The NFC East is one of the toughest to predict in 2013. Not
because of talent, but rather because of consistency. What Giants team will
show up in 2013? Can Romo and Garrett stop underperforming and ever win
anything? Can RG3 repeat 2012 on a surgically repaired knee? And can he keep
from getting himself killed again? Can the Eagles win more than 2 games?
1)
New York
2012
Record: 9-7; 2nd Place
2013
Prediction: 10-6
Confidence
in Pick: 25%
Losses:
Ahmad Bradshaw, Osi Umenyiora, Chris Canty
Pickups:
Cullen Jenkins, Dan Connor, Justin Pugh, Mike Patterson, Josh Brown, Demontre
Moore, Ryan Nassib
Reasons
for Optimism:
Eli
Manning – I don’t believe there exists a two-time Super Bowl winning QB
that gets less respect and credit than Eli Manning. Sure, he can be wildly
inconsistent and frustrating, but the guy is good and has those 2 Super Bowl
rings to prove it. RG3 may be the most exciting QB in this division, but lets’
not forget that Eli is still the best QB in this division and is the reason the
Giants shouldn’t be considered anything but the favorites in the NFC East.
WRs
– When healthy, Cruz and Nicks make up one of the toughest WR duos in all of
the NFL. The issue the Giants have had is keeping them on the field together.
David
Wilson – While lesser known and lesser accomplished than Ahmad Bradshaw, he
had success in 2012 filling in for Bradshaw (along with Brown) and going for
5.0 ypc. I like Bradshaw, but he could never stay healthy. If Wilson can stay
healthy, he will provide an upgrade simply due to being on the field
consistently.
Pass
Rush – While they lost Umenyiora, the Giants should still be able to get
after the QB with Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Demontre Moore (possibly the
biggest steal in the 2013 NFL Draft). After all, pressure on the QB is the
easiest way to make a defense look good and an opposing QB look bad.
Tom
Coughlin – He rubs a lot of players the wrong way, but he has 2 Super Bowl
rings as references. Coughlin has more Super Bowl rings (2) than the rest of
the coaches in the NFC East have playoff wins with their current team (0).
Advantage: Coughlin and the Giants.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
They
are the Giants – Is there any team in the NFL more unpredictable than the
Giants since Coughlin took over? It seems every year they go through a 4 game
stretch where they look like the best team in the NFL and follow it up with a 4
game stretch where they look like the worst team in NFL. This inconsistency
cost them the playoffs in 2012 and has cost them a top seed in the playoffs
when they have gone.
Defense
– Other than JPP, I don’t see any play-makers on this defense. In a division
with Romo, Bryant, RG3, Vick, etc, that could be a recipe for trouble.
Overall:
This team does not impress me, but they
didn’t impress me either year they won
the Super Bowl either. The fact remains, Coughlin and Eli have more Super Bowl
rings (2) than the rest of the coaches and QBs in the NFC East have playoff
wins with their current team (0 playoff wins for coaches; 1 playoff win for
Romo). Advantage Coughlin, Eli and the Giants.
2)
Dallas
2012
Record: 8-8; 3rd Place
2013
Prediction: 10-6
Confidence
in Pick: 25%
Losses:
Dan Connor
Pickups:
Rob Ryan, Travis Frederick
Reasons
for Optimism:
Offensive
Talent – If talent won games, the Cowboys wouldn’t have any offensive
problems. They have talent. Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten could be
the most dangerous trio in the NFL; DeMarco Murray is a decent RB; and Romo is
the type of dual threat QB that makes all of his weapons even more dangerous.
The Cowboys issue during Romo’s tenure is not putting up big numbers, it is
getting those numbers to result in wins.
Tony
Romo – Romo takes a lot of heat, and a lot of it is well deserved. However,
I think Romo is a very good QB and believe a lot of his issues are a result of
the terrible offensive schemes he has played in. Any offensive playbook that
has left out the pages containing the run plays is not going to help a QB. I
have a tough time thinking a team can’t win with a QB who throws for 4,900
yards, 28 TDs. However, it would behoove Dallas, and Romo, for the coaches to
call a run play every now and again.
