The west seems to have a very defined pecking order. Denver
is heads and heels above the rest. KC is very talented. San Diego is mediocre.
And Oakland is brutal. Can Manning continue his run of dominance? Can KC make a
huge one year turnaround? Can Rivers regain his form of the late 2000’s? And,
can Oakland win a game?
1)
Denver
2012
Record: 13-3; 1st Place
2013
Prediction: 14-2
Confidence
in Pick: 80%
Losses:
Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller (6 games), Tracy Porter, Jason Hunter, Brandon
Stokley, Willis McGahee
Pickups:
Wes Welker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Shuan Phillips, Quentin Jammer, Louis
Vasquez, Terrance Knighton
Reasons
for Optimism:
Peyton
Manning – If Manning wasn’t good enough with Thomas and Decker, now he has
Welker. I am really excited to see these two play together and what type of
numbers they can put up. I believe this offense may be the most potent and most
balance offense Manning has ever played with. That is a scary thought for a QB
3rd all-time on the passing yards list, 2nd all-time in
TDs, 3rd all-time in rating and 5th all-time in
completion percentage. If Manning had 37 TDs and 4,600+ yards in 2012 without
Welker, imagine what those numbers may be in 2013?
Wide
Receivers – There is not a better set of WRs in the league. In fact, these
3 could be one of the best trio of WRs ever. Add in Jacob Tamme and Joel
Dreesen at TE, and it is impossible to cover them all…and Manning will find the
guy that is open.
Running
Backs – The Broncos elected not to bring back their top RB from 2012
(McGahee) and are better off because of it. Expect to see Montee Ball as the
main back, and why not? Ball had 77 TDs in his college career. Over his last
two years at Wisconsin, Ball had 55 TDs and 3,753 yards. He doesn’t offer much
receiving out of the backfield, but with this passing attack, he should find
plenty of room to run, especially off play-action fakes.
Defense
– They lost Dumervil and Miller is out for the first 6 games, but Miller will
be replaced by Shuan Phillips (9.5 sacks) and the Denver secondary (though
old), should be solid with Bailey, DRC and Quentin Jammer.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Loss
of Dumervil/Von Miller’s Suspension – While Phillips can lessen the blow of
the loss of these two, make no mistake, the Denver front 7 is not as good as it
was in 2012 with these two missing. However, the defense should have the luxury
of playing most games with the lead.
Manning’s
Age/Health – Other than the neck injury, Manning has been extremely durable
over his career, however, anytime you have a 37 year old QB, injuries have to
be of concern.
Age
at Cornerback – They have big first round names (Bailey, DRC, Jammer),
however, age is a bit of a concern with Bailey (35) and Jammer (34).
Rahim
Moore – Any team that has Rahim Moore listed atop their safety depth chart
worries me. I have never seen a safety take a worse angle and make a more
boneheaded play on a ball than Moore did in the 2012 playoffs.
Overall:
I really like this Denver team, however,
the 14-2 prediction is as much about the weakness of the AFC competition as
much as it is about how good Denver is.
2)
Kansas City
2012
Record: 2-14; 4th Place
2013
Prediction: 11-5
Confidence
in Pick: 30%
Losses:
Matt Cassel, Romeo Crennel
Pickups:
Andy
Reid, Alex Smith, Eric Fisher, Anthony Fasano, Travis Kelce, Tony Moeaki
(return from injury)
Reasons
for Optimism:
Overall Talent – not something you associate with
many teams coming off a 2-14 season, but the Chiefs are different. Think about
this, the Chiefs put 5 players in the Pro Bowl in 2012 (that’s 2.5 players per
win) and then added two number 1 overall picks at the two most valuable
offensive positions (QB-Alex Smith and LT-Eric Fischer-though he will start at
RT).
Alex Smith – Rarely does a QB lose his job due to
injury (except Drew Bledsoe), especially a former number 1 overall pick, but
that is exactly what Smith had happen to him in 2012. Colin Kaepernick played
well in Smith’s absence, but Smith’s play did not lose him the starting role in
SF. Smith started 8 games before being knocked out of the lineup with a
concussion. When Smith went down, SF was 6-2 and Smith led the NFL in
completion percentage (70.2%), was 2nd in the NFL in Passer Rating
(104.1), and had 13 TDs to only 5 picks. With the exception of picks and
rushing TDs, Smith outplayed Kaepernick in every category. However,
Kaepernick’s freakish athleticism is something Smith could not match, and the
Chiefs were the beneficiaries of Smith being jettisoned by SF. In 2012, the Chiefs
QBs accounted for 30 turnovers and just 8 TDs. Smith’s acquisition drastically
improves the Chiefs offense and increases the value of Jamaal Charles and
Dwayne Bowe exponentially (and all of KC’s weapons for that matter).
