Unlike other Power Rankings, the rankings here at the 12oz
Pro-Spective are not based on a team’s most recent game, record, or previous
rankings, they are true Power Rankings, based solely on “if the playoffs
started today, who ya taking.” So, here is how I see it.
1. Broncos (11-3)
Their only 3 losses are @Atlanta, @NE, and
home against Houston. All in the first 5 weeks, all before Manning was clicking
with his new receivers. Manning is now comfortable in his new offense and with
his new weapons. Need proof? 9 straight wins, including wins @Cincinnati,
@Carolina, and @Baltimore by 8, 22, and 17 respectively, as well as beating New
Orleans by 20. With Cleveland and KC left, Denver will likely enter the playoffs
on an 11 game win streak.
2. 49ers (10-3-1)
Today, I believe the 49ers have a slight
edge on the Packers, but I am not sold on this team. The defense is good, but
not the dominant unit it was in 2011. And, I am in the camp that believes going
with Kaepernick was a bad decision (for this year). Not because he isn’t
playing well - he is 5th in QBR - but because of how replacing a QB
who is playing well – 3rd in QBR – with a rookie, divides a team and
could be costly in a playoff scenario. Kaepernick has 12 TDs (7 passing 5
rushing) to just 2 INTs, but, he has 7 fumbles!
3. Patriots (10-4)
Brady’s 2 INTs and 1 TD in the 41-34 loss at
home to SF is concerning. However, they still put up 34 against SF and when the
chips are on the table, I will take Brady and Belichek, over anyone in the AFC,
except (maybe) Manning and Fox.
4. Packers (10-4)
The Packers are starting to get healthier
(Jennings back, Matthews soon) just at the right time. They have won 8 of their
last 9 and somehow Rodgers has put up a quiet 32 TDs. The defense is a concern,
but they do have the best QB in the NFC and QBs win playoff games.
5. Falcons (12-2)
I know they are 12-2 and coming off a 34-0
beating of the Giants, but I am not impressed with the Falcons. They are 4-2 in
their last 6 games, but both losses have been to non-playoff teams (NO and
Carolina). Their best win came in week 2 over Denver, but that was a different
Denver team. If Atlanta played GB or SF, I am taking either of the latter.
6. Texans (12-2)
Like the 12-2 Falcons, I am not impressed
with Houston. They are solid, but their defense has not been the same
(understandably so) since losing Brian Cushing. Houston’s 2 losses are by 28 to
NE and 18 to GB. They also needed OT and a terrible call to beat Detroit and OT
and a furious comeback to beat Jacksonville (at home) – neither of which are
things championship teams do. I think Houston is good, but in January, I am
taking Manning/Fox and Brady/Belicheck over Schaub/Kubiak.
7. Cowboys (8-6)
It pains me to put the Cowboys here, but
after impressive comeback wins @Cincinnati and against Pittsburgh, the Cowboys
look tough. Romo has been protecting the ball, but in order to make any noise,
he will have to do it in the playoffs.
8. Seahawks (9-5)
The Seahawks may be the biggest surprise of
the year. Russell Wilson is playing very well and the defense is as tough as
any in the NFL and good defenses keep teams in games.
9. Bengals (8-6)
The Bengals have a top 10 defense and an
offense that can be as dangerous as any. If they get into the playoffs, they
could be a tough out.
10. Colts (9-5)
If the Seahawks aren’t the biggest surprise,
the Colts most certainly are. While I don’t believe they are as good as their
record indicates, they do have 9 wins and 2 good wins (GB and Minnesota).
However, if the Colts make the playoffs, it will be as a WC, which means a road
game. The Colts are 3-4 on the road with their best win being @Detroit (who is
bad this year). Most concerning, is they are not competitive on the road
against good teams. Their 4 road losses are to Chicago, NYJ, NE, and Houston by
an average of 23.25 points, including a 35 point beating by NE…their possible
first round matchup.
11. Redskins (8-6)
The Redskins are playing well. After looking
dead at 3-6, they have rattled off 5 straight wins, including impressive wins
against NYG, Baltimore, and @Dallas. With RG3 healthy, you can’t count them
out.
12. Giants (8-6)
They are the ultimate Jekyll & Hyde.
When they play well, they can be the best team in the NFL (see 2011 Super Bowl
Champions), but when they are playing bad, they can look real bad (see 34-0
loss last week). Lucky for the Giants, this is when they normally start playing
well.
13. Bears (8-6)
The Bears got off to a 7-1 record winning
with defense. Recently, the Bears have suffered some injuries on defense and the
defense is no longer carrying them. The Bears are 1-5 over their past 6 games,
have lost the division, and now are in danger of missing the playoffs.
14. Vikings (8-6)
The Vikings aren’t very good. Lucky for
them, Adrian Peterson is really good. Without him, this team is likely fighting
for the #1 pick.
15. Steelers (7-7)
The Steelers have had an inordinate amount
of injuries on offense and defense, yet still sit at 7-7 and control their
playoff destiny. That is a testament to Mike Tomlin and a well run
organization.It is amazing the Steelers are 7-7.
