Wild Card Sunday: Bengals vs Chargers - What to Look For

Sellout or no sellout, the Bengals need a playoff win in the worst sort of way (especially Marvin and Dalton). Another first round exit could whip up enough social media and talk show visceral to make me walk around town dawning noise canceling earmuffs for months.

 

 

With that being said, here is the Wild Card weekend edition of What to Look For….

 

When the Chargers Run the Ball:

Chargers Running Attack: 13^th – 122.8 ypg

Bengals Run Defense: 5^th – 96.5 ypg

San Diego’s run game the last few weeks has been impressive. Ryan Mathews leads the NFL with 534 rushing yards in the month of December and has three 100 yard games and 3 TDs in December as well. In fact, in the 5 weeks since the Bengals and Chargers played in San Diego, the Chargers have moved from 17^th in the NFL in rushing to 13^th and improved 10 YPG in that span. Lucky for the Bengals 1) it is no longer December, 2) 4 of the 5 games were in SD, 3) 4 of the 5 games were against terrible defenses (Oak, NYG, Den, KC) and 4) his lowest total of the month (61) came against the Bengals. However, while Mathews did not have a lot of yards in their previous matchup, he was effective when he ran, averaging 4.4 YPC. The Bengals need to limit Mathews on Sunday and try and make the Chargers offense one-dimensional and predictable. With the way the Bengals have played against the run all year, combined with the fact that the game is in Cincinnati, I like the Bengals ability to neutralize the Chargers run game. Even though I do worry about the Bengals ability to cover the running backs coming out of the backfield, I still give the nod to the Bengals.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Chargers Throw the Ball:

Chargers Passing Attack: 4^th – 270.5 ypg

Bengals Pass Defense: 5^th – 209.0 ypg

Philip Rivers led the NFL with a 69.5% completion and in the four games since they last played, Rivers is 4-0 with 9 TDs and 2 INTs. Keenan Allen (71 receptions, 1,046 yards, 8 TDS) looks to be a legit #1 receiver and Eddie Royal (47 rec, 631 yards, 8 TDs) presents Rivers with a top notch slot receiver.  One dimension the Bengals did not see much of in San Diego was Danny Woodhead. Woodhead led all RBs with 76 receptions, but only caught 2 passes for 13 yards in their first matchup. With the projected weather on Sunday, I would expect to see Woodhead more involved in the short passing game. With his speed, quickness and route running ability coming out of the backfield, Woodhead presents a problem for the line backers and safeties that are tasked with trying to cover him (especially Maualuga). The addition of new weapons, combined with a line that ranks 4^th in surrendering sacks (30) has sparked the Chargers passing attack from 24^th in 2012 to 4^th in 2013 and back into the playoffs for the first time in years. In their first matchup, Rivers had a decent game (252 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT), however, it is worth noting that the Bengals defense held Rivers to his lowest rating of the year (80.0), his 3^rd lowest completion percentage of the year (62.2%) and were 1 of 5 teams against whom Rivers did not have a TD/INT ratio above 1. The Bengals will rely on the success of their defense against QBs in the Jungle in 2013. In 8 home games (including the likes of Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Brady and Luck), the Bengals have surrendered 9 TD passes to 15 INTs, an average rating of 60.1. Just 1 QB had a rating above 73.1 (Luck – 113.1) and/or more TDs than INTs (also Luck 4-0). QBs not named Luck had an average rating of 52.2 and 5 TDs to 15 INTs when playing in Cincinnati. Given what the Bengals defense has done to other QBs in Cincinnati, combined with a not so pass friendly forecast, I am giving the Bengals the edge here.  

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Run the Ball:

Bengals Running Attack: 18^th – 109.7 ypg

Chargers Run Defense: 12^th – 107.8 ypg

Only once this season were the Bengals able to run the ball down a team’s throat. That team was the San Diego Chargers. In San Diego, the Bengals RBs gashed the Chargers for 149 yards on 34 attempts (4.4 YPC) – and they did so without starting RG Kevin Zeitler. Most surprising was the success of BJGE (4.6 YPC). If not for his fumble deep in Charger territory, the Bengals likely win that game 24-7. With the prediction for bitter cold and rain/snow, the run game is going to be very important. The Bengals have a line that is capable of opening holes in the run game and BJGE and Bernard offer a lot as a 1-2 punch out of the backfield. While the Chargers have improved in their run defense from 17^th to 12^th, what I saw with my eyes in San Diego tells me the Bengals can dominate the Chargers line in the frozen Jungle. Until the Chargers show me otherwise, the Bengals have the advantage here.