O-Line – With Brandon Allen at LT and #1 overall
pick Eric Fischer at RT, the Chiefs may have one of the best OL units in all of
the NFL. The 40 sacks the Chiefs gave up in 2012 are deceiving and more the
result of the poor QB play of Cassel and Quinn. The addition of an actual NFL QB
(and Fischer) should greatly reduce these numbers.
Jamaal Charles – Charles is one of the best RBs in
the NFL. In 2012, Charles was coming back from an ACL tear and was the only
offensive option teams focused on, yet he still rushed for 1,509 yards. Now he
has a coach in Andy Reid who builds his offense around small quick backs – take
a look at the stats put up by Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy over the years.
Scary to think what Charles can do in 2013 with a good QB and a system likely
to be built around him.
Receivers – Other than Bowe (and even he may be a
stretch), there is a lot of unproven talent at the WR and TE position. However,
there is talent. Donnie Avery gives them an explosive play option; Dexter
McCluster gives them a gadget guy and slot WR; and Moeaki (if he can play), is
a pretty good TE. And I go back to the difference a guy like Alex Smith will
make - all of these WRs and TEs will look exponentially better simply because
of the presence of Smith.
The Defense – The numbers from 2012 may not look
impressive, but they never will when your offense turns the ball over 40 times!
You can’t have your defense on the field that much and expect good numbers.
However, with a greatly improved offense and 5 top 20 picks on defense
(Jackson, Poe, Hali, Johnson, Berry) including 2 top 5 picks (Berry and
Jackson), this is a unit that has top 10 potential. Derrick Johnson is a stud
MLB; Eric Berry is a Pro Bowl safety; Tamba Hali is an elite pass rusher;
Flowers and Smith are solid CBs; and the DL has 2 top 11 picks (Jackson and
Poe).
Andy Reid – His last few years in Philadelphia were
disappointing to say the least, but Andy Reid is still one of the best head
coaches in the NFL and he has not had this much talent since his 2004 Super
Bowl runner up Eagles team.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Andy Reid - The
talent is there, however, as we have seen in Philadelphia the past few years
(Reid’s teams btw), talent alone does not equate to winning. Players have to
play well together and have to buy into the coaches system. And, while Reid is
a great coach, he is installing a whole new system. How fast this team learns
that system and gels as a unit, will determine if their talent will blossom
into a good 2013 or another year of lots of Pro Bowlers and not many wins.
Alex Smith - While
Smith is miles better than Cassel and Quinn, he still is starting from scratch
with his receivers, his coach, and Reid’s system. And, while Reid is a great
coach, he is installing a whole new system. How fast this team learns that
system and gels as a unit, will determine if their talent will blossom into a
good 2013 or another year of lots of Pro Bowlers and not many wins.
Jamaal
Charles Health – Charles is one of the best backs in the league and this offense
will revolve and go with Charles. However, he has to stay healthy. 2 years ago
he blew out a knee, and now he has another injury. If he stays healthy, I
really like this team. If he doesn’t this could be a bad pick.
#2
Receiver – I had high hopes for Baldwin. Apparently he can’t catch (and SF
is not worried about that). The Chiefs however should be worried about the #2
WR role. Sure, they got Jenkins back, but there is a reason the 49ers were
willing to part with him as well.
Overall:
The Chiefs are the hot pick amongst many to be
the big risers in 2013, and I agree. Rarely do you see a team go 2-14 have so
much talent and the addition of Smith and Reid alone should add 4-5 wins to
this squad. While I like this team, Peyton Manning is still in Denver and he
has Welker, Thomas, and Decker to throw to – all 3 of which have proven more
than any WR on KC’s roster.
