Breaking Down Gruden’s Thursday Night Breakdown

Passing the blame after the fact is easy and fun. Lord knows there is plenty of blame to pass around for Thursday night’s debacle. But I want to focus on Jay Gruden. The Bengals may have had 465 yards of offense, but this very well might have been Gruden’s worst game as an OC. Five sequences on Thursday really bugged me about Gruden – 4 of the 5 could have won the game if Gruden didn’t have a brain fart, and the fifth lost the Bengals the game. Let’s take a look:

 

1) Opening Series

The strength of the Bengals is the passing game. The Dolphins came in with the 20^th ranked pass defense. The Bengals came off a week where they torched the Jets with 5 passing TDs. And they open the game with 3 straight runs? To BJGE nonetheless? Not surprising, they went 3 and out, wasting good starting field position and a good chance at opening drive points.

 

2) End of the Half

With about 2 minutes left in the half, Bengals down 7-3, they have a 1^st and 10 at their own 46. The first play is a pass to Bernard for 7 yards to the Dolphins 47. 2^nd and 3 they threw an incompletion to Green. Then on 3^rd and 3, about 15 yards from FG range and about 1:30 left, Gruden calls for a go route to Dane Sanzenbacher? I like Sanzenbacher and all, but he is your 5^th/6^th WR and the deep ball is not his game. A first down would have let the Bengals run the clock out for the half and possibly get a FG or TD. Instead, the incompletion stopped the clock and Miami would eventually get a FG right before half (what would turn out to be very important).

 

3) The Bengals go ahead drive

Game tied 17-17; 1:35 left; Miami had 1 TO left; and the Bengals facing a 3^rd and 4 at the Dolphins 36. A FG from there is 1 yard shy of Nugent’s career long - and he is not a good kicker from 50+(9/19). A first down would get the Bengals inside Nugent’s comfort zone and allow them to kill the clock. Instead, Gruden dials up another long pass that falls incomplete. Nugent made the FG, but left the Dolphins 1:24 and a TO…which would prove to be too much time. If they were ok with Nugent attempting that kick, and clearly they were, then why not run the ball, make the FG a few yards closer, and either kill 35-40 more seconds, or, force the Dolphins to take their final timeout. A 2 yard run would have given Nugent a 52 yard attempt and left the Dolphins with 1:20 and 0 TOs, or about 45 seconds and 1 TO. Either way, likely not enough time to get into FG range. Because they left the Dolphins with 1:24 and 1 TO, the sack on 1^st down by MJ was not game ending. The Dolphins were able to use the final TO and compose themselves for a final drive.

 

4) Bengals Opening Possession in OT

A FG wins it. Of the first 5 plays, the Bengals ran twice with BJGE for 2 yards (-1 and 3) and passed 3 times for 32 yards (Dalton was 3-3). So, 1^st and 10 from the Dolphins 41 (6-10 yards from good FG range), Gruden breaks the rhythm with a run (2 yards). Dalton then goes 0-2 and the drive stalls at the worst possible spot – you can try a 57 yarder or play field position. I don’t blame Lewis for his decision. In the history of the NFL, only about 30 FG have been made from 57+. If he tried the 57 yarder and Nugent missed (as he likely would have) we would have all crucified him for giving the Dolphins the ball in a sudden death situation 20 yards from FG range, going against a defense without Atkins, Hall or Maualuga.  

 

5) Final Possession

On the final possession, 2^nd and 10 from the Bengals 8, Gruden calls a deep ball again – why not? It had clearly been so successful up to this point. Surprisingly, the ball hit the turf (as the deep ball had all night) and left the Bengals with 3^rd and 10 from the 8…and Gruden calls a shotgun snap that takes Dalton into the endzone for the game winning safety. There is no more dramatic way to end a night of brilliant play-calling than a walk-off saftey.