Advantage: Bengals

 

When the Bengals Throw the Ball:

Bengals Passing Attack: 8^th – 258.7 ypg

Chargers Pass Defense: 29^th – 258.7 ypg

In my opinion, this Bengals team is good enough to win the Super Bowl. They may have the most talented and deepest offense in the NFL. They certainly have the best defense in the AFC and a top 3 defense overall. But, they are ranked 25^th in turnovers (30). 24 of those 30 turnovers (80%) have come via Andy Dalton (20 INTs, 4 Fumbles). The Bengals will sink and swim with Dalton and his ability to protect the ball. If the 20 interception Dalton shows up in the playoffs like he did the last 2 years (0 TDs, 4 INTs), the Bengals will have a quick stay in the playoffs again. If the 33 touchdown Dalton shows up, this could be your AFC Champion and possibly your Super Bowl Champion. In their last meeting, Dalton was pedestrian (14/23, 190 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT) despite facing the 29^th ranked pass defense. Even if the weather is cold and wet, I still can’t see such a poor pass defense containing Dalton and these weapons a second time – especially in Cincinnati where Dalton has 20 TDs to just 9 INTs. Dalton’s ability to protect the ball and not hurt the Bengals will be the. As long as the Bengals can provide a good pocket for Dalton, the Bengals should have a huge advantage in the passing game.

Advantage: Bengals

 

Special Teams:

Kickoff Returns: Chargers – 23^rd (22.1 avg); Bengals – 5^th (25.1 avg)  

Punt Returns: Chargers – 25^th (7.5 avg); Bengals – 15^th (9.0 avg)

Kickers: Nick Novak is one of the better kickers in the league (9^th) and is 34/37 (91.9%). Mike Nugent is an uninspiring 18/22 (81.8%).

Punters: Chargers – 20^th (40.3 Net); Bengals – 15^th (41.0 Net); Punts inside the 20: Chargers 1^st (53.5%); Bengals 13^th (36.0%).

Kick Coverage: Chargers – 24^th (24.6 avg); Bengals 18^th (23.4 avg)

Punt Coverage: Chargers – 12^th (8.3 avg); Bengals – 21^st (9.4 avg)

 

Advantage: Push

 

Coaches:

In the regular season game, I gave Marvin the advantage. I just can’t do the same in the playoffs. McCoy may be a rookie coach and never coached in the playoffs, but I would argue at 0-4, Marvin has never coached in the playoffs either and continues to look like a rookie on the sidelines in playoff games. While Marvin has the experience, I am not sure it is too his advantage here. The 0-4 record has to weigh heavy on Marvin’s mind and will make him feel a lot more pressure than McCoy. On top of that, Marvin’s team entered the season with possible Super Bowl expectations and disappointing would not begin to describe the feeling of a loss in this game. McCoy and the Chargers were not picked my many (if any) to even sniff the playoffs, so they have to feel like they are playing with house money. Having an experienced QB who is completing 70% of his passes feeling as though he is playing with house money has to be advantageous for McCoy. Until Marvin wins a playoff game, I can’t give him the advantage in January. However, I am also not going to give the advantage to a 9-7 rookie head coach either.     

Advantage: Push

Key to the Game:

Andy Dalton. If the “Good” Andy shows up and protects the ball, the Bengals should be able to walk all over the Chargers. However, if the “Bad” Andy shows up – the one with 24 turnovers – the Bengals can be beaten by anyone, including the Chargers in Cincinnati. In his short career, Dalton has been impressive leading the Bengals to the playoffs each year, but he has been terrible one there. In the playoffs Dalton is 0-2, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 56.9% completion, 48.6 rating, 5.33 YPA and 192 YPG. Those numbers came on the road against the 2^nd and 7^th ranked Texans defense, and while Dalton faces a much softer Chargers defense at home on Sunday (28^th), a similar performance will result in another short playoff stay for the Bengals. 

 

Prediction:

No team, no coach and no QB need a victory more than the Bengals, Lewis and Dalton respectively. Dalton has heard the criticism of his playoff play for 2 years now and I think he responds. I think the “Good” Andy shows up on Sunday and the Bengals finally breakthrough in a big way for their first playoff victory since 1991.

Bengals 31, Chargers 17