3)
San Diego
2012
Record: 7-9; 2nd Place
2013
Prediction: 6-10
Confidence
in Pick: 20%
Losses:
Melvin Ingram (ACL), Norv Turner
Pickups:
Danny Woodhead, Dwight Freeney, Mike McCoy, Max Starks, DJ Fluker, Mantei Teo,
Keenan Allen
Reasons
for Optimism:
Improved
OL – By no means is Max Starks a great LT and DJ Fluker is a rookie, but
they have to be better than what the Chargers had. In 2012, Rivers was sacked
49 times! That is way to many if you want to win….or keep your QB alive.
Phillip
Rivers – It wasn’t long ago he was in the “elite” QB discussion. He has 4
years of 4,000+ yards and has thrown for 3,500+ in 7 of his last 8 seasons. He
has thrown 21+ TDs in each of his last 8 years, has two 30+ TD seasons, and has
averaged 29 TDs over the past 5 years. Those are good numbers. Unfortunately,
the OL has had issues protecting him recently – 117 sacks over the last 3 years
(39 per year, including 49 in 2012). As a result, Rivers turnovers have
increased and his rating decreased as the sacks pile up. If they can protect
Rivers, he can get back to that “elite” level QB.
Ryan
Mathews – Mathews has never been able to stay healthy, however, if he can,
he still has the ability to be a quality RB.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
O-Line
– They should be better, but they have yet to actual show it, and until they
do, they are still a concern because Rivers was sacked 49 times in 2012.
Phillip
Rivers – Sure he hasn’t had the protection, but over the last 3 years,
Rivers has averaged 24 turnovers per year…all by himself! No team can win with
their QB turning the ball over 1.5 times per game.
Lack
of Play-Makers – This team lacks play-makers on both sides of the ball. In
fact, I don’t see a single guy I would consider as explosive. While the defense
ranked a respectable 9th overall in 2012 in terms of yards, but just
16th when it came to ppg. There is not a single guy on offense or
defense that will scare opposing OC’s or DC’s.
Mike
McCoy – He received a head coaching job because Peyton Manning came to
Denver. I too would look like a great OC if Manning was my QB, because after
all, it is Manning that is the OC. Maybe he will do great, but the only reason
he got a HC job is because of Manning.
Overall:
The Chargers have got to be one of the most
underperforming teams of the last 10 years. A 6-10 record and 3rd
place finish in 2013 would not be an underperformance by the Chargers, it would
simply be playing to their level - this team is 3rd most talented
team in this division.
4)
Oakland
2012
Record: 4-12; 4th Place
2013
Prediction: 3-13
Confidence
in Pick: 50%
Losses:
Carson Palmer, Matt Flynn, Phillip Wheeler, Richard Seymour, Tommy Kelly,
Desmond Bryant
Pickups:
Matt Flynn, Charles Woodson, Kevin Burnett, Nick Roach, Kaluka Maiava, Pat
Sims, Tracy Porter, Mike Jenkins
Reasons
for Optimism:
Darren
McFadden – When healthy, he is a stud. If he can stay healthy, he can take
a lot of pressure off whomever is the Raiders QB.
Improved
Defense – In terms of yards (9th) the 2012 Raiders defense was
pretty good. In terms of ppg (27.7) and takeaways (19), the defense was not
very good. With the pickups they made, this defense should be improved in 2013.
Reasons
to be Cautious:
Darren
McFadden – He is one of the most dynamic backs in the NFL…when healthy. The
problem is, he appears to be made of glass. In his 5 seasons in the NFL,
McFadden has never played 16 games, in fact, he has averaged only 11 games per
year. If McFadden can’t stay healthy, this team may be historically bad.
QB –
Flynn has obviously not shown much in the preseason, otherwise there would not
be a debate of whether Terrell Pryor or Flynn should start. If you even let the
thought of Pryor starting cross your mind, you are in trouble.
Lack
of Play-Makers – This team has 0 play-makers that can be counted on
(McFadden would count if he could stay healthy). That is a problem.
Coach
– Quick, who is the Raiders HC? I didn’t know either. So I looked it
up…Dennis Allen. I still don’t know who this cat is. If you said ‘Dennis Allen’
or showed me a picture of Dennis Allen, I wouldn’t have a clue who that was.
Management
– This is a management team that traded a 1st and 2nd
round pick for Palmer and then 1.5 years later, traded Palmer and a 7th
round pick for a 6th round pick and then traded a 5th
round pick for Matt Flnn. Not the types of moves that lead to success.
Overall:
This is a bad team and could be historically bad.
The makeup of this team has the ability to make a run at 14-15 losses. They are
just that bad.
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