Anthony
Spencer and DeMarcus Ware – The best way to make a defense look better than
they are is to put pressure on the QB. Spencer and Ware can do that. In 2012,
they accounted for 22.5 sacks (Ware 11.5; Spencer 11.0). The problem is the
rest of the Cowboys only accounted for 11.5 sacks for the entire season.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Tony
Romo – Despite his big numbers, he seems to find a way to make big mistakes
in the most critical situations (19 INTs is too many).
Dez
Bryant – The guy has all the physical tools to be great and his numbers
have been good, but I don’t think there is a player in the NFL whom I trust
less than Bryant. The guy has a track record of terrible decisions and untimely
drops (11th in the NFL with 9 drops). Somehow the Cowboys still seem
to develop a game plan revolving around Bryant more so than the more reliable
Miles Austin and Jason Witten.
Jason
Garrett – There is not a coach in the NFL less deserving of his position
than Jason Garrett. He was Jerry Jones’ golden boy and handed the job in 2011
and hasn’t done anything but underperform since – career 21-19 record, 0 post
season appearances. As difficult as it may be to believe, Garrett’s game
management and sideline demeanor make Marvin Lewis look like Vince Lombardi.
Garrett must have something on Jones, because rather than fire him, Jones
decided to keep Garrett but take away his play calling ability. The players
don’t respect Garrett because they know he doesn’t call the shots (Jones does).
The removal of his play calling duties has just proven this yet again.
Monte
Kiffin – Kiffin was a great defensive coordinator for a long time with the
Bucs. But that was four years ago. His time in college was less than stellar
and he is now 73 years old. I don’t see this as a good hire. The defense wasn’t
very good last year (19th), but I don’t think Rob Ryan was the
issue. The issue is the lack of playmakers (-13 in TO differential). Outside of
Ware and Anthony Spencer, the defense is very average.
Overall:
Picking a Romo and Garrett lead Cowboys
team to win 10 games is a questionable decision at best. However, this team has
too much talent on offense for me to pick them to win less than 10 games. I see
the Cowboys finally making it back to the playoffs, but only as a wildcard.
3)
Washington
2012
Record: 10-6; 1st Place
2013
Prediction: 7-9
Confidence
in Pick: 25%
Losses:
Pickups:
EJ Biggers, Pat White
Reasons
for Optimism:
RG3
– He took the league by storm in 2012 and looked like anything but a rookie. He
is definitely one of the most exciting players in the NFL and if healthy, could
lead this team back to the playoffs. He has the rare combination of running ability
and great passing accuracy which makes playing against him so difficult.
Alfred
Morris – No team got more production in 2012 from two rookies than
Washington. Morris proved to be a legit NFL RB (1,613 yards and 13 TDs) and
Shannahan has proven that when he has a stud RB, he can win games.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Mike
Shannahan – While he does have 2 Super Bowls rings, those came with John
Elway at QB and Terrell Davis at RB. In his 15 seasons without Elway as his QB,
Shannahan has averaged 8.5 wins per year (120-108). Hardly great numbers. More
concerning has to be how often his scheme put RG3 in harm’s way in 2012. RG3 is
not a big guy (6’2” 217 lbs) and cannot continue to take the hits he took in
2012. He was lucky to make it as long as he did before getting injured. I still
remember when the Redskins played the Bengals, I thought RG3 may have been
killed 3 different times throughout that game. This team’s success is tied
directly to RG3 and if he isn’t healthy, this team doesn’t stand a chance.
RG3
– Along with the health concerns, I also question his decision making.
Regardless of the scheme, RG3 did a fair amount of putting himself in harm’s
way in 2012 as well. Then you have the odd and immature preseason squabble in
the media regarding Shannahan’s decision not to play him. There seems to be
either a lack of understanding, lack of communication, or lack of respect (or
all of the above) between Shannahan and RG3. Either way, not a good thing to
have between coach and QB. RG3 needs to realize his value to this team and not
put himself in harm’s way. Right now, he doesn’t seem to understand that, and
that is an issue.
