Week 13: NFL Picks

After another subpar week, I try and pick things up on turkey week!

Week 13
Packers	Packers
@
Lions
Raiders	Cowboys
@
Cowboys
Steelers	Ravens
@
Ravens
Jaguars	Cleveland
@
Cleveland
Titans	Titans
@
Colts
Bears	Bears
@
Vikings
Dolphins	Jets
@
Jets
Cardinals	Cardinals
@
Eagles
Buccaneers	Panthers
@
Panthers
Patriots	Patriots
@
Texans
Falcons	Bills
@
Bills
Rams	49ers
@
49ers
Broncos	Broncos
@
Chiefs
Bengals	Bengals
@
Chargers
Giants	Giants
@
Redskins
Saints	Saints
@
Seahawks
Record
Overall	115-60-1

Week 13: 12 oz Power Rankings

 

12 oz Power Rankings
Rank	Team	Record	Comment	Prev. Week
1	New Orleans Saints	9-2	The Saints have looked stronger against stronger competition and do not have the injury/suspension concerns of the Seahawks. Monday night may decide the #1 seed in the NFC.	2
2	Seattle Seahawks	10-1	The Seahawks have now had 7 players banned  for PEDs since 2011 (Sherman's overturned). The loss of Browner and Thurmond could cost them big time. Is the "12th Man" the fans or the PEDs?	3
3	Denver Broncos	9-2	The weather may affect Manning, but I still like this team as the top in the NFL.	1
4	Carolina Panthers	8-3	The Panthers did what good teams do - they won a game in which they played poorly. The Panthers look like legitimate contenders.	5
5	Cincinnati Bengals	7-4	With the bye week, the Bengals were able to get healthy at some positions. Maualuga and Still should return this week.	6
6	New England Patriots	8-3	A big win against the Broncos, but the Patriots continue to look very shaky.	7
7	Kansas City Chiefs	9-2	After a 9 game win streak, the Chiefs are likely to enter next week on a 3 game losing streak.	4
8	Arizona Cardinals	7-4	After a beat down of the Colts, the Cardinals are no longer flying completely under the radar, but they still are not garnering much respect.	10
9	San Francisco 49ers	7-4	They beat the Redskins comfortably, but who hasn't? The offense still does not look playoff worthy.	8
10	Dallas Cowboys	6-5	I still don't buy into them, but someone has to win the NFC East and they have the most "talent" to do so.	14
11	Philadelphia Eagles	6-5	Speaking of teams I am not buying into, but you don't have to be impressive in the NFC East, just less crappy than the other teams. That explains the Eagles.	12
12	Pittsburgh Steelers	5-6	From 0-4 to 5-6 and now tied for the last wild card spot. With 2 of their next 3 coming against the Ravens and Bengals, the Steelers can play their way into or back out of the playoffs.	19
13	Saint Louis Rams	5-6	They are still 4th in their own division, but they have looked very impressive of late. Are they better with Clemens?	18
14	Indianapolis Colts	7-4	They are still 7-4, hold a 2 game lead in their division, and beat SF, Sea and Den, but since losing Wayne, the Colts are 2-2 and a play or two away from 0-4.	9
15	Chicago Bears	6-5	Tied for first in the NFC North, but not being able to build a lead on GB while Rodgers is out could prove costly.	11
16	San Diego Chargers	5-6	The Chargers may have saved their season with a last second win in KC, but with 3 of their final 5 against Cin, Den and KC, they are far from out of the woods.	17
17	Tennessee Titans	5-6	The Titans are a solid team and if the season ended today, they would be the 6 seed in the AFC, I just don't think they are ready for the playoffs.	15
18	Baltimore Ravens	5-6	The former champ is never out of it until they are mathematically eliminated. Last week's win kept them alive, but every game from now on is basically a must win.	22
19	Green Bay Packers	5-5-1	The Packers need to keep within striking distance while Rodgers is out. The tie last week was huge. If they can stay within .5 game until Rodgers comes back, I like them to take the division.	24
20	Detroit Lions	6-5	There is no team I trust less than the Lions. There is no coach I trust less than Schwartz. Lots of talent + no discipline = disappointment.	12
21	Buffalo Bills	4-7	The Bills are only a game out of the 6 seed, but I don't see them as a true playoff contender. They are capable of spoiling someone else's playoff chances.	20
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-8	Schiano is apparently not going to give up his seat easily. Mike Glennon is apparently a capable QB. And, believe it or not, this team is an eyelash away from 5 or 6 wins.	28
23	New York Giants	4-7	The loss to the Cowboys was deflating. In the NFC East, they are not completely out of it, but 2 games back with 5 to play, they have more than an uphill battle.	16
24	Miami Dolphins	5-6	Like about 10 other teams, the Dolphins are tied for the 6 seed, but nothing about the Dolphins screams playoffs to me.	21
25	New York Jets	5-6	Technically in the playoff hunt, but if you watch them play, you would see they are nothing close to a playoff team…and Geno Smith is not going to be a quality NFL QB.	23
26	Washington Redskins	3-7	Last year, the Redskins won 7 in a row to make the playoffs. Outside of that stretch, RGIII is 6-15.	27
27	Oakland Raiders	4-7	Let the QB carousel in Oakland continue.	25
28	Cleveland Browns	4-7	The surprising season for the Browns looks to be over. Let the draft strategizing begin.	26
29	Minnesota Vikings	2-8-1	Wonder if Greg Jennings is regretting his decision of going somewhere to have Christian Ponder throw him passes over Aaron Rodgers?	30
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	2-9	Since starting 0-8, the Jaguars are 2-1 and have climbed out of the bottom of the rankings.	32
31	Houston Texans	2-9	One of the preseason Super Bowl favorites has dropped to 31st in the rankings and lost to the Jaguars.	29
32	Atlanta Falcons	2-9	One of the other preason Super Bowl favorites has dropped to 32nd in the rankings and have a legitimate shot at going from 13-3 to 3-13 and the #1 pick. I wonder if that has ever happened?	31

