not otherwise have taken. However, since joining the
Bears in 2009, he has had a Super Bowl caliber defense which did not require
taking chances and simply needed a competent QB who could protect the ball
(this is a defense that made the Super Bowl just 3 years prior with Rex
Grossman at the helm). Cutler has done very little protecting the football in
his 4 years with the Bears, Cutler has just 19 more TDs than Ints (82-63 –
1.3/1 TD/Int ratio – actually worse than his TD/Int ratio in Denver 1.46/1).
Factor in rushing TDs (3) and his fumbles (33 in 4 years!), Cutler actually
turns the ball over 1.13 times for every 1 TD he scores (85 TDs to 96
turnovers).
The
“Bad” Brandon Marshall – Despite his physical gifts, Marshall continues to
fight consistency issues, maturity issues, and seems to display a big question
mark between his ears.
Firing Lovie – Usually 10-6 does not get a
coach fired. Not so in Chicago. While this team had some underperforming years
under Smith, he seemed to be loved in the locker room. Players liked Smith,
respected him, and played hard for him. If things start going bad, this locker
room could turn on Trestman.
Not
Re-signing Urlacher – Sure he wasn’t the same player he once was, but he is
an all-time great and an even better all-time leader. Urlacher’s on-field contributions paled in
comparison to his on and off-field leadership. With the firing of Smith and the
way the team parted with Urlacher, I believe this locker room is a ticking time
bomb which will explode if they do not get off to a quick start.
Hiring
Trestman – It is bad enough when you fire a well-liked players coach after
going 10-6, but when you replace him with a guy from the CFL who has not been
in the NFL for 10 years? I like the track record Trestman has with QBs, and he
did win 2 Grey Cups, but the CFL and NFL are two different critters (as Rocket
Ismail). While I think Trestman has the potential to develop a potent offense,
I don’t like this fit in a veteran locker room that is bitter that their coach
and leader (Urlacher) were let go. If things start going bad before he has won
over this locker room (like Smith had), this team could turn on him quick.
Overall:
This team has the potential to be a very
potent offense. Potential. Most of that potential rests on the ability of the
O-Line to keep Cutler upright and the ability of Cutler to distinguish players
wearing Bears jerseys from those wearing non-Bear jerseys. Maybe Trestman can
change this, but with Cutler’s attitude I don’t think this tiger can change his
stripes.
3)
Detroit
2012
Record: 4-12; 4th Place
2013
Prediction: 7-9
Confidence
in Pick: 25%
Losses:
Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Jeff B ackus, Steven Petermen, Gosder Cherilus,
Sammie Hill, Jason Hanson, Titus Young,
Pickups:
Reggie Bush, Glover Quin, C.J. Mosley, David Akers (or Havard Rugland), Nate
Burleson (back from injury), Ryan Broyles (back from injury)
Reasons
for Optimism:
Offensive
Talent - Talent alone, this is the most talented offense in the league
(O-Line excluded). In 2012, the Lions featured a QB (Stafford) who was 2nd
in the NFL with nearly 5,000 yards (4,967), a WR (Calvin Johnson) who led the
NFL with 1,964 yards, a big 1st round TE with 567 yards (Pettigrew)
and now they add one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league (Bush)
and get Ryan Broyles and Nate Burleson back. This passing attack will not be
able to be covered, and now with a dual threat like Bush in the backfield, the
Lions can take advantage of teams playing strictly the pass.
Defensive
Talent – With Suh, Fairley and Ansah, this defense could be dominant.
Could. Under Schwartz, this defense has been best known for lack of discipline
and selfishness. No defense with Suh and Fairley up the middle should be ranked
16th in the rush, but that is exactly what the Lions were in 2012.
If Suh, Fairley and Ansah continue to focus on sacks, this trend may continue.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Offensive
Lines - When taking into consideration only the skill positions (WR, TE,
RB) and QB, I believe this to be the most talented offense in the league
…however, skill positions are only as good as the line that creates their holes
or protects their QB, and therein lies the problem with the Lions. The Lions
O-Line (a below average squad at best in 2012) is tasked with protecting an
injury-prone QB on a pass happy offense and they lost both starting tackles.
Oh, and they play in a division that is home to Julius Peppers, Jared Allen and
Clay Matthews. That is concerning to me and should be concerning to Lions fans,
coaches and front office personnel alike.
Jim
Schwartz - Nothing is worse than a highly talented yet undisciplined team,
and that is exactly what the Lions have been the last few years. Discipline
starts from the top and it is clear that the Lions lack it at all levels of the
organization: Management – see the 1990’s and most of the 2000’s for a great
example (record, employing Matt Millen, continuing to employ Matt Millen,
drafting Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Titus Young, etc);
coaches: see Jim Schwartz vs Jim Harbaugh for a great example of lacking
discipline; and players: Suh stepping on players, Pettigrew shoving officials,
etc. Schwartz should be credited for taking over a 0-16 team and getting them
to the playoffs in his tenure, but I don’t see him as a long term answer.
