At 3-5, this is clearly not the same Ravens team that got on
a role last January and won the Super Bowl. The defense is still playing at a
high level, but the offense has really taken a hit. Boldin is gone, Pitta is injured,
Flacco is erratic, and Ray Rice is averaging 2.7 ypc and is on pace for 518
yards (if you drafted him in fantasy football, you are well aware of his
struggles). On paper, the Bengals should win easily. But, the games aren’t
played on paper and AFC North games are almost always close games. Not to
mention, this basically a must win for the Ravens. A loss would drop them to
3-6, 3.5 games back of the Bengals with 7 to play, and needing a 7-0 finish just
to get to 10 wins. A win however, would pull the Ravens within 1.5 and bring
the Bengals back to the pack, suddenly making the AFC North a little more
interesting. I like interesting, but not when it comes to the Bengals division.
So, here is what to look for in Baltimore…
When the Ravens
Run the Ball:
Not a whole lot. The Ravens are 22nd in the NFL,
running the ball only 38% of the time (http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-play-pct)
- however, it is worth noting, the Ravens run the ball 47% of the time in home
games. Either way, the Bengals have the 10th ranked run defense, the
Ravens are ranked 29th in run offense (just 71.6 ypg), and Ray Rice
is averaging just 2.7 ypc. Even without Atkins, I like the Bengals in this
matchup. Atkins loss will be felt more in the pass game than in the run game.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Ravens
Throw the Ball:
With Flacco’s accuracy, who knows? At just 59.4% (24th
in the NFL), with 10 TDs, 9 INTs, 4 fumbles, and a 79.4 rating, Flacco is bringing
back to life the questions about his ability that have followed him his entire
career (nearly shook them with his impressive 2012 Super Bowl run). Flacco has
been hurt by the departure of Boldin and the injury to Pitta. Those two were
his safety blankets and most reliable targets. Torrey Smith is now his go to
guy, but the Ravens don’t have much beyond him. The Bengals, despite Hall’s
injury, still have a good pass defense (11th) and should be able to
match up well against the Ravens receivers. I would expect Smith to be doubled
all day. If Zimmer is smart, he will try and take away the deep routes for
Smith and force Smith to run routes and read defenses, not exactly his
strengths.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals
Run the Ball:
With the Bengals 19th ranked run offense and the
Ravens 8th ranked run defense, again, I wouldn’t expect much. I don’t
see either running game having a huge impact in this game. However, if Bernard
is healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bengals use some bubble screens
and short throws to Bernard and Hawkins as a supplement to the running game.
Advantage: Ravens
When the Bengals
Throw the Ball:
This is the one area where I think one of the teams has a
big advantage. Luckily, that advantage goes to the Bengals – 7th ranked
pass offense to the Ravens 14th ranked pass defense. The Bengals
have the receivers, tight ends and running backs to take advantage of the
Ravens pass defense…so long as the line can keep Dalton clean. With Baltimore’s
27 sacks, that will be a tall task. I look for the Bengals to use a lot of 2
tight end sets as a way to neutralize the Ravens pass rush and create
mismatches in the passing game.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaching:
John Harbaugh has 1 Super Bowl, 9 post season wins, and 1
post season win each of the last 5 seasons. Marvin Lewis has 0 playoff wins and
is unaware of what the Super Bowl is. Advantage Harbaugh and the Ravens.
However, this is not as big of an advantage as one might think. Harbaugh has
his own issues. No team has been worse at losing to bad teams than the Ravens
over his tenure, and, for all his success, Harbaugh has never found a
consistent way to use Ray Rice. As a result, I believe this is matchup is
closer than you might think
Advantage: Ravens
Key to the Game:
I believe the key to this game will be the Bengals offensive
line’s ability to keep Dalton upright. If Dalton is given time, I believe the
Bengals can create a ton of mismatches in the passing game. However, if the
Ravens can get in the backfield, Dalton gets jittery under pressure and likely
won’t be able to capitalize on the mismatches. In Dalton’s 4 starts against the
Ravens, he has been sacked 9 times.
Prediction:
This is a big game for both teams, but for completely
different reasons. For the Ravens, with games still remaining against the
Bears, Jets, Patriots, Lions and Bengals, a loss to the Bengals at home would
all but eliminate their playoff chances. For the Bengals, a win doesn’t
mathematically wrap anything up, but it would give them a 2.5 game lead on
Cleveland and 3.5 game lead on the Ravens with just 7 to play (6 for the Bengals).
I expect this to be like most AFC North games –an ugly, physical, low scoring
game featuring lots of defense. I see the Bengals finding a way to deal a blow
to the Ravens.
Bengals 24, Ravens 20
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