Lack
of WRs – I know Garcon and RG3 seemed to have a decent connection in 2012,
but I think the Redskins have one of the weakest receiving corps in all of the
NFL (Garcon, Hankerson, Moss). The leading receiver on the Redskins (Garcon)
had 633 yards. The weak receiving corps will cause RG3 to take off and run more
often and hence be hit more often. Exactly what the Redskins don’t want.
Secondary
– Any secondary that feels the need to start DeAngelo Hall is in trouble.
Especially if that secondary will be tasked with covering the likes of Bryant,
Miles, Witten, Cruz and Nicks. They better reach the QB, because if not,
receivers are likely to be running open in this secondary.
Overall:
I think 2012 was a perfect storm for the
Redskins. The Redskins needed breakout years from RG3 and Morris, combined with
the Giants and Cowboys underperforming just to get to 10-6. I don’t see all of
those stars aligning again in 2013. I think 7 wins is generous for this team in
2013.
4)
Philadelphia
2012
Record: 4-12; 4th Place
2013
Prediction: 3-13
Confidence
in Pick: 50%
Losses:
Andy Reid, Jeremy Maclin (ACL), Nnamdi
Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Pickups:
Chip Kelly, Lane Johnson, Connor Barwin
Reasons
for Optimism:
Chip
Kelly’s Offense – At Oregon, Kelly ran the most exciting offense in
college. Whether it works in the NFL remains to be seen. What is certain is
that it will be exciting to see. With Michael Vick operating under Chip Kelly’s
offensive creativity, it could be very fun to watch.
Michael
Vick – Vick’s athletic ability always gives the Eagles a chance to win any
game. A chance.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Chip
Kelly – I loved Kelly in college and I can’t wait to see if his philosophy
can work in the NFL. With that said, it is an uncertainty at best. He has no
NFL experience, an untested offensive scheme, an inaccurate, injury and
turnover prone QB in Vick, and a ticking time bomb in his locker room (the
whole Cooper saga)…oh yeah, and a football team went 4-12 in 2012 and lost more
talent than they picked up in the offseason. Not a recipe for success.
Michael
Vick – Decision making, accuracy and leadership. The three most important
things for a QB. Decision making and leadership are still question marks with
Vick. Accuracy is not. To say Vick is inaccurate would be nice. In his 10 NFL
seasons, Vick has a 56.3% completion percentage in a league where 60% is the
minimum. In fact, Vick has more years under 50% completion percentage (2) than
years above 60% (1). What most fail to realize is that Chip Kelly’s offense is
predicated on an accurate QB. Vick does not fit that description.
WRs
– Jeremy Maclin’s ACL injury really hurts this team. DeSean Jackson, while
extremely talented, is a locker room cancer and could be disastrous for Chip
Kelly. Remember when DeSean Jackson decided he was no longer going to run
routes until he got a new contract? What is he going to do if he doesn’t like
Kelly’s system? Riley Cooper is a decent WR but his presence may pull this team
apart. And then you have Jason Avant. A decent WR, but now Kelly is trying him
at CB?
Secondary
- Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique
Rodgers-Cromartie were disappointments in Philly, but they did account for 50%
of the teams’ INTs (4 of 8) and are better than what replaces them. This
secondary lacks talent and playmaking ability, a very bad combination for a
team that shares a division with Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, DeSean
Jackson, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.
Overall:
Maybe Chip Kelly takes the NFL by storm, but
I just don’t see it. And I don’t see how this team is any better than the worst
team in the NFC. They shared that designation with Detroit in 2012, but compare
the two teams’ rosters and it’s not even close. This team was 4-12 with Reid,
Maclin, Asomugha and DRC; I don’t see the addition of Kelly, Barwin, Lane
Johnson and Matt Barkley improving this team…or even keeping the talent level
equal to that of 2012.
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