Finesse
– Finesse teams don’t usually win in this league. The Lions are filled with
finesse players and seem to lack the hardnosed and disciplined players needed.
Even Fairley and Suh, despite their power, play more like finesse players.
Overall:
This team will put up a lot of points and
will be great for fantasy owners, but I don’t see them putting up a lot of
wins. I do not trust the coaches of this team, I do not trust the O-Line of
this team, I do not trust the D-Line of this team and I believe this team lacks
leadership. That is a recipe for more losses than wins. The talent on offense
will be enough to get this team close to .500, but not enough to mask their
weaknesses and make it to the playoffs. Chew on this for a minute. The Lions
made the playoffs in 2011 at 10-6. Since their 5-0 start in 2011, the Lions are
9-19 (includes their playoff loss), and those 9 wins came against teams with a
combined .396 winning percentage (2011 – 33-47; 2012 – 24-39-1) and included 1
victory over a team that finished with a record above .500 (Seattle).
4)
Minnesota
2012
Record: 10-6; 2nd Place
2013
Prediction: 6-10
Confidence
in Pick: 35%
Losses:
Percy Harvin
Pickups:
Greg Jennings, Cordarelle Patterson
Reasons
for Optimism:
Adrian
Peterson – Hard not to like a guy that runs for the second most yards in
NFL history just 8 months removed from tearing his ACL. Peterson is a physical
specimen and one of the few throwback workhorse RBs left in the NFL. Nothing is
more impressive than when a defense knows a RB is getting the ball yet cannot
stop him.
Jared
Allen – Possibly the most under-rated player in the NFL. For a guy that has
averaged an impressive 13.0 sacks per year over the course of his 9 year
career, you don’t here a lot about him. For reference, Reggie White averaged
13.2 sacks per year. Allen is 16th on the all-time sack list with
117.0. Another season of 13 sacks would move him up to 6th; 1.5
behind Michael Strahan. And the best part about Allen is not his sacks; for
most of his career Allen has shamelessly rocked a mullet and cutoff jorts!
Reasons
to be Cautious:
The
Vikings Offense – I believe the Vikings 2012 playoff run was a perfect
storm of good luck. Rarely do you see such an imbalanced offense (2nd
rushing; 31st passing) make the playoffs – at least not without a
dominant defense – which the Vikings did not have (16th overall).
Now the Vikings lost their leading receiver Percy Harvin. Greg Jennings and
Cordarelle Patterson do not make up for the loss of Harvin. Jennings was a
product of Aaron Rodgers and Cordarelle Patterson is a rookie with some
maturity issues (sounds like Jennings may have maturity issues as well).
Christian
Ponder – I have not seen anything thus far that makes me believe Ponder is
an everyday starting QB. He has been serviceable, but in 2012, he was the QB of
the league’s 31st ranked passing attack and has a career completion
percentage which is less than 60%. If he had any RB not named Adrian Peterson,
this team would not have sniffed the playoffs in 2013. In 27 games, Ponder has
4,788 yards and 31 TDs, that is less than a whole season for the upper echelon
QBs in the league. Eventually Ponder needs to carry his weight and not rely so
much on AP. At 28, who knows how much longer he will have an AP which can be
leaned on. 2013 is likely a big season for Ponder. A step backwards may result
in Minnesota exploring new QBs for 2014.
Vikings
Receiving Weapons – Greg Jennings was very good in GB. So was every other
receiver. Jennings will find out very quickly how much his numbers were a
product of Aaron Rodgers and not his own abilities. At a generous 6’0”, 195
lbs, and less than blazing speed, Jennings is not your typical #1 WR. This was
not a problem when he had Rodgers. It is likely to be a problem when he has
Ponder throwing the ball and Jerome Simpson on the other side. Speaking of
Simpson, as Bengals fans know, the guy has freakish talent but is as reliable
as a Kim Kardashian marriage. Cordarelle Patterson has great talent, but
maturity has been a knock on him and with a suddenly mouthy Jennings and an
unproven QB, will Patterson be kept in check? I like Kyle Rudolph, but, with
less than 500 yards in 2012, I don’t think he is going to take much coverage
away from the WRs.
Overall:
I believe this team made the 2012 playoffs
based on AP and a whole lot of Smoke and Mirrors. Rarely does a team with the
31st ranked passing attack and 16th ranked defense make
the playoffs. AP was just that good in 2012. I don’t see AP repeating that
season in 2013 and I don’t see marked improvement in the passing game and
defense.
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