Quarterback:
I just got done ripping Dalton in my week 12 recap, so call
me crazy, but I give Dalton the advantage here. Once you pick yourself up off
the floor and get back to your screen, I ask you to hear me out before leaving
this article. Look, by no means would I take Dalton as my QB over Luck if I had
the choice -that would just be silly. In fact, I think if you give the Bengals
Luck, the Bengals are 12-0. But, if you take off your “Dalton Hater” glasses
and look at this objectively, Dalton (likely because of his better cast) is
having the better year. Other than INTs and QBR, Dalton is leading Luck in
every other category – and most by a healthy margin.
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Yds
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Comp
%
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YPA
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TD/INT
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Fumbles
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Rating
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QBR
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Luck
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2,793
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58.1%
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6.68
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15/8
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5
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82.4
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60.1
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Dalton
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3,144
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61.4%
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7.3
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22/16
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4
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85.1
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49.8
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Luck has really struggled since losing Reggie Wayne in week
7. In the 5 games since Wayne’s season ending knee injury, the Colts are 3-2
with 3 close wins to lesser teams and 2 blowouts. In those 5 games, Luck is
completing just 55% of his passes, has 5 TDs and 5 INTs, a 72.0 rating and a
40.4 QBR. In 2 of his last 5 games, Luck has thrown for 0 TDs (both against
Tennessee). Now he gets to face the 6th ranked defense, on the road,
in the cold, with a weak running game and likely in poor weather. Not exactly a
recipe for success. Dalton, on the other hand, though he does have 10 INTs in
his last 5 games, he also has 11 TDs. And while he was brutal in the 1st
half in San Diego, he played fairly well in the 2nd half and showed
that as long as he takes what the defense gives him, plays within himself and
protects the ball, he can lead this team to good things. I believe Dalton is
due for a good game and with Indy and their 17th ranked pass defense
and 28th ranked run defense, I think this could be the week. Given
their supporting casts, I like Dalton better - in this matchup – not as an
overall player.
Advantage: Bengals
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Bengals
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Colts
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QB
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OL
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ü
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RB
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ü
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WR
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ü
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TE
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ü
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DL
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ü
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LB
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ü
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CB
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ü
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S
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ü
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K
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ü
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Coach
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ü
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Overall
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ü
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Offensive Line:
Neither line surrenders a lot of sacks and both rank in the
top 10 in that category (Cin 6th – 26; Indy 9th – 29). And,
neither line is particularly good at run blocking (Cin 18th – 112.6;
Indy 20th 109.4). However, regardless of Donald Brown’s success, the
Colts other back (the #3 overall pick just 1 year ago) is getting just 2.8 ypc.
The Bengals line, while has been disappointing this year, looked much better
run blocking with Whitworth at LG and Collins at LT. If Zeitler plays on Sunday
– and it sounds like he will – I like this line with Collins at LT and
Whitworth at LG. I expect a big game running the ball for the Bengals.
Advantage: Bengals
Running Backs:
I thought the trade for Trent Richardson was brilliant. He
was struggling in Cleveland, but I chalked that up to a poor line and QB no one
was worried about. Playing with a top QB like Luck, I expected Richardson to
become a huge weapon. 10 games into the trade, I think it is safe to say
Richardson was the problem and it had nothing to do with his line or QB.
Richardson has averaged just 2.8 ypc, has a long run of 16 yards, has only 2
TDs, and has been replaced in the starting lineup by Donald Brown. Behind the
same line, Brown and Bradshaw have averaged 5.3 and 4.5 ypc respectively. Though
Brown’s 5.3 ypc is impressive, he only has 71 carries on the year, has never
carried the ball more than 134 times, and after 5 years in the league, has
never been the lead back. In 2013, Brown has never had back-to-back games with
double digit carries (14 last week). The Bengals running backs have had a down
year as well, but much better than the Colts and last week BJGE looked like the
BJGE of 2012 (20-92 1 TD). The Bengals offensive line looked to kick it into
another gear when Whitworth moved to LG and Collins to LT. With Boling out for
the year and Zeitler looking to be back and healthy, I expect the same line
Sunday and similar results to what we saw in San Diego. With the weather that
is predicted for Sunday (High of 32 and possible snow, sleet and freezing
rain), I expect the ground games to have a lot to say about who wins this game
– and the Bengals have the better ground game and better backs.
Advantage: Bengals
Wide Receivers:
Even with Reggie Wayne, the Bengals had a huge advantage
here. Without Wayne, it isn’t even close. T.Y. Hilton is the Colts top WR with
56 receptions 791 yards and 5 TDs, but at 5’9” and 178 lbs, he is hardly built
like a #1. And, while Hilton has 5 TDs, he has been held out of the endzone in
10 of the Colts 12 games. The Colts #2 WR, Darrius Heyward-Bey, was not
resigned by a WR depleted Raiders team and has just 27 receptions 286 yards and
1 TD. Heyward-Bey has just 9 catches and 4 drops since Wayne went down and
would rank 7th on the Bengals teams in receiving yards and TDs. The
lack of another WR has allowed defenses to focus solely on Hilton, and in the
last 3 games, Hilton has just 15 receptions, 128 yards and 0 TDs. Indy’s top 3
WRs (Hilton, Heyward-Bey, Brazill) have combined for 91 receptions, 1,174 yards
and 6 TDs. AJ Green has 72 receptions, 1,103 yards and 7 TDs by himself. Add in
Jones and Sanu, and the Bengals top 3 WRs have accounted for 141 receptions,
1,923 yards and 15 TDs…and now they have Hawkins back. The weather on Sunday
may be the Colts best chance to cover the Bengals WRs on Sunday.
