Quarterback:
Last week, Dalton showed exactly why Bengals fans can still
hold out hope for his ability to become a franchise QB. The Dalton we saw
against the Colts, like the one we saw for ¾ of October, is the type of QB that
could take this team to the Super Bowl. The problem, as all Bengals fans know,
is the “other Dalton” and the inability to know which one you will get. The
Steelers know what they will get each week at QB. A guy that knows how to win,
can extend plays and make something out of nothing. Despite the Steelers 5-8 record,
Roethlisberger is just as dangerous as he has always been and is having a very
good year statistically: 3,724 yards (5th), 64.0% comp%, 24 TDs (7th),
10 INTs and a 94.1 rating. With the Steelers at home, with their slim playoff
hopes on the line, I give the advantage to the 2-time Super Bowl winning QB
over the QB that is 0-2 in the playoffs.
Advantage: Steelers
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Bengals
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Steelers
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QB
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OL
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RB
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WR
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TE
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DL
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LB
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Push
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Push
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CB
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S
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K
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Coach
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Push
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Push
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Overall
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Offensive Line:
One under discussed aspect of the Steelers recent dip in
success has been the dismantling of their once dominant O-Line over the past
few years and their inability to draft suitable replacement (something the
Steelers used to do in their sleep). In 2013, only 5 teams have given up more
sacks than the Steelers. Sure, some of those are on Ben for holding onto the
ball too long, but 40 sacks in 13 games is a hell of a lot of sacks and
something the Bengals D-Line is likely very excited about. In the run game, the
Steelers are actually worse - ranked 31st in the NFL in rushing ypg
at just 77.4. Hard to believe that we are talking about the Steelers. Though
Bell missed the first game and the Bengals had Atkins, the Steelers were still
held to just 44 yards rushing (2.8 avg). The Bengals O-Line on the other hand
has been improving. Tied for 5th in the NFL with just 26 sacks
allowed (10 of which came in 2 games), they have not allowed a sack in the last
3 games and in their last 2, both with Whitworth at LG, they have averaged
159.5 ypg, and believe it or not, the Steelers are ranked just 24th
in the NFL at stopping the run (120.2 ypg).
Advantage: Bengals
Running Backs:
While Le’Veon Bell
(589 yards, 5 TDs) has improved the Steelers run game, that is not saying much.
Bell is only averaging 3.4 ypc and the Steelers as a whole are averaging just
77.4 ypg as a team. The one thing Bell does give them which Redman and Dwyer
really did not is a pass catching back. Bell does have 38 receptions for 347
yards. Like Bell, BJGE is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and had another
less than impressive game last Sunday. However, the Bengals have a something
the Steelers do not – a 2nd back. Bernard now has 1,023 all-purpose
yards (620 rushing, 403 receiving), 9 TDs and a 4.7 ypc average. Bernard gives
the Bengals a matchup nightmare for defenses and with his 140 yards last week,
Gruden seems to finally be realizing this.
Advantage: Bengals
Wide Receivers:
The Steelers have clearly become a passing team and one
surprising aspect of their season would have to be the performance of their 3
wide receivers. Antonio Brown is a very good receiver, but I think most would
be shocked to see he ranks 4th in the NFL (ahead of Green) with
1,240 yards and 2nd in the NFL with 90 catches. Along with Brown,
Sanders (58 rec, 661 yds, 5 TDs) and Cotchery (41 rec, 571 yds, 9 TDs) are
having big years as well. As a group, the Steelers top 3 WRs actually have
better numbers than the Bengals WRs in yards (2,472-2,081), receptions
(189-152) and TDs (21-17). However, these gaudy numbers are more a product of
the Steelers unbalanced offense and lack of production from their TEs not named
Miller (see below). How unbalanced is the Steelers offense? The Steelers throw
the ball 64.33% of the time – that is 4th most in the NFL. The
Bengals still have the bigger and more talented WRs in this matchup. While the
Steelers top 3 WRs go 5”10/186 (Brown), 5’11”/180 (Sanders) and 6’1”/200
(Cotchery), the Bengals top 3 go 6’2”/210 (Sanu), 6’2”/195 (Jones) and 6’4”/207
(Green). Not to mention, the Bengals have other weapons at RB and TE that the
Steelers will have to account for.
Advantage: Bengals
Tight Ends:
Heath Miller is a solid TE and like all TEs, has killed the
Bengals in the past. Though due to age and injury I don’t believe he is the
player he once was, he is still dangerous (49 rec, 524 yds, 1 TD) and with the
Steelers throwing the ball around like they do, the Bengals will have to
account for Miller. Unlike the Bengals, the Steelers have gotten very little
production out of any other TE (10 rec, 150 yds, 0 TDs…and 7/117 came in the 1st
3 games when Miller was coming back from injury). Neither of the Bengals TEs
individually have the numbers of Miller, but combined, Gresham and Eifert have 75
receptions, 795 yards and 4 TDs…not to mention that covering 2 TEs is tougher
than covering 1.
