The last time these two teams played each other was 2008 when
they played to a 13-13 tie in Cincinnati. In 2008, Donovan McNabb was fat. 4
years later, these teams meet again, this time in Philadelphia, and though McNabb is no
longer with the Eagles, he is still fat. What does that have to do with this
game you ask? Nothing. But that is the kind of information you can only get at
the 12 oz Pro-Spective. Now, on with the game…
The short turnaround time for Thursday games is tough….not
just for the teams, but also for the world class journalists that cover the
teams! However, after one of their ugliest games of the year, the short
turnaround is probably just what the Bengals need. Playing Thursday doesn’t
give the Bengals time to think about the chance they blew on Sunday and gives
them the opportunity to quickly get the Cowboys game in the rearview mirror.
The loss Sunday has put the Bengals in a scramble for the playoffs, making
these next two games must wins. On paper, the 4-9 Eagles, who have lost 8 of 9,
who are playing without Vick, McCoy, Celek, and Jackson, and who have a coach that
is likely to be fired in 3 weeks, looks like an easy win for the Bengals. That
is the dangerous part. The Bengals need this game and can’t afford to overlook
the Eagles. The Eagles still have talent and Reid is still a good coach. On
Sunday, down 11 on the road with less than 4 minutes to play against a Tampa
Bay team fighting for their playoff lives, the rookie Nick Foles threw for 381
yards and accounted for 3 TDs, culminating an 11 point comeback win with a TD
pass as time expired. With the Steelers game next weekend and Philly having
little to play for, this is the classic ‘Trap Game.’ The Bengals cannot afford
to take this game lightly. If they don’t win Thursday, the matchup with the
Steelers next weekend may not matter.
When the Eagles Run the Ball
The Eagles will be without LeSean McCoy for the 4th
straight game and will again rely on rookie RB Bryce Brown to carry the load.
Brown made his debut as a starter 3 weeks ago with an impressive 178 yard
effort against Carolina and followed that up with 169 against the Cowboys.
However, the Panthers and Cowboys are 21st and 16th
respectively against the run. Last week, Brown went up against the top run
defense in TB and managed just 6 yards on 12 carries. The Bengals are ranked 11th
against the run, but have been playing even better than their ranking of late. Sunday
the Bengals held DeMarco Murray to less than 2 ypc; for comparison, the Bucs
allowed Murray 2.1 ypc. The Bengals will try and take away the run and force
Foles to beat them like TB did. I expect Brown to do better than his 0.5 ypc
outing against the Bucs, but I expect the Bengals to keep him in check.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Eagles Throw the Ball
Despite Vick being cleared to play, the Eagles will be
starting a rookie at QB as well in the 6’6” Nick Foles. Foles had pedestrian
stats in his first 4 starts, but had a breakout game last week against the
NFL’s worst pass defense. Part of the reason Brown only had 12 carries was
because of Foles’s effectiveness. Even without DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek
(injured early), the Eagles threw the ball for 381 yards. In Jackson’s absence,
Jason Avant has stepped up as a serviceable #2 WR and seems to have developed a
good chemistry with Nick Foles. However, the Bengals defense should be a much
better gauge than their Foles’s last 2 opponents, TB and Washington (ranked 32nd
and 31st against the pass). The Bengals rank 10th against
the pass (TB 32nd), give up 90 less yards per game in the air than
TB, and lead the league with 42 sacks, 18 more than the 25th ranked
Bucs. To make matters worse (for Foles and the Eagles), the Eagles OL sucks.
Eagle QBs have been sacked 41 times in 13 games, 3rd most in the
NFL. SD tried to combat the Bengals pass rush with screen plays and had some
success, so I would expect lots of screens early. However, when push comes to shove,
Bengals DL > Eagles OL = Bad things for Foles.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals Run the Ball
After struggling the first 8 games, the Bengals run game has
hit its stride the last 5 games. BJGE had a 3 game streak of 100+ yards snapped
on Sunday, but not due to his ineffectiveness. BJGE had 89 yards on 12 carries,
for 7.3 ypc, but received just 1 carry in the 4th quarter, sparking
a lot of heat on Jay Gruden, and rightfully so. The Eagles are ranked 17th
in run defense, one spot behind the Cowboys run defense, and we saw how bad
that was on Sunday. Look for the Bengals to get a lead on Thursday and stick
with the running game until the Eagles show they can stop it. With the focus
the Eagles will be putting on the Bengals receivers, I don’t believe they will
be able to stop the run without exposing their pass defense.
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals Throw the Ball
The Bengals receivers (and Dalton) had a bad game Sunday and
that is putting it mildly. Especially AJ Green, who after his worst game as a
pro, will undoubtedly be looking to forget Sunday’s performance. That is not a
good thing for the Eagles. The Eagles have good CBs, at least in name, but are
only ranked 15th in pass defense, and performed poor enough to get
their DC fired midseason. The Eagles are tied for 29th in the NFL
for sacks and INTs, so Dalton should have time to throw, and as long as he
doesn’t try to force things, should be able to keep the ball out of the Eagles
hands. However, Dalton has shown a penchant for forcing things, and when that
happens, INTs happen, just like Sunday against Dallas (who is the only team
with less INTs than the Eagles). It will be interesting to see how the Eagles
play Green. Will they allow Nnamdi
Asomugha to cover him 1-on-1? Or will they offer him safety help? Asomugha was
once considered the best CB in the league. Though he is still good, he no
longer seems to be playing at that level. If the Eagles don’t double Green,
they could be in for a long day. If they do double Green, look for Gresham to
have a big game.
Advantage: Bengals
Coaching
Overall coaching resume, the advantage clearly goes to Andy
Reid. However, when looking just at this year, Lewis has his team playing well
and Reid looks to be a lame duck coach who appears to have lost his team.
Despite the comeback last week, the Bengals are playing more for their coach
than the Eagles are playing for theirs. If the game comes down to a crucial
situation where the coaches decision makes or breaks the game, I will still go
with Reid. However, I don’t think the game will be that close, and therefore,
for this game, in this year only, I will give the nod to Lewis.
Advantage: Bengals
Conclusion
The Bengals are coming off one of their ugliest games of the
year, while the Eagles are coming off an impressive and spirited comeback win.
However, the Eagles are 4-9 this year, have at times looked like they have
quit, and are a very close to being 0-13. The Eagles 4 wins have come by a
combined total of 6 points! I rarely pick a blowout, but this is a bad matchup
for the Eagles (as if there is a good matchup for a 4-9 team). I look for the
Bengals to jump on the Eagles early, put tons of pressure on Foles, get the
Philly boo birds out, and cruise to an easy win.
Prediction:
Bengals 27, Eagles 13
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