Bengals Bye Week Report Card

While it is not the literal halfway point, the bye week does separate the first half from the second half, and therefore is a good time to hand out mid-way report cards.

 

Team as a Whole: B-

At the beginning of the year, I would have taken 7-4 at the bye week – especially if it meant a 2 game division lead and legitimate shot at the AFC 2 seed. However, given how the games played out, I think 7-4 is disappointing and, given the inconsistencies of the team, they concern me enough to get just a “B-“ overall.

 

Quarter Back: C

At times, Dalton has been an A+. At other times, Dalton has been an F. Unfortunately, for the most part, he has been one or the other and has not been able to spend much time anywhere in between. 7-4 is good, but could (probably should) be better. After 11 games, he is on pace for 4,297 yards, 31 TDs, 61.5% comp., 7.21 avg. and a 85.2 rating – all of which would be career highs and all of which are very good (in a vacuum). He is also on pace for 22 INTs and 6 fumbles – both very bad and both career highs. Though not all his fault, Dalton has to find some level of consistency. No recipe for long term success includes 28 turnovers by the QB. If less throwing means less yards and TDs, I am fine with that as long as it means significantly less turnovers. In the last 5 games, the Bengals need to find some consistency and success in the run game and run the ball more to help Dalton. Andy Dalton should never be in the top 5 in attempts (4^th) – at least not at this point in his career.

 

Running Backs: C

Any time you are in the bottom half of the league in anything, that is not good. The Bengals find their run game ranked 19^th, averaging just 107.9 ypg. Surprisingly, the Bengals are 4^th in the NFL in rushing attempts (319) but rank just 26^th with 3.7 ypc. The struggles in the run game are a culmination of poor run blocking, poor play calling, poor scheming and also poor running back play (at least by the “starter”). Most disappointing has been the play of BJGE. While BJGE leads the team with 522 yards, he is averaging a paltry 3.3 ypc. That ranks him below 40 other players, including backups like Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, Daniel Thomas, Jacquizz Rodgers, Mike Tolbert, etc. Meanwhile, his “backup” (Bernard) is averaging 4.4 ypc and offers a lot in the passing game as well. If not for the rookie Bernard, the running backs grade would be a “D” at best. With 42 receptions, 809 all-purpose yards, and 7 TDs, it is time for Bernard to be the starter and BJGE to be the situational player. With Dalton’s recent struggles, establishing an actual running attack in down the stretch will be very important to the Bengals ability to advance in the playoffs.

 

Wide Receivers: B

With AJ Green 2^nd in the NFL in receiving yards (1,020) and the emergence of a legit #2 (Jones), the Bengals wide receiver corps is having a pretty good year – 1,466 yards, 13 TDs and 97 receptions between Green and Jones. The only thing keeping this grade from an A is the drops. Green and Sanu have each cost the Bengals at least a game a piece due to drops and/or fumbles (Chicago and Miami). As good as Green is, like Dalton, he needs to work on his consistency and concentration before he can get an “A”.

 

Full Backs: N/A

Hahahaha! Maybe I should have Hue Jackson write about the play of his full backs. I think on the season, everyone but the “Full Back” (Charles) has played full back – Peko (DT), Smith (TE) and Eifert (TE).

 

Tight Ends: B+

Like the wide receivers, the tight ends have had a good year, but have also been plagued by consistency issues – drops and penalties (well, Gresham has). Those issues keep this group from being an “A” as well. However, despite some of the issues, the tight ends have still contributed 66 receptions, 725 yards and 3 TDs. Tyler Eifert looks to be a legitimate NFL tight end and as much as I bang on him, Gresham, at times, can still be an excellent weapon.

 

Offensive Line: B-

The Good? Despite the 6^th most passing attempts (411), the line has surrendered just 26 sacks (16^th) – 10 of which came in a poor two game stretch against Miami and Baltimore. For the most part, Dalton has had time to throw.

The Bad? They rank just 26^th in rushing yards per attempt (3.7) – and run blocking is supposed to be what offensive lineman like. On multiple occasions this year, the line has failed to get enough push for BJGE, Bernard or Dalton to convert 3^rd and 4^th and shorts, and some of those (Baltimore and Miami) likely cost the Bengals the game.

