Bengals v Ravens II - Post Season Prepper

This game means very little for the Ravens. Sitting in the 4 seed with the AFC North wrapped up, the only way this game effects the Ravens is if they win and NE loses (which would move Baltimore to the 3 seed). This game means even less for the Bengals. The Bengals are the 6 seed whether they win or lose. The only significance in this game from the Bengals perspective is to get some momentum heading into the playoffs. The biggest concern in this game is to come out healthy.

When the Ravens Run the Ball

Ray Rice is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Somehow the Ravens seem to be unaware of that fact. How else could you explain Rice having just 14 more touches than BJGE (315 to 301)? Everything with the Ravens offense should run through Ray Rice. That is not the case with BJGE and the Bengals. Heck, BJGE has split carries in games and is a very minor factor in the passing game. Rice is the only ‘Elite’ player on the Ravens offense (despite whatever Joe Flacco says). Compared to 2011, Rice is on pace for 4 less TDs, 20 less carries, 250 less rushing yards, 11 less receptions, and 194 less receiving yards. Ray Rice should have 25 touches per game. No Ravens game should conclude with Rice getting less than 20 carries and 4 receptions. However, Rice has received less than 4 receptions in 7 games this year and just 20 carries or less in 12 of the Ravens 15 games! Rice has 100+ yards rushing in just 4 games this year (same as BJGE) Not surprising that Cam Cameron got the axe. Rice did average 6.8 ypc in the week 1 meeting against the Bengals, but only had 93 all purpose yards on 13 touches. This is not the same Bengals defense the Ravens saw in week 1 and this is not the same Ravens offense the Bengals defense saw in week 1 either. In week 1 the Bengals gave up 430 yards to the Ravens offense. In the last 6 games, the Bengals have been holding opposing defenses to 264.3, best in the NFL. The Ravens offense has scored 20 or less in 4 of their last 6 games. For whatever reason, the Ravens believe they are a passing team, therefore, Rice may have some success in the short passing game this Sunday, but I expect the Bengals to hold him in check in the running game.

Advantage: Bengals

When the Ravens Throw the Ball

The Ravens have run 959 plays this season, 59% of which (561) have been passes. Like I said before, despite having Ray Rice on their team, the Ravens believe they are a passing team and therefore, that Joe Flacco is the best player on their team. So, let’s look at Flacco. If you believe in the QBR (where 50.0 is average), Flacco is a below average QB (QBR = 47.8) ranked 24^th amongst starting QBs. The reason? He is incredibly inconsistent. When Flacco throws for 299+ yards, the Ravens are 6-0. When Flacco throws for less than 299, the Ravens are just 4-5. The breakdown of his inconsistencies is staggering:

	299+ yards	Less than 299 yards	Overall
Record	6-0	4-5	10-5
TDs	12	10	22
INTs	3	7	10
TD:INT	4:1	1.4:1	2.2:1
Yards	2,042	1,741	3,783
Comp. %	65.4%	55.4%	59.8%
QBR	79.7	35.7	47.8

The second important stat against Flacco is to make him uncomfortable. Like most QBs, when you put pressure on Flacco, he throws picks and loses games. But much like the yards breakdown, there is a huge difference when you sack Flacco 2 or more times:

	Less than 2 sacks	More than 2 sacks	Overall
Record	5-0	5-5	10-5
TDs	10	12	22
INTs	2	8	10
TD:INT	5:1	1.5:1	2.2:1
Yards	1,419	2,364	3,783
Comp. %	67.1%	56.7%	59.8%
QBR	84.8	37.5	47.8

Moral of the story? Keep Flacco under 299 or sack him more than twice and you have a great chance of winning. Do them both, and you have a great chance at winning (2-5). The question is can the Bengals keep him under 299 and sack him more than twice? In week 1, they couldn’t (3 sacks, but 299 yards), but like we said before, this is a different defense than what Baltimore saw in week 1. In week 1 Dunlap was out, Maualuga was fat, Burfict was on the sidelines, and Crocker and Gilberry were unemployed. This week, Dunlap and Crocker are back, Gilberry is in the rotation, Burfict is starting, and Mauluga is playing much better. The Ravens WRs can make plays against the Bengals secondary…if they get enough time. I don’t believe they will. I believe the Bengals DL is better than the Ravens OL and therefore I believe the Bengals will hold Flacco under 299 and sack him more than twice. That would mean bad things for the Ravens.

Advantage: Bengals

When the Bengals Run the Ball

Remember the Baltimore defenses that no one could run on? That is not this defense. This Baltimore defense is ranked 24^th against the run, giving up 127.9 per game (only 1 playoff team has a run defense ranked lower – Indy). This Baltimore run defense is the weakness of the team and may be just what the Bengals need to get their run game back on track before the playoffs. In week 1 BJGE had 91 yards on just 18 carries (5.1 ypc). He and Peerman combined for 113 yards on 21 carries (5.4 ypc). Look for BJGE to rebound against Baltimore after a terrible day against the Steelers.

Advantage: Bengals

When the Bengals Throw the Ball

If the run defense is weakness 1a of this team, the pass defense is weakness 1b. The Ravens Pass defense is average at best, ranked 17^th in the NFL and surrendering 233.9 ypg. However, Andy Dalton has never beaten the Ravens (0-3), did not have a good week 1 against the Ravens (221 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT – pick 6), and has been struggling of late. While I do not believe the Ravens have the personnel in the secondary to cover Green, I do not believe Dalton nor his secondary options are playing well enough to take advantage of it.

Advantage: Ravens

 

Coaching

John Harbaugh, much like Marvin Lewis, makes a bunch of head scratching moves (ignoring Rice at times, firing Cam Cameron when he did, etc). However, he is 4-0 in his last 4 attempts against Marvin Lewis and has a history of winning in the playoffs (AFC Championship game just last year). Therefore, I give Harbaugh the nod over Lewis.

 

Advantage: Ravens

Conclusion

I firmly believe the Bengals are the better all around team. I believe the Bengals are playing better at this point in the season than the Ravens. And I believe the Bengals will win this game. However, they could benefit from a loss. It is possible for the Bengals to play the Ravens in round 1 if the Ravens win and the Patriots lose to the Dophins (a team NE has struggled with over the years). Should that happen, combined with a Houston win, the Bengals path to the AFC Championship game would be include Flacco and Schaub and 2 struggling teams. Any other scenario has the Bengals facing at least Brady, and possibly Brady and Manning. I would prefer to stay away from Brady and Manning as long as possible.   

Prediction:

Bengals 27, Ravens 17