A week ago, this game looked like it would have much less
urgency. The Giants were expected to beat the Redskins and have at least a two
game lead on the Cowboys, and the Steelers and Colts were projected to lose.
With the Giants losing, and the Colts and Steelers winning, this becomes a
critical game for both teams.
When the Cowboys Run the Ball
The Cowboys clearly do not subscribe to the Bob Bratkowski
rules of offense and the importance of establishing the run. The Cowboys are 30th
in the NFL in rushing, averaging just 82 ypg and have had only one game with a
100+ yard rusher (Murray – 131 in week 1 vs NYG). Getting DeMarco Murray back
should help, but this is not a team committed to running the ball. The Cowboys
have had games where their top runner rushed for 44, 38, 24, 44, 19, 39, 43,
and 14 yards. Those are not typos. On top of that, the Bengals have the 11th
ranked run defense that has been playing to the level of a top 5 run defense.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Cowboys Throw the Ball
The Cowboys will throw and throw often. They are 2nd
in the NFL passing and the passing game is clearly their strength and their
focus. They feature 3 players on pace for 1,000 yards (Bryant, Witten, and Austin)
and the Bengals secondary, though they have been playing better, is the
weakness of the defense. The key for the Bengals will be pressure on Romo. The
Bengals lead the NFL with 39 sacks and the Cowboys have given up 28, so the
Bengals should be able to get to Romo. If they can, they can force Romo to make
mistakes, - Romo has 15 picks, 1 off the NFL lead - if not, he can pick them
apart with that receiving corp. Most concerning is Witten. Witten and Romo have
great chemistry and the Bengals have yet to realize that a TE is eligible. If
the Bengals are smart, they will cover Witten with a safety (Crocker or
Clements) or a CB. If the Cowboys are smart, they will try to get Witten on the
Bengal LBs. If that happens, it could be a long day for the Bengals. The
Cowboys receiving corps is a mismatch for the Bengals secondary, however, I
believe the Bengals will be able to get enough pressure on Romo to mask the
mismatch.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals Run the Ball
The Bengals have found their run game again and as a result,
have found success. BJGE has rushed for 100+ yards in 3 straight games, and
likely will find similar success on Sunday. The Cowboys have the 17th
ranked run defense and are allowing 117 ypg. Last week the Cowboys allowed 169
yards (7.0 avg) to a backup RB on a passing team.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals Throw the Ball
The Cowboys pass defense is ranked 10th, but they
have not seen a dynamic receiving corps since week 8 against the Falcons. The
Falcons threw for 342 yards. The key for the Cowboys will be getting pressure
on Dalton. The key for the Bengals will be keeping the Cowboys off Dalton…especially
Demarcus Ware. If the Cowboys can get to Ware, they can cover the Bengals. If
they can’t, look for big games from Green and Gresham.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaching
Rarely do I have more faith in the Bengals coach than the
opponent, but, Jason Garrett is not a good coach. A decent OC, but not a good
coach. Though he has a winning record at 19-17, Jason Garrett has always had
one of the most (if not the most) talented teams in the NFL and 19-17 is
greatly underperforming. The reason? Jason Garrett’s team is a very undisciplined
team. Untimely penalties, drops, turnovers, etc. If this game is close at the
end, and I think it will be, I trust the Bengals to make a play and the Cowboys
to falter.
Advantage: Bengals
Conclusion
Despite believing that the Bengals have the advantage in
every category, the advantage is slim. I expect this game to be close and could
go either way. I believe this will boil down to the team that makes the least
mistakes, and I trust a Jason Garrett coached and Tony Romo lead team to make
more mistakes than the Bengals.
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