There is an exception to all rules. In baseball, good
pitching beats good hitting…except when the team with good pitching is so comically
bad offensively. That describes the Reds of late. How bad has the Reds offense
been of late (and 2013 in general)?
In the last 11 games, the Reds have given up an average of
2.64 runs/game. They are 4-7 in that stretch. Here are the numbers in that
stretch:
|
Win / Loss
|
Runs
|
Base Runners
|
LOB
|
RISP
|
Decision for Reds SP
|
Opp. Pitcher threw (R/L)
|
ERA of Pitcher faced
|
Pitcher
|
|
L
|
2
|
10
|
6
|
0-3
|
L
|
L
|
2.15
|
Locke
|
|
W
|
11
|
18
|
6
|
5-14
|
W
|
R
|
4.61
|
Lincecum
|
|
W
|
9
|
15
|
6
|
5-8
|
W
|
L
|
Rookie
|
Surkamp
|
|
L
|
3
|
14
|
14
|
1-14
|
NK
|
L
|
4.92
|
Zito
|
|
W
|
8
|
19
|
10
|
4-14
|
W
|
R
|
2.77
|
Gaudin
|
|
W
|
5
|
12
|
6
|
3-8
|
W
|
R
|
3.43
|
Greinke
|
|
L
|
1
|
6
|
4
|
1-9
|
L
|
L
|
1.96
|
Kershaw
|
|
L
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
0-3
|
L
|
L
|
3.14
|
Ryu
|
|
L/11
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
0-6
|
ND
|
L
|
4.54
|
Capuano
|
|
L
|
1
|
12
|
10
|
0-5
|
ND
|
R
|
3.72
|
O'Sullivan
|
|
L
|
2
|
11
|
8
|
3-7
|
ND
|
R
|
5.56
|
Volquez
|
|
4-7
|
43
|
125
|
77
|
22-91
|
|
Avg Runs Scored/game by Reds:
|
3.91
|
||
|
Runs in L:
|
10
|
||
|
Avg Runs in L:
|
1.42
|
||
|
Runs in W:
|
33
|
||
|
Avg Runs in W:
|
8.25
|
||
|
Avg Base Runners (ABR) :
|
11.36
|
||
|
ABR in L:
|
8.7143
|
||
|
ABR in W:
|
16
|
||
|
% of BR reaching scoring position in L:
|
0.770
|
||
|
% of BR reaching scoring position in W:
|
0.6875
|
||
|
Avg w/ RISP:
|
0.242
|
||
|
RISP in L:
|
47
|
||
|
Avg w/ RISP in L:
|
0.085
|
4-47
|
|
|
RISP in W:
|
44
|
||
|
Avg w/ RISP in W:
|
0.386
|
17-44
|
|
|
Reds Runs against:
|
29
|
||
|
Reds Avg Runs Against:
|
2.64
|
||
|
Reds Starting Pitchers:
|
4W - 3L - 4 ND
|
||
|
vs Lefty
|
1-5
|
Only W vs a Rookie making his 1st start
|
|
|
vs Righty
|
3-2
|
||
|
Avg ERA of Opposing P:
|
3.68
|
Does not include Surkamp
|
|
|
Avg ERA of Opp P in L:
|
3.71
|
||
|
Avg ERA of Opp P in W:
|
3.60
|
||
|
Reds record when scoring 4+ runs:
|
49-13 (4 losses were in extra innings)
|
||
|
Reds Avg runs/game:
|
4.31
|
||
They have not gotten on base a lot of late, but they have
gotten on enough (nearly 9 runners/game) given the pitching they are getting.
The Reds are currently the 2nd wildcard in the NL
despite these staggering pitching numbers:
|
Pitching
|
MLB Rank
|
NL Rank
|
|
|
WHIP
|
1.18
|
T-1st
|
T-1st
|
|
ERA
|
3.33
|
2
|
2
|
|
QS
|
66
|
T-2nd
|
T-1st
|
|
IP
|
976.1
|
1
|
1
|
|
ER
|
361
|
4
|
4
|
|
Batting Avg Against (BAA)
|
0.237
|
3
|
2
|
|
K
|
882
|
3
|
1
|
|
K/BB
|
3.03
|
3
|
1
|
|
K/9
|
8.13
|
5
|
2
|
On the surface, their hitting doesn’t look too bad:
|
Hitting
|
MLB Rank
|
NL Rank
|
|
|
Runs
|
466
|
12
|
3
|
|
OBP
|
0.327
|
8
|
3
|
|
Runs/game
|
4.31
|
||
|
RBI
|
445
|
12
|
4
|
|
Avg
|
0.250
|
18
|
9
|
|
HR
|
102
|
15
|
5
|
|
OPS
|
0.721
|
13
|
5
|
These numbers are deceiving though. The Reds runs come in
bunches and that skews the holes in this offense.
The Magic of 4
The Reds rank 3rd in the NL in runs scored,
averaging 4.31/game, however, 49 times this year (45%), the Reds have scored 3
runs or less. 4 runs is the magic number for this team. 4 runs should not be a
problem for this offense, yet it is:
When the Reds score 4+ runs, they are 49-13 (.790 W%) – 4 of
those losses are in extra innings
Had the Reds scored just 4 runs in each of their last 11
games (they averaged 3.9), they would have gone 8-1 with 2 ties. Instead, they
went 4-7.
In their last 11 games, the Reds scored 43 runs – not unforgiveable
33 of those runs came in the 4 wins; 10 in the 7 losses – which
is unforgiveable.
What are they to do? Well, based on what they did today (or
didn’t do at the trade deadline), nothing. If they are waiting for injured
players to come back, I wouldn’t count on it helping:
Sure getting Marshall, Broxton, and Cueto back would be
great, but pitching isn’t their problem (see above), hitting is. And, if they
are counting on Ludwick, I don’t think that is wise either. He is 35 years old
coming off a labrum tear, therefore, expecting the Ludwick from 2012 is setting
yourself up for disappointment.
RISP
Here are the Reds players averages as a whole, and averages
with RISP. Not good.
|
Avg
|
Avg w/ RISP
|
|
|
0.283
|
Choo
|
0.238
|
|
0.238
|
Cozart
|
0.177
|
|
0.317
|
Votto
|
0.287
|
|
0.256
|
Phillips
|
0.389
|
|
0.279
|
Bruce
|
0.258
|
|
0.243
|
Frazier
|
0.269
|
|
0.251
|
Mesaraco
|
0.262
|
|
0.215
|
Heisey
|
0.222
|
|
0.261
|
Robinson
|
0.214
|
|
0.240
|
Paul
|
0.264
|