Advantage: Bengals
Tight Ends:
I liked Coby Fleener coming out of Stanford and the second
year TE is clearly Andrew Luck’s 2nd best receiving option. With 44
receptions, 544 yards and 4 TDs, Fleener is having a quality year. Unfortunately for the Colts, Fleener is their
ONLY TE. The other two healthy TEs on the Colt’s roster have accounted for 2
receptions, 18 yards and 0 TDs. The Bengals on the other hand have 69
receptions, 739 yards and 4 TDs from their TEs. Lead by Eifert (32-386 1 TD)
and Gresham (35-348 2 TD), the Bengals often go with a 2 TE set that causes
matchup problems for defenses. Expect to see a lot of 2 TE sets on Sunday, if
for no other reason than to try and nullify Mathis and his 15.5 sacks.
Advantage: Bengals
Defensive Line:
The Colts, like many teams the Bengals have seen in 2013, go
with a base 3-4 defense. Though the Colts have 30 sacks (18th), more
than half of those (15.5) come from one player – Robert Mathis – and in the 3-4
scheme, he is a line backer. Of the 30 sacks, the Colts line has account for
just 7 of them (23.3%). On top of the low sack numbers, they are also not
effective stopping the run. The Colts rank 29th in the NFL against
the run, surrendering 128.6 ypg. The d-line, however, is the strength of the
Bengals defense. Unlike the Colts, the Bengals rank 9th in the NFL
with 36 sacks, 26.5 – or 88.3% - come from the line and mainly off just 4 man
rushes. The beauty of the Bengals line is the depth. The Bengals lost the best
DT in the league (Atkins) and still have the 6th ranked defense, 8th
ranked run defense and they feature 5 lineman (4 active) that have at least 2.5
sacks – the Colts have just 2 lineman that fit that description and just 4
players overall. Big advantage for the Bengals on the d-line.
Advantage: Bengals
Linebackers:
The strength of the Colts defense is clearly the line backer
position – mainly a guy named Mathis. Mathis leads the NFL with 15.5 sacks and
accounts for more than 50% of the team’s sack total (30). Mathis will be a
challenge for the Bengals, but they have held up well against other elite pass
rushers (Peppers, Suggs etc). Of the Colts 30 sacks, their line backing corps
accounts for 23 of the 30 (76.7%). The Bengals line backing corps has been a
pleasant surprise this year. Burfict has not only proven last year was not a
fluke, he has proven to be one of the best line backers in the game. The
Bengals don’t get much pressure on the QB from their line backers (7.0 sacks),
but that is mainly a result of the d-line being so good that Zimmer needs to bring
more than just the 4 lineman. My biggest concern on Sunday is the Colts getting
Fleener matched up on Maualuga. Believe it or not, Maualuga has exactly 0
passes defensed in 2013. If the Colts see Maualuga on Fleener, expect for them
to try and take advantage of the matchup. It may come as a surprise, but I am
giving the Bengals the advantage here as well. Mathis isn’t really a “line
backer”, he is really a one-trick pony that rushes the passer – very well I
might add, but he has just 44 tackles, 15.5 of which are sacks…aka he isn’t
helping much in the run game or pass coverage. Lastly, the Colts are ranked 29th
against the run – at least half of that blame has to go on the line backing
corps.
Advantage: Bengals
Cornerbacks:
When it comes to actually taking the ball away, the Colts
corner backs have the edge with 8 INTs to Cincinnati’s 6. However, the Bengals corners
get their hands on more passes (35 passes defensed vs 32 for Indy), have more
sacks (1-0), more forced fumbles (1-0) and a higher overall pass ranking (8th
to 17th). Lastly, the Colts have faced 2 offenses with potent
receiving options like the Bengals (Den and AZ) and surrendered 700 yards, 5
TDs and 1 INT to those passing attacks. The Bengals, on the other hand, have
held opposing QBs to a 56.0 quarterback rating at PBS – and that includes
Rodgers (64.5), Brady (52.2), Roethlisberger (73.1).
Advantage: Bengals
Safeties:
While neither team has outstanding safeties, the Bengals get
more plays out of their safeties. The Bengals top 3 safeties lead the Colts top
3 safeties in INTs (3-1), passes defensed (13-6), sacks (1.5), forced fumbles
(3-0) and touchdowns (1-0). In fact, the only spot the Colts safeties have an
advantage is in tackles (148-126), which means they are being pulled up to help
stop the run.
Advantage: Bengals
Kicker:
Adam Vinatieri is 26/29 (89.7%) and 22/23 inside 50 yards. While
his 89.7% is just average (15th), it is much better than Nugent’s
16/20 (80.0% - T-23rd) and 13/16 inside 50. Hopefully this game does
not come down to a FG kicking contest. With Vinatieri’s clutch kicking and
ability to kick in bad weather (see the “Tuck Game”), the Colts would win.
Advantage: Colts
Coach:
While the Colts made the playoffs last year, it was without
Pagano. Pagano is basically a rookie head coach and the Colts have been
struggling without Wayne. Lewis, on the other hand, has had to deal with the loss
of the best DT in the game, the team’s best CB (Hall) and yet the defense seems
not to have lost a beat. Likabiliy: Pagano > Lewis. NFL Coaching Experience:
Lewis > Pagano
Advantage: Bengals
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