 

Defensive Line: A-

Even without Atkins, the defensive line has been the strength of the team and been the most consistent aspect of the 2013 Bengals. The Bengals are 4^th in the NFL with 34 sacks, of which, 25.5 have come from the defensive line. Thanks to that pass rush, the Bengals rank 6^th against the pass, yielding just 211 ypg and 10^th against the run (102 ypg).With the injuries to Atkins and Geathers, the depth of the line has really been on display, and after the bye, Devon Still will get a chance to be added back to the rotation.

 

Line Backers: A-

Who would have thought at the beginning of the year the Bengals would have gotten such good play from their line backing corps, especially with Lamur going down in camp. Many expected Burfict to continue his good play, but he was still a second year undrafted player with a history of maturity issues and less than a full year as a starter. Regardless, no one had him leading the league in tackles and being arguably the best line backer in the NFL. Maualuga has put together his best season as a pro, yet his backup (Vinnie Rey) has played so well in Maualuga’s absence that Rey could replace Maualuga in the starting lineup. And Harrison, although his playing time has been limited, has been effective in situations. All-in-all, the Bengals have gotten way more out of the line backer position than I (and many) thought they would.

 

Corner Backs: B+

Like the defensive line, the Bengals are very deep at corner back as well, and like the defensive line, a lot of the credit for the Bengals 6^th ranked passing defense also has to go to the corner backs. Even with Hall out, this group has performed well. There aren’t a lot of big plays made by the group, but there also aren’t a lot of big plays given up either. Kirkpatrick and Ghee have finally gotten healthy and been able to contribute as well.

 

Safeties: A

While the safeties have played well, this grade, more than any other, is largely a product of expectations. Going into the year, I was very concerned with who would play opposite Nelson. I wanted the Bengals to take a safety high in the draft and they held off until taking Williams in the 4^th round. Fortunately for the Bengals, Iloka has played well enough that Williams hasn’t seen the field. Much like the cornerbacks, the Bengals safeties haven’t made a ton of big plays, but I have rarely found myself cursing the Bengals safeties in 2013…something I couldn’t say in past years and something I did not think I would be saying 11 weeks into 2013.

 

Kicker: C

Nugent has been like this entire team – inconsistent. Yes, he has made some huge game-winning kicks, however, they have been needed because of earlier misses. At 15 for 19, Nugent is in the bottom eight of the league (25^th) in kicking percentage and is challenging himself for his worst season as a pro. If a big kick is needed in the playoffs (or to get to the playoffs), I don’t exactly trust Nugent to make it.

 

Punter: A

Someone I do trust in Huber, and like the defensive line, has been one of the few consistent aspects of this 2013 Bengals team. Huber is ranked 11^th in Net (40.5) and 6^th in punts inside the 20 and is in the midst of a Pro-Bowl type season.

 

Kick/Punt Returns: B

The Bengals are ranked 8^th (24.7) in kick returns and 19^th in punt returns (8.4) – pretty average. However, they get an above average score because they have done a good job holding onto the ball and not hurting the Bengals.

 

Kick/Punt Coverage: A-

The Bengals rank in the middle of the road (15^th) when it comes to kick returns (23.2), but they have been doing very well (10^th thanks to Huber) on the punt return coverage (7.2). The coverage is a little above average and Huber is much above average, leaving them in the “A” range.

 

Head Coach: B-

His team is at 7-4, leading their division, and in position to compete for the #2 seed. Marvin has also been much more aggressive this year with his willingness to go for it on 4^th down and has greatly improved his challenge success rate. That is the good. However, he hasn’t exactly been successful with his high risk calls. In fact, a few have likely cost them the game (the Baltimore and Miami games come to mind). And, like always, Marvin still seems to struggle managing the end of the half and end of the game. Lastly, though 7-4 is good, a few questionable decisions likely are the difference between 7-4 and 9-2.

 

Offensive Coordinator: D

If not for their 7-4 record, this would be an F. Play-calling has been poor, predictable, boring and ineffective. If not for Bernard’s highlight reel runs and Green’s crazy catches, this offense would be brutal to watch. Dalton seems to have regressed again and at times the offense looks like it is stuck in reverse. With the plethora of weapons on offense, the stagnancy of this offense is unacceptable.

 

Defensive Coordinator: B+

Zimmer is in the middle of another impressive campaign. He has lost his best corner, his best 2 cover line backers (Lamur and Taylor), his starting middle line backer and the best DT in the NFL and still has his unit ranked 6^th overall. The only thing keeping him from an “A” is multiple late game/half collapses of the defense (see Chicago, Cleveland, Buffalo, Miami and Baltimore games for example). If not for late game collapses in Chicago, Miami and Baltimore (Cleveland may not have mattered), you may be looking at a 10-1 team rather than a 7-4 team.

 

Special Teams as a Whole: B+

If not for a few big misses by Nugent, this group would be an “A.” The way Huber has been playing, the 2 blocked punts and 1 TD last week, as well as the overall consistency of the return game and return coverage has been very impressive this year.