Over the last 10 years (since Marvin
Lewis became the Bengals coach), the Bengals have dominated the Battle of Ohio
15-5. During those 10 years, the Bengals have an overall record of 81-81-1 and
just 2 seasons of double digit losses. In that same time period, the Browns are
53-110 and have 9 seasons of double digit losses. However, no matter how
lopsided the game looks on paper, the game itself if rarely lopsided. In those
10 years, the Bengals have outscored the Browns 516-402, or by an average of
just 5.8 ppg. The last 20 meetings have only seen 3 games decided by more than
14 points (2004-Browns 34-17; and 2006-Bengals 34-17 and Bengals 30-0). In
fact, take out 2006, and the Bengals have outscored the Browns by a less than 4
points per game (452-385). In the last 6 matchups, the Bengals are 4-2 but have
only outscored the Browns by 9 total points. So what does this all mean? Nothing
really. But chances are, the game will be closer than we think.
What to Look For….
When the Browns
Run the Ball:
This isn’t a joke. The Browns will try and run the ball at
some point Sunday. On the year, the Browns have a total of 215 rushing yards –
105 of which were traded to Indianapolis (Richardson), 34 of which have come
from a DB (Aubrey), 22 of which have come from a WR (Gordon) and 5 of which
have come from a QB (7 – Weeden, -2 Hoyer). That leaves 49 yards from actual
RBs. Their started for Sunday (McGahee) just joined the team last week and has
9 yards on 8 carries. So while the Browns “technically” have a run game, I am
going to say the Bengals (like all 3 teams before them), make the Browns run
game a non-factor.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Browns
Throw the Ball:
Hoyer has 150 career passes…54 of which came last week. With
that said, Hoyer was much better than I expected last week. 321 yards, 3 TDs
and a win against a playoff team from 2012 (Minnesota). However, it took him 54
passes to get there, he only completed 55% of his passes, he had a 68.5 rating
and threw 3 picks. He was also facing a defense ranked 29th overall
- 28th against the pass and had just 1 sack going into the game.
Suffice it to say, the Bengals 11th ranked defense (13th
against the pass) and their stout DL should provide a much more difficult
challenge. However, the Bengals must get pressure on Hoyer, something that
shouldn’t be a problem against a line that has allowed 14 sacks in 3 games. If
they don’t, the Browns and Hoyer have the weapons in Gordon, Little, Bess and
Cameron to take advantage of an injury riddled Bengals secondary. Ultimately,
with an inexperienced QB and a weak OL going up against a defense that had 51
sacks in 2012, the Bengals have a clear advantage again.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Run the Ball:
The Browns have a very good defense, and it starts with the
run defense. Despite playing Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson, the Browns are
ranked 7th against the run and held Rice and Peterson to 36 and 88
yards respectively (3.26 ypc) and 1 TD combined. In week 1, the Browns held the
Dolphins to just 20 yards on the ground! The Bengals have not exactly lit the
world on fire with their ground game either. In 3 games, the Bengals are ranked
just 21st in rushing with 272 yards. However, what the Bengals have
that the Browns other opponents did not, is 2 backs with distinctly different
skill sets (BJGE and Bernard). The Bengals will try and use 2 TE sets and a
decent dose of Bernard and his quickness to throw the Browns run defense. If
the Bengals cannot at least establish some sense of a run game, it could cause
issues for Dalton in the passing game. I think the Bengals establish enough of
a run game to keep the Browns honest.
Advantage: Push
When the Bengals
Throw the Ball:
Dalton has had success against the Browns with a 3-1 record
and 8 TDs to just 4 INTs, but he will be facing a good Browns pass rush (12
sacks) and Joe Hayden will be blanketing his favorite target (Green). In their
first ever meeting, Hayden held Green to essentially 0 catches (Green did have
1 catch for 41 yards and a TD – but that was when the Bengals snapped the ball
and no one was on Green). Since then, Green has gotten the best of Hayden
(11/27/11 – 4 rec, 110 yards, 0 TDs, long of 51; 10/14/12 – 11 rec, 135 yards,
2 TDs, long of 57). In fact, the worst game Green had against the Browns
(9/16/12 – 7 rec, 58 yards, 1 TD) came in a game Hayden missed with a suspension.
Despite Green’s success against Hayden, Hayden must still be respected as one
of the premier cover corners in the NFL and thrown at with caution. Green will
have plenty of opportunities 1-on-1 against Hayden, as I would expect the
Bengals to go with a lot of 2 TE sets. Going with the 2 TE sets accomplishes 3
things: 1) it neutralizes the Browns pass rush - either having 2 extra blockers
and making the line wider and the path to the QB longer, or by taking away 1 or
2 rushers by forcing them to cover the TEs; 2) it creates matchup advantages
for the Bengals – forcing at least 1 LB on TE matchup and probably creating
more 1-on-1 opportunities for Green; and 3) it spreads out the Browns stout run
defense and creates more room for BJGE and Bernard. Lastly, the Bengals have a
huge size advantage in the passing game. Of the Browns 8 secondary players,
only 1 (backup FS Johnson Bademosi) stands above 5’11”…and he is listed at 6’0”.
The Bengals will attack this small secondary with Green (6’4”), Sanu (6’2”),
Jones (6’2”), Gresham (6’5”) and Eifert (6’6”). When in trouble, a jump ball in
this game may not be a bad option.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaches:
In my recap last week, I forgot to give Marvin credit for
finally having a great challenge which lead to the game turning fumble returned
for a TD. Now you will see another rarity….me giving Marvin the edge in
coaching! Not really because of anything Marvin has done, but more so because
what Chudzinski has not done – he has only 3 games of HC experience and I was
not impressed with what he did in Carolina as the OC…plus, I can’t give a guy
with the name “Chud” the advantage in anything really.
Advantage: Bengals
Key to the Game:
Turnovers. Seems like a cop out, but with the Bengals DL and
weapons on offense, going against the Browns putrid OL and inexperienced QB, I believe
the only way the Browns have a legitimate chance against the Bengals on Sunday
is by forcing turnovers – lots of them - and either scoring on defense or giving
their offense short fields to work with. Seems like an easy recipe for the
Bengals, but this is a team that shot themselves in the foot in Chicago with 3
turnovers (leading to 14 points) and nearly choked away the game against GB
with 4 turnovers leading to 16 GB points.
Prediction:
On paper, this is a lopsided matchup, but the Battle of Ohio
seems to always see a competitive matchup. While I do not see a blowout, I don’t
see a particularly close game either. I see Bengals shutting down the Browns “run
game” and getting a lot of pressure on Hoyer and forcing him into mistakes.
Bengals 27, Browns 13
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