16. Ravens (9-5)
Dear Joe Flacco, You are not elite. Signed,
12oz Pro-Spective. The Ravens were considered a Super Bowl contender in 2012
(don’t ask me why). The Ravens have lost 3 in a row. The Ravens losses are: by
1 to 4-10 Philadelphia, by 30 to Houston, by 3 to the Charlie Batch led
Steelers, and by 17 at home to the Broncos. If that is not bad enough,
Baltimore beat KC by 3, Pittsburgh (at home and against Leftwich) by 3, and SD
in OT. Not a contender.
17. Rams (6-6-1)
Has a team ever been so quietly in the
playoff chase?
18. Saints (6-8)
I didn’t think missing Sean Peyton would
make a big difference. I was wrong. While I think the Saints are better than a
number of teams that will make the playoffs, when you get off to an 0-5 start,
it is hard to recover from.
19. Panthers (5-9)
Cam Newton is a freak. While his sophomore
year may not be as impressive as his rookie season, he is still putting up
great numbers. His raw talent alone will allow this team to never be a doormat,
but, unless he works on his pocket skills, his raw talent will never get him
(or his team) into the elite (see Michael Vick).
20. Buccaneers (6-8)
Disappointing end to what looked like a
promising year. Doug Martin is a star in the making. Josh Freeman is a solid
QB. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are a good 1,2 WR combo. And, the Bucs
run defense is #1 overall…but, their pass defense is #32. How does that happen?
I don’t know, but you can’t win consistently with either side of your defense
ranked 32nd.
21. Dolphins (6-8)
The Dolphins are the prototypical 8-8 team.
They are solid at just about every position and have 0 difference makers.
Tannehill looks to be a good young QB, but is he a difference maker? I don’t
see it…at least not yet. To win in this league, you need difference makers. The
Dolphins don’t have them.
22. Browns (5-9)
When healthy, the Browns have a playoff
caliber defense led by Joe Hayden (one of the top 1-on-1 CBs). The problem is
their offense and their management. Maybe that changes with the new ownership,
but that will take time. Richardson is going to be a star at RB, but they have
0 difference makers at WR or TE or QB. Weeden has been much better than I
thought, but he still is a rookie making poor decisions….not too bad if it
weren’t for the fact that he will be 29 next year and is already older than
Aaron Rodgers. I can’t see Cleveland building around this guy. By the time he
develops, he will be eligible for AARP.
23. Chargers (5-9)
Speaking of poor leadership. Turner and the
GM are likely gone. This would be good for SD fans if the owner had the ability
to hire more capable people. Problem is, he doesn’t. Rivers has become a
turnover machine, Gates is past his prime, they don’t have any WRs, and Ryan Mathews
is made of glass.
24. Bills (5-9)
Common with teams down here is poor
leadership/ownership. The Bills fit that category. They have some pieces, but
lack a vision. Spiller and Jackson are a solid back field. Steve Johnson is a
good NFL WR. But, Fitzpatrick is not a starting QB. Buffalo should look to pick
up a decent veteran QB (Palmer, Smith, Vick, etc) to take advantage of the
current weapons, and then draft a QB.
25. Titans (5-9)
What happened to Chris Johnson? He will end
the year with 1,200+ yards, but looks to be underperforming his talent. It
doesn’t help that his line sucks and his QB is inaccurate.
26. Lions (4-10)
The Lions remind me of the 2005 and 2006 Bengals
– highly skilled but poor discipline. In 2005, the Bengals exploded on offense winning
their division and making the playoffs for the first time since 1990. Then in
2006, 2007, 2008, they went backwards. Their lack of institutional control
caught up to them. The 2011 Lions were an offense juggernaut with a team full
of undisciplined players. Now look at the 2012 Lions. Until they get some
control, this team will continue to put up points, not wins.
27. Jets (6-8)
Speaking of discipline issues, the Jets are
a mess. Signing Sanchez long term made no sense. Signing Tebow made less sense.
Leaving Sanchez in all year was insane. And now benching Sanchez for Greg
McElroy is a train wreck.
28. Cardinals (5-9)
Remember when the Cardinals were 4-0? Yeah,
neither do the Cardinals. Note to Cardinals, the Kolb experiment is over and
Larry Fitzgerald (and football fans everywhere) would like to see someone worth
a damn throw him passes.
29. Raiders (4-10)
This team is more talented than there record
reflects. The problem with the Raiders is threefold: 1) McFadden (just like in
college) can’t stay healthy – sad but true; 2) The defense sucks; 3) Carson
Palmer throws too many pick 6’s.
30. Jaguars (2-12)
The Jags seem to have a developing WR corps
with Shorts and Blackmon, and with MJD, they have some skill on offense. The
problem is the person throwing them the ball….oh, and the 31st rank
defense.
31. Chiefs (2-12)
How are the Chiefs so bad? They have too
much talent on both sides of the ball to be this bad. Romeo Crennel may be a
great guy, but he is not a good coach. Any coach that oversees a team with
Jamaal Charles and only sees 33 passes to Charles is asleep at the wheel.
Charles is perfect for screen passes, try one.
32. Eagles (4-10)
Andy Reid is a good coach, but sometimes a change of
scenery is needed for both parties. This is one of those situations. This team would
be great in a video game. In real life, they lack the components necessary to
win. Lots of names, not a lot of guys willing to do the dirty work. Michael
Vick is very fun to watch, but he doesn’t win. He is a coach killer. Coaches
can’t pass him up, but they can’t win with him. Whomever picks up Vick this
year will be fired within 3 years…without winning a playoff game.
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