Advantage: Bengals
Defensive Line:
This one is not even close. Despite the injuries on the
Bengals line, they still have a much better D-Line. The Bengals D-Line has
accounted for 25.5 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, 1 interception and 18 passes
defensed. The Steelers? 10 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 0 interceptions and 7
passes defensed. While some of the number discrepancies have to do with scheme
(Bengals 4-3 vs Steelers 3-4), most of it has to do with a weak Steelers D-Line
that lost Hampton and were relying on a 35 year old Brett Keisel to start. The
struggles of the line are most notable in the running game where the once proud
Steelers now rank 24th stopping the run, giving up 120.2 ypg. The
Bengals rank 5th, surrendering just 98.2 ypg. When I think Steelers
football, I think of teams strong along both lines. That couldn’t be further
from the truth with the 2013 bunch.
Advantage: Bengals
Linebackers:
As has always been the case with Dick LeBeau’s 3-4 defense,
the strength is at the line backer position. The Steelers LBs – statistically –
are playing pretty well. The Bengals will need to be especially aware of the
whereabouts ofJason Worilds (7 sacks) and Lawrence Timmons (103 tackles, 1
sack, 1 FF and 5 passes defensed). As a group, the Steelers 4 LBs lead the
Bengals 3 LBs in sacks (14-8) and forced fumbles (4-1). However, despite only
playing 3 LBs, the Bengals LBs lead the Steelers in tackles (280-239), passes
defensed (13-10) and interceptions 3-1. I give this matchup a “Push” because
while the Steelers are getting bigger plays from their LBs (sacks and FFs),
they are also a huge part of a defense ranked 24th against the run.
The Bengals LBs are a big part of a defense ranked 5th against the
run.
Advantage: Push
Cornerbacks:
While the Steelers come in with the 7th ranked
pass defense and the Bengals 8th, if healthy, I would have to give the
CB edge to the Bengals as well. However, with Hall shelved for the year and
Newman shelved for 1-3 weeks, the Bengals are sans their top two CBs, and while
I like Jones, Kirkpatrick and Ghee, Jones has not had a great 2013 (and was
exposed by the Steelers in their first matchup) and Kirkpatrick and Ghee are
highly touted but are injury prone and have just a few more games of NFL
experience than me. The Bengals CBs will have their hands full with the
Steelers speedy WRs on Sunday night. The Steelers, on the other hand, have
loads of experience. 11 vet Ike Taylor is one of the best and most underrated
CBs in the NFL and has played very well against AJ and Chad over the years and while
William Gay and Cortez Allen are nothing great, unlike the Bengals 2nd
and 3rd CBs, Gay and Allen are experienced and tested (7 and 3 years
respectively).
Advantage: Steelers
Safeties:
Troy Polamalu is nearly 33 and Ryan Clark is 34, and while
not the players they once were, they are very smart and still a solid safety
duo (for the most part). While Polamalu can be caught out of position from
time-to-time and is more vulnerable to being caught guessing than ever before, he
still runs around like a wild man and still makes huge plays (2 INTs, 9 passes
defensed, 2 sacks, 3 FF and 56 tackles). Dalton will need to account for this
bunch that has 5 interceptions, 4 FFs and 14 passes defensed on the season. For
the Bengals, Nelson is a very good FS and Iloka has been very solid at SS. It
looks like Iloka will play, but with his “head injury” and Newman being out, we
may see more of Crocker at both safety and corner and maybe even the rookie
Shawn Williams. Either way, the Bengals safeties will have their hands full
with Ben Roethlisberger, Heath Miller and the Steelers speedy receivers. The
Bengals safeties are solid, but they don’t make the big plays that Polamalu and
Clark are accustomed to making.
Advantage: Steelers
Kicker:
Shaun Suisham is 24/26 and 7th in the NFL with a
92.3% field goal percentage, much better than Nugent’s 23rd ranked 16/20
(80%). Suisham is also experienced with kicking at Heinz Field, a notoriously
difficult place to kick at. The only place I give Nugent the advantage is at 50
yards+. While 50+ yards is nearly impossible at Heinz Field, should it come
down to a long FG, Nugent is 3/4 from 50+ while Suisham has not even attempted
a FG from 50+ in 2013.
Advantage: Steelers
Coach:
Stop the press! I am giving Marvin Lewis a “Push” with a
Super Bowl winning coach! 2 years ago, it would be a disgrace to consider Lewis
on the same level as Tomlin. Lewis is 4 games over .500 for his career and 0-4
in the playoffs, while Mike Tomlin is 27 games over .500, has a 5-3 post season
record, a Super Bowl ring and another Super Bowl appearance. However, Tomlin
hasn’t won a playoff game in 4 years, he is 13-17 in his last 30 games, has a
team that seems to be going the wrong direction, a locker room that seems
dysfunctional, an aging team that is tuning him out and now he is trying to
cheat to win games. Lewis on the other hand is 19-11 in his last 30 and his
team is young and seems to be getting better. I almost convinced myself to give
Lewis the straight up advantage! Almost.
